Is California doomed to be the new Rust Belt? (2015, credit)

[Mini-apple-less]

With the water running out and an unaffordable cost of living is a mass capital flight from California inevitable? Aside from immigration and natural increase, California has been losing people for nearly a quarter of a century and I could see it accelerating once the water restrictions start getting Draconian. The effect to the farming industry will likely ripple too with higher food costs and such.

Is California doomed?

[mstnghu2]

What in the world are you talking about? Most of California has a naturally dry climate. We've had many droughts in the past. All these doomsday predictors don't seem to remember the last major one we had back in the 80's. It eventually was over and there were plenty of years of heavy rainfall after that.

Where do you get this ridiculous idea that California is losing population? Check your facts. California's population has been increasing. In fact, here in the Bay Area where I live, we've had extensive job growth and many people are moving here.

Yes, the drought is serious, but the fact is people who have no clue what they're talking about keep acting as though they're experts on the topic. The drought will end at some point. Period. It's just a matter of when. My biggest gripe is that the state isn't investing any money in creating desalination plants. We have this huge body of water called the Pacific Ocean right at our doorsteps and nothing is being done to utilize it. I find it very hard to believe that we don't have technology available in the year 2015 to make it cost-effective.

The forum moderators should post a "sticky" in the CA forum that contains all drought-related topics. It's getting old and not to mention annoying.

[Mr5150]

If we had an unaffordable cost of living no one would be living here. Then ironically the COL would fall big time and...

A 25% cutback in water use is hardly draconian.

My guess is the OP is from Texas or LA.

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by mstnghu2

My biggest gripe is that the state isn't investing any money in creating desalination plants. We have this huge body of water called the Pacific Ocean right at our doorsteps and nothing is being done to utilize it. I find it very hard to believe that we don't have technology available in the year 2015 to make it cost-effective.

I've done a lot of reading on this. It actually is more cost effective to run, especially if you use the reverse osmosis process (rather than boiling the water). Here are the main issues:

1. Cost to build - I agree that it is a worthwhile long-term investment, but it will cost a ton to build enough capacity up and down the coast. This is probably the main reason why this hasn't taken off to become a significant portion of California's water solution (similar to solar power not yet supplying most of California's power needs, despite plentiful sunshine).
2. Environmental Issues - There are significant issues in both the collection of the water as well as the disposal of the salt deposits:
a. Collection - There are concerns that pumps will inadvertently harm sea life while collecting water. There are solutions to minimize the impact here, but again, this will cost more money.
b. Disposal - The salty water that would need to be dumped back into the water is much more concentrated than the surrounding sea water. This would also have significant adverse environmental impacts to sea life. Personally, I think this can also be solved and the salt can probably be harvested for consumption, but I haven't read many studies on the feasibility and would imagine this would also cost a significant amount.

I like the idea, but much like solar power, high speed rail, etc., it just doesn't seem that California taxpayers and legislators have the appetite for this large of an infrastructure investment. Now, if the drought gets even more severe, that may change, but it would probably take about 10 years of planning/building for these plants to be operational on a massive scale.

[Mini-apple-less]

I don't think we're so much talking about a drought, but rather a permanent shift in climate. California is either going to have to face the reality it's now Nevada West, or it will pay dearly.

[Hemlock140]

Perhaps the immigration and natural increases are more than making up for those fleeing, however plenty of people from other states are still moving there - CA is not in the top ten fastest growing states, but is up 4.6%.

List of U.S. states by population growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

West, South are fastest growing in latest census data - LA Times

[Mini-apple-less]

Originally Posted by Hemlock140

Perhaps the immigration and natural increases are more than making up for those fleeing, however plenty of people from other states are still moving there - CA is not in the top ten fastest growing states, but is up 4.6%.

List of U.S. states by population growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

West, South are fastest growing in latest census data - LA Times

I think you're missing my point. It's not that it's a shame California isn't growing that fast, if anything it's a blessing, what I mean is that aside from impoverished people in Mexico (and even them in fewer and fewer numbers every year), and people who have no choice but to live in California (newborns), few people are clamoring to live there.

