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So, we don't agree that Pujols is a better hitter than John Jay. Ok then.
LaRussa is the idiot
LMAO
In August Jay is hitting .254 and Pujols .317. What an unexpected turn of events. I would have never, in a trillion lifetimes, thought that Pujols would outhit Jay.
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Jay. according to your own statistics, was a better hitter than Pujols April-through-July 20. and was a better hitter than Pujols that week. Which is a great deal more relevant than what they were going to do in August for you to in retrospect use to prove what they would have been likely to have done on July 20. You can't preselect some time frame (in the future!) to use to defend you point. Pujols wasn't even in the lineup that day, possibly for a reason related to his suitability to be regarded as the most desirable choice in that spot.
Jay. according to your own statistics, was a better hitter than Pujols April-through-July 20. and was a better hitter than Pujols that week. Which is a great deal more relevant
That book I recommended earlier. Really. Check it out. It might even be at your local library.
than what they were going to do in August for you to in retrospect use to prove what they would have been likely to have done on July 20. You can't preselect some time frame (in the future!) to use to defend you point.
When LaRussa was deciding who was going to bat in that crucial situation the at bat was...in the future.
LaRussa didn't care who was a better hitter last week. He wanted the guy who was going to be a better hitter in the upcoming (future!) at bat.
Quote:
Pujols wasn't even in the lineup that day, possibly for a reason related to his suitability to be regarded as the most desirable choice in that spot.
When LaRussa was deciding who was going to bat in that crucial situation the at bat was...in the future.
LaRussa didn't care who was a better hitter last week. He wanted the guy who was going to be a better hitter in the upcoming (future!) at bat.
.
From the first day Jay appeared in a MLB lineup card right up the July 20 game in question, Jay had a higher BA than Pujols, .301 to .299. There was never a day in Jay's career in which Pujols had been, based on actual performance, statistically more likely than Jay to get the required base hit to drive in the go-ahead run from third with two out. Not even counting the chance that Jay might have more likely beaten out an infield hit, which would have driven in the run.
Show me how you predict a future at bat without taking into account past statistics. I'm looking forward to seeing that.
From the first day Jay appeared in a MLB lineup card right up the July 20 game in question, Jay had a higher BA than Pujols, .301 to .299. There was never a day in Jay's career in which Pujols had been, based on actual performance, statistically more likely than Jay to get the required base hit to drive in the go-ahead run from third with two out. Not even counting the chance that Jay might have more likely beaten out an infield hit, which would have driven in the run.
Show me how you predict a future at bat without taking into account past statistics. I'm looking forward to seeing that.
Of course you use past statistics
Pujols career batting average .328
Jay career batting average .299
Pujols career minor league batting average .314
Jay career minor league batting average .301
The past statistics predicted that Pujols would hit better in August than Jay would...The past statistics predicted that Pujols would hit better on July 20th than Jay would.
And, of course, you are counting the chance that Jay would beat out an infield hit since infield hits are counted in batting average.
Whatever though. Go ahead and think that Jay is a better hitter than Pujols. Doesn't make me look clueless about baseball...
If you are sufficiently and blindly dedicated to the God of arcane statistics, it can be actually dangerous to apply any human common sense to them, because when you do, you bracket your statistics to say what you want them to say, which makes them even less useful. You can't necessarily use ten-year-old statistics to predict what a player will do today, any more than you can say Pujols was hitless in his last 9 ABs.
Nobody said Jay is a better hitter than Pujols. I said (when you were not paying attention) that in a game situation in which a base-hit is the only outcome of a PA that will meet the needs, you want the hitter most likely to get a base-hit. There is a very simple calculation available upon which to base such a prediction: BA. Crap all over it all you want with page after page of statistics and a library shelf of books to validate them, when I have a go-ahead runner on third with two outs, I want a base-hit. Jay did that better than Pujols that week and that season and for Jay's entire career. And if we had that game to replay, he might have even done better than pop foul to the catcher at that moment.
