Moving from CA's urban areas to suburbs/exurbs (Los Angeles, Sacramento: top neighborhood, sale)

[apple92680]

Now that people can work remotely from home, I've been noticing an interesting trend.

Where I live in the Antelope Valley, inland from Los Angeles by 55 miles, a home on my block in West Palmdale just sold for $375,000 three days after it was listed. It was bought by a couple with three children.

I happen to know the realtor who was involved in the sale of this home and she told me that since working remote has become a "thing" with a lot of large companies, people that were renting in the large urban areas of California are going further inland and snapping up homes, as opposed to remaining eternal renters.

The family who bought the home on my block are moving in from the Woodland Hills neighborhood in the San Fernando Valley where (if you look), average rents on a3-bedroom apartment can exceed $2,500 a month. The couple who bought the home here both work remotely, but the wife must be present one or two days a month in Burbank for meetings.

I suppose most people would rather own than keep renting? When you read the Arizona and Nevada forums on C-D, people in there are crowing about an "expected" influx of people from California's urban areas into both of those states (AZ & NV). That may happen, to a degree, especially with single people and the childless. However, I tend to think most of those who stay in California will be families and younger people with children.

It would be interesting to know, in the long run, where remote workers go (and why? which factors influence them, etc.) I suspect the majority of those in Nor Cal will fan out of the Bay Area and into Central Valley cities like Tracy, Lodi, Manteca and the Sacramento region. Others will go to Vallejo, Fairfield, Richmond, Pittsburgh, Brentwood, etc.

Here in So Cal, many will fan out of the higher-rent areas in LA, the inner valleys, the coastal burgs and the OC cities and head inland to the Inland Empire I suspect? Some will come out here to the Antelope Valley or Bakersfield, where home ownership without an albatross of a mortgage is doable.

For the most part, I predict that younger urban working families will want to stay in California close enough to the large metros of LA and the Bay, to get culture and amenities when needed. This seems to be the case, anyways.

[Count David]

Fanning out to these areas has been a thing long before remote working existed as it does now.

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by Count David

Fanning out to these areas has been a thing long before remote working existed as it does now.

True, I just think it will accelerate now. What will be interesting, though, is the impact on commercial real estate in these former workplaces in urban areas.

I'm thinking a ton of them will downsize and not need the space they were using, which will cause the commercial market to lose some value.

[wac_432]

You are correct. Nobody wants to live in Gilead. Those who wind up there anesthetize themselves with large houses and big screen TV's. Even the desert areas of The Resistance are still more fun to live in and safer from getting shot in a drive-thru by a Trumpistanian angry about hearing you daring to speak Spanish or Mandarin to your family.

Plus, if you live in CA, you are used to going to the beach or mountains without having to rent an AirBnB. You can still make a day of it (or LA attractions) from Bakersfield if you time traffic right.

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by wac_432

You are correct. Nobody wants to live in Gilead. Those who wind up there anesthetize themselves with large houses and big screen TV's. Even the desert areas of The Resistance are still more fun to live in and safer from getting shot in a drive-thru by a Trumpistanian angry about hearing you daring to speak Spanish or Mandarin to your family.

Plus, if you live in CA, you are used to going to the beach or mountains without having to rent an AirBnB. You can still make a day of it (or LA attractions) from Bakersfield if you time traffic right.

A retired teacher I worked with (mentioned her before in another forum) is moving to Prescott, AZ and she keeps badgering my wife and I about following her and her husband there. I have NO interest in doing so, whatsoever.

Just not my thing.


I'll gladly be here and pay CA income tax to be so close to everything we've got.

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by apple92680

It would be interesting to know, in the long run, where remote workers go (and why? which factors influence them, etc.) I suspect the majority of those in Nor Cal will fan out of the Bay Area and into Central Valley cities like Tracy, Lodi, Manteca and the Sacramento region. Others will go to Vallejo, Fairfield, Richmond, Pittsburgh, Brentwood, etc.

So, as a Bay Area resident, I'd say the communities you're highlighting aren't very desirable. They are for lower-middle class Bay Area residents who wanted somewhere cheaper but still within commute distance (albeit a terrible commute).

If remote work takes off and people can work from anywhere, I'd predict those that can't afford the Bay Area (or don't want to live here) will leave the area altogether and buy a large house in a top neighborhood in a cheaper part of the country. That seems much more desirable than a high crime, soulless exurb in NorCal.

[Mr5150]

We have a friend who works for google. Use to stay in a rented room in Palo Alto during the work week. Now he works from home in eastern CA. No plans to do otherwise when things get better and it appears google is on board with remote working.

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

So, as a Bay Area resident, I'd say the communities you're highlighting aren't very desirable. They are for lower-middle class Bay Area residents who wanted somewhere cheaper but still within commute distance (albeit a terrible commute).

If remote work takes off and people can work from anywhere, I'd predict those that can't afford the Bay Area (or don't want to live here) will leave the area altogether and buy a large house in a top neighborhood in a cheaper part of the country. That seems much more desirable than a high crime, soulless exurb in NorCal.

One thing I did not factor in was the possibility of some movement of people from Nor Cal down to So Cal. That could easily happen, as housing stock is more ample here, and therefor more affordable.

You could live in a newer home in a large section of LA County for almost 2/3 the price of the Bay Area counties. Maybe less?

As for your personal prediction, that's what the guys in AZ and NV forums are saying. Yes, it may happen to an extent, but I best over half end up staying within California.

[Moddedintegra56]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

So, as a Bay Area resident, I'd say the communities you're highlighting aren't very desirable. They are for lower-middle class Bay Area residents who wanted somewhere cheaper but still within commute distance (albeit a terrible commute).

If remote work takes off and people can work from anywhere, I'd predict those that can't afford the Bay Area (or don't want to live here) will leave the area altogether and buy a large house in a top neighborhood in a cheaper part of the country. That seems much more desirable than a high crime, soulless exurb in NorCal.

tracy/mountain house area seems to be pretty desireable based on how expensive it is there now for a new single detached home as it is close to the bay area with no traffic and tracy itself has most amenities with dublin/livermore/pleasanton being close by, and also its not stockton with all the crime. And many will argue sacramento region has been highly desireable for the last couple of years showing many from the bay have flocked there to still live in big city without the big cost, and some highly desirable cities are in the sac region: elk grove, folsom, roseville, rocklin, el dorado hills, granite bay etc but those places arent cheap anymore though you get a nice house in nice neighborhood for same price you get ghetto in the east bay

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by Moddedintegra56

tracy/mountain house area seems to be pretty desireable based on how expensive it is there now for a new single detached home as it is close to the bay area with no traffic and tracy itself has most amenities with dublin/livermore/pleasanton being close by, and also its not stockton with all the crime. And many will argue sacramento region has been highly desireable for the last couple of years showing many from the bay have flocked there to still live in big city without the big cost, and some highly desirable cities are in the sac region: elk grove, folsom, roseville, rocklin, el dorado hills, granite bay etc but those places arent cheap anymore though you get a nice house in nice neighborhood for same price you get ghetto in the east bay

Have you ever seen the traffic on 580 (pre-COVID) in commuting from Tracy/Mountain House over the Altamont Pass and through the Tri-Valley? There's a reason why its cheaper. And then you have the issue of what to do on weekends. There is no "there" there.