[Margiela]

Originally Posted by mstnghu2

What in the world are you talking about? Most of California has a naturally dry climate. We've had many droughts in the past. All these doomsday predictors don't seem to remember the last major one we had back in the 80's. It eventually was over and there were plenty of years of heavy rainfall after that.

Where do you get this ridiculous idea that California is losing population? Check your facts. California's population has been increasing. In fact, here in the Bay Area where I live, we've had extensive job growth and many people are moving here.

Yes, the drought is serious, but the fact is people who have no clue what they're talking about keep acting as though they're experts on the topic. The drought will end at some point. Period. It's just a matter of when. My biggest gripe is that the state isn't investing any money in creating desalination plants. We have this huge body of water called the Pacific Ocean right at our doorsteps and nothing is being done to utilize it. I find it very hard to believe that we don't have technology available in the year 2015 to make it cost-effective.

The forum moderators should post a "sticky" in the CA forum that contains all drought-related topics. It's getting old and not to mention annoying.

Well, he's right. Far more people leave California than move here, but the high birth rates more than makes up for the loss. And anywhere with huge Hispanic population will have high birth rates. Natural increase is responsible for the majority of our growth.

I don't care though. I don't know why people are obsessed with having huge populations. The fastest growing areas in the world are pretty nasty, imo. Look what the huge population boom did to California - severe droughts, the seas of underclass people dragging down quality of life, high unemployment. I truly don't think this place was intended for our current population and this state was undoubtedly a better place before it got to its current population.

California would be a much nicer place to live if the population was halved imo.

[DriveNotCommute]

This topic doesn't make sense in all sorts of ways.

California's basic manufacturing has declined alongside of the rest of America's but unlike the actual Rust Belt there has been continuous growth in new high tech ones. A lot of manufacturing still happens in California, it's just more often than not in industries that require some science literacy or other skill.

The old aerospace industry here was heavily dependent on federal contracts and money. Our newer high tech, pharma and biotech industries which replaced them are not so dependent on government contracts.

More pedantically, the topic is poorly worded. It implies that California will outright replace the existing Rust Belt region. We know that the Rust Belt is still out there, although with a few patches of recovery scattered in a non-uniform manner. Also, California by itself can't be a new Belt of any kind. The topic would have to include a wider region covering at minimum parts of Oregon, Nevada or Arizona was part of the alleged decline.

Originally Posted by mstnghu2

What in the world are you talking about? Most of California has a naturally dry climate. We've had many droughts in the past. All these doomsday predictors don't seem to remember the last major one we had back in the 80's. It eventually was over and there were plenty of years of heavy rainfall after that.

If a statement is repeated often and loudly enough it sometimes sticks and becomes "accepted truth" in the public eye, regardless of facts.

The water issue is the latest "California sucks!" fad because it is serious enough that people of any ideology can agree with its premise that a water shortage can build into a significant problem. But like the old aphorism about "give an inch and they will take a mile," naysayers will use that acceptance to portray the image that we already have a problem beyond all salvation.

Originally Posted by Mr5150

If we had an unaffordable cost of living no one would be living here. Then ironically the COL would fall big time and...

A 25% cutback in water use is hardly draconian.

I give the OP partial credit for this. Unaffordable for who? The lower classes always have trouble so let's set them aside.

$30k-$50k is often regarded as lower middle class, right? That's pretty inadequate pay out here. I would go as far as to mark $30-35k as being the actual poverty level in many parts of California. At the same time, it's not as if California's industry and entire population can be comprised of ONLY senior personnel.

I do have to say that the rising COL has had the effect of cleaning up and improving many cities though.

[jbunniii]

If any industry flees California, it will probably be agriculture, which is only 2% of our economy but uses 80% of our water. We'll have more than enough water to go around, even in dry years, if we stop wasting it on growing thirsty crops in a semi-desert.