It’s called the Tony La Russa Syndrome. It’s what happens to managers who tinker with the lineup to the point of absurdity in the hopes of being called a genius.
Isn't it amazing how I can say LaRussa is a crap manager, and the discussion gets sidetracked to a game months ago in which LaRussa (at the point of sbsurdity) gets defended for making a choice that failed, because "he went by the book, which is the definition of a right choice"..
Boy, Tony managed horribly tonight, directing the Cardinals to a 13-2 loss to the Dodgers. He employed twelve position players so poorly that they were unable to score any runs until the bottom of the 9th when it was 13-0, this despite nine hits and three walks.
Among the five pitchers LaRussa ran out there, only Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel avoided surrendering runs. They combined to pitch three innings and obviously LaRussa should have had them pitching nine innings. Instead, LaRussa pinch hit for both of them, getting a groundout from Jay and a strikeout from Laird.
Congrats to PK for getting his 2,000th hit last night. It was a rather clutch hit also tying the game late, but of course the Sox couldn't close the deal.
Nobody said Jay is a better hitter than Pujols. I said (when you were not paying attention) that in a game situation in which a base-hit is the only outcome of a PA that will meet the needs, you want the hitter most likely to get a base-hit. There is a very simple calculation available upon which to base such a prediction: BA. Crap all over it all you want with page after page of statistics and a library shelf of books to validate them, when I have a go-ahead runner on third with two outs, I want a base-hit. Jay did that better than Pujols that week and that season and for Jay's entire career. And if we had that game to replay, he might have even done better than pop foul to the catcher at that moment.
Isn't it amazing how I can say LaRussa is a crap manager, and the discussion gets sidetracked to a game months ago in which LaRussa (at the point of sbsurdity) gets defended for making a choice that failed, because "he went by the book, which is the definition of a right choice"
Back to the conversation at hand.
Carpenter's ERA on August 22: 3.57
Salas' ERA on Augst 22: 2.45
What does your book tell us about who should have pitched the ninth inning?
If Jay is the better choice to pinch hit because of a .301 batting average than Pujols and his .299 batting average, then wouldn't Salas be a better choice to pitch due to a much better ERA? You also implied that Rhodes and his 5.26 ERA would have been a better choice than Salas.
It was so nice for the first four and a half innings. The A's got single runs in the first and second, and piled on five more in the third. Going into the bottom of the fifth, Oakland led 7-2, Rich Harden was cruising along with six strikeouts.
In the bottom of the fifth, Cano hit a grandslam. Lead is now 7-6.
In the bottom of the sixth, Russel Martin hit a grand slam. Now NY 10, Oakland 7.
In the bottom of the seventh NY failed to homer, but batted around and scored six more runs. 16-7.
In the bottom of the eighth, Curtis Granderson hit a grandslam, NY tacked on a couple of more runs out of meanness, 22-8.
The A's nearly came back and won it in the bottom of the ninth, but their heroic rally died after adding a single run. Final 22-9.
The Yankees are the first team in history to record three slam in a single game. The A's are also the only team to ever yield three slams in a single game, but they may not be bragging much about that.
What made all those slams possible was a surfeit of opportunities. The Yankees compiled 21 hits and drew 13 walks. Everyone in the lineup had multiple shots at hitting a slam. Jeter batted four times with the bases loaded. (Got a single.)
The start of the game had been delayed for an hour and a half by rain, and when the A's jumped out to their big lead in the 4th, a lot of the Yankee fans headed home.
I checked the ESPN Gamecast right after the second slam and wondered if any team had ever hit three. I thought that perhaps one of the power-laden Twins teams of the '60's might have done so.
The Sox and Yankees starters have been going in opposite directions lately. If this trend continues, Boston should win the division by 5 or 6 games, and the Rays could climb back into the playoff picture.
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Yankees Slam the A's
