Houston Could Pass Chicago as Third-Largest City in U.S. in Next Decade (Naperville: crime rates, bankruptcy)

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by edsg25

project into the future is the blood sport on C/D, along with ranking our cities in a neat, simple, and unquestionable list. but,of course, our projections are often very short sighted. and sometimes they miss the obvious.

like houston. and climate. and climate change. so project yourself some 30 years and ask yourself honestly will Houston really be bigger? or even the same? i realize for many out there, climate change is as phony as the notion that Barrack Obama was born in the good old USA. but others of us, those in the reality based community, climate change is real and Hawaii is not Kenya and is the US.

and some of us are pretty well convinced that "climate change" is not something "out there" in the future. it is here. it is now. it is becoming more and more evident. and its growth in change not only happens in real time but seems to be happening at an alarming, almost breathtaking rate, far, far removed from even those of us who buy into the notion believe could happen.

so in real time, 30 years is a far longer stretch than it once was. and i would hate to think what type of hell-on-earth Houston may very well be in 2045, but i'm fairly sure that it wouldn't fall into my standards of what is "livable".

I hate to throw in climate change because it a monkey wrench and flies in the face of the very notion of endless supply for endless demand and endless growth that is life force of C/D.

The effects of climate change are hard to predict. We can say, "Wow Florida is screwed, glad we're in Chicago", but I have a feeling it will be very difficult for us too. In fact, there could be such social upheaval that large urban areas become terrifying places for everyone. We just don't know what the effects will be at this point in time.

I do think it's wise to stay by a large body of fresh water. Low-lying coastal cities are also problematic. Beyond this, it's really difficult to see how we will be affected. Will there be mass migrations of people? Social upheaval? Severe storms on a regular basis causing damage and knocking out essential services? I don't feel good or smug about my living choices anywhere yet... Only time will tell. This is a global problem, and no one will be immune.

[MassVt]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

The effects of climate change are hard to predict. We can say, "Wow Florida is screwed, glad we're in Chicago", but I have a feeling it will be very difficult for us too. In fact, there could be such social upheaval that large urban areas become terrifying places for everyone. We just don't know what the effects will be at this point in time.

I do think it's wise to stay by a large body of fresh water. Low-lying coastal cities are also problematic. Beyond this, it's really difficult to see how we will be affected. Will there be mass migrations of people? Social upheaval? Severe storms on a regular basis causing damage and knocking out essential services? I don't feel good or smug about my living choices anywhere yet... Only time will tell. This is a global problem, and no one will be immune.

I've got a hunch that you might be better off in Chicago than say, NYC or Boston, or LA/SF, but severe weather is pretty impossible to predict. Might have better luck with long-term weather patterns..

[chicagogeorge]

Census estimates city to have lost 20,000 in 2016.

Chicago sees population drop for 2nd year in a row | WGN-TV

[NorthSideSoxGuy]

Story is a bit misleading. The 20,000 number refers to the whole metropolitan region, not just Chicago city limits. I believe the last city number from 2016 showed a really small increase (somewhere in the neighborhood of like 500). But in any case, not great growth and as a region, decline.

Lots of reasons for this I'm sure, but I'd say it's a mix of violence on the S & W sides as well as the state's budget crisis.

[prhill]

Let Houston pass us who cares. The less people here the better. More people means more problems. The last thing I want is for Chicago to be like LA and New York City! Those places are bad because they have too many people. besides Chicago was just ranked 7th as most visited city by tourists. I did not even see Houston on that list. So that shows people do not care about population. They want to visit a city that has a lot to offer

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by prhill

Let Houston pass us who cares. The less people here the better. More people means more problems. The last thing I want is for Chicago to be like LA and New York City! Those places are bad because they have too many people. besides Chicago was just ranked 7th as most visited city by tourists. I did not even see Houston on that list. So that shows people do not care about population. They want to visit a city that has a lot to offer

Houston may or may not pass Chicago as a city, not a metro area. There's still a sizable difference there.

Chicago's population growth (or lack thereof) is pretty wonky. Much of the north side and a growing number of west side neighborhoods are more desirable now than they've ever been. People are buying SFHs in Wicker Park for over $1,000,000. That wasn't happening ten or fifteen years ago.

Then there are the far west and south sides which are seeing a resurgence in violence due to the fracturing of the local gangs. Violence, coupled with few employment prospects, cause an exodus of blacks who end up leaving the region all together.

As described here before, Chicago is a tale of two or maybe even three cities. There's the flourishing white collar Chicago which encompasses much of the north side and growing number of west side neighborhoods, the stable working class or affluent enclaves of the bungalow belt, south side lakefront, and fringe neighborhoods, and then the war zones of the south and west sides that grab the national media's attention and paint Chicago as essentially an inhabited gun range.

Lot to fix. Some within the controls of City Hall, some not. The manufacturing type jobs are not coming back to Chicago. At least not in the capacity that people romanticize them. They will continue to make their way south and then out of the country...or be automated. There are going to be some serious shifts to our economy in the next decade or so. I would expect that places down south are nearing their peaks and will soon begin to see their low-skill service jobs eliminated. That very much includes Houston's energy sector.

[beaniemac]

Originally Posted by prhill

Let Houston pass us who cares. The less people here the better. More people means more problems. The last thing I want is for Chicago to be like LA and New York City! Those places are bad because they have too many people. besides Chicago was just ranked 7th as most visited city by tourists. I did not even see Houston on that list. So that shows people do not care about population. They want to visit a city that has a lot to offer

houston has 667 sq miles of land. it should have a larger population than chicago. thats' a ridiculous amount of sprawl. texas is so spread out its ridiculous.

[nana053]

Originally Posted by prhill

Let Houston pass us who cares. The less people here the better. More people means more problems. The last thing I want is for Chicago to be like LA and New York City! Those places are bad because they have too many people. besides Chicago was just ranked 7th as most visited city by tourists. I did not even see Houston on that list. So that shows people do not care about population. They want to visit a city that has a lot to offer

Houston is a city for business, not a tourist destination at all. It is very spread out and more like a city than a suburb.

[MassVt]

I'm willing to bet that many of Chicago's losses are simply to a neighboring suburb, and well within the metro's boundaries. A core city's population isn't all that significant in the greater context..

[DavePa]

Originally Posted by nana053

Houston is a city for business, not a tourist destination at all. It is very spread out and more like a city than a suburb.

Where does this look like it is? To you.. same blocks.
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8003...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8008...7i13312!8i6656

Just one thing missing? Guess hint... they are blue and black.

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8008...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8056...7i13312!8i6656

I'd think the next is somewhere by me in the Northeast . Below one
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.7986...7i13312!8i6656

Just some irony LOL.