CALEXIT: Would you support a secession? (Los Angeles, San Francisco: rentals, buy, to live)

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by BBMW

Why Congress wouldn't entertain letting CA secede? Why would the give up the economic benefit, the tax revenue, the land and resources. To do so would be idiotic. A better question would be, why would they.

Remember, this was tried before, and ended very badly for the secessionists. And given the way things have changed now, I think the chances of a non-negotiated secession would be even less likely to succeed.

This was mentioned before and it isn't accurate. If CA were to just outright declare independence, there really isn't a whole lot the feds could do that wouldn't harm them. Waging a war to keep a state like CA in would do enormous damage to the US economy. There is no scenario as someone mentioned earlier that wouldn't. It would be wiser to let CA and set up an open trade relationship with it which would benefit the US than wage a costly and economically disastrous civil war. I'd hope that the federal government has more sense than the people in this thread who predict otherwise. If not, all the more reason...

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

This was mentioned before and it isn't accurate. If CA were to just outright declare independence, there really isn't a whole lot the feds could do that wouldn't harm them. Waging a war to keep a state like CA in would do enormous damage to the US economy. There is no scenario as someone mentioned earlier that wouldn't. It would be wiser to let CA and set up an open trade relationship with it which would benefit the US than wage a costly and economically disastrous civil war. I'd hope that the federal government has more sense than the people in this thread who predict otherwise. If not, all the more reason...

There is a lot the Fed could do. It doesn't have to be military either. The Fed would probably figure any harm done to them would be paid back after they gained control over the State which would then be under Martial Law. If they cared about the economy more than their power we would all be in better shape. Either Party.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

It would be wiser to let CA and set up an open trade relationship with it which would benefit the US than wage a costly and economically disastrous civil war.

Disastrous "civil war"?

It would be the quickest capitulation in history.

How exactly would California fight back against having it's ports, shipping lanes, and water supply cut off, and a National Guard force of even 20,000 men?

Most people in California who support secession don't even know how to put food on the table without Starbucks or a Whole foods within a 2 block distance, let alone "fight an armed insurgency".

[BBMW]

The Feds might be willing to give up the coastal strip containing most of the useless malcontents if it could keep most of the land area and resources.

Of course the feds could avoid the entire headache by telling the CA secessionists to screw off (at the barrel of a gun if necessary.)

Originally Posted by Gentoo

Again, that's a headache neither side would want. Sounds like what you want but a secession is the parent country losing the seceding territory. That's how it is.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by BBMW

The Feds might be willing to give up the coastal strip containing most of the useless malcontents if it could keep most of the land area and resources.

Of course the feds could avoid the entire headache by telling the CA secessionists to screw off (at the barrel of a gun if necessary.)

... and that's exactly what would happen.

California secessionist only have what John Nash called in economic theory a "non-credible threat". They have desire to secede, but do not have the means or ability to actually realize that threat, so from the view of the opposing player (the Federal government), it knows that any move California makes is simply in jest, or idiocy.

Either way, the majority of CalExit secessionist deplore gun ownership, living off the land, and have spent the past 10 years calling "SHTF preppers" white extremist. Not exactly a good formula for creating an insurgent fighting force that would be forced to fight with interrupted public utilities, and no easy access to Starbucks WiFi so they can cry on Facebook about how hard they're getting their asses kicked.

[BBMW]

Whether it might be by some objective measure wiser or not, it wouldn't be allowed to happen. The full weight of the force of the US Federal Government, civil, criminal, and military if necessary would come down on the State of California if it tried to leave unilaterally.

In point of fact, they'd end up like the south under reconstruction. There statehood would be revoked, they'd have no representation, and they'd be directly governed by the Feds as non-state territory.

Originally Posted by Gentoo

This was mentioned before and it isn't accurate. If CA were to just outright declare independence, there really isn't a whole lot the feds could do that wouldn't harm them. Waging a war to keep a state like CA in would do enormous damage to the US economy. There is no scenario as someone mentioned earlier that wouldn't. It would be wiser to let CA and set up an open trade relationship with it which would benefit the US than wage a costly and economically disastrous civil war. I'd hope that the federal government has more sense than the people in this thread who predict otherwise. If not, all the more reason...

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by BBMW

Whether it might be by some objective measure wiser or not, it wouldn't be allowed to happen. The full weight of the force of the US Federal Government, civil, criminal, and military if necessary would come down on the State of California if it tried to leave unilaterally.

In point of fact, they'd end up like the south under reconstruction. There statehood would be revoked, they'd have no representation, and they'd be directly governed by the Feds as non-state territory.

Imagine how that would impact a second term for Trump.

[Curmudgeon]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Disastrous "civil war"?

It would be the quickest capitulation in history.

How exactly would California fight back against having it's ports, shipping lanes, and water supply cut off, and a National Guard force of even 20,000 men?

Most people in California who support secession don't even know how to put food on the table without Starbucks or a Whole foods within a 2 block distance, let alone "fight an armed insurgency".

Cut that figure well less than in half. Such soldiers cannot be counted upon to fight their friends, neighbors and family. That's a good thing!

[Curmudgeon]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Imagine how that would impact a second term for Trump.

Remember, yur talkin' California. The rest of the country might applaud it.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

Remember, yur talkin' California. The rest of the country might applaud it.

Oh, you mean that CAlexit (and it's failure) would end up being a way for CA to actually get Trump elected for a 2nd term???