CHICAGO population grows 2%, remains 3rd largest city (Evanston, Oak Park: home, taxes)

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by Don Cuccino

Census was extended to October 31 2020 precisely because of covid

OK, then what has gone on since 10/31/20? Post-Covid, whenever we enter that world, will be interesting to see for all big cities.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by MPK21

OK, then what has gone on since 10/31/20? Post-Covid, whenever we enter that world, will be interesting to see for all big cities.

I think there is definitely some population loss in the downtown area. Since last summer I know a real estate agent who's pretty big in Northbrook saying that she's never seen so many people trying to buy homes in the Northbrook area coming from the downtown area. Whether that's just a temporary blip or part of a longer-term trend has to be determined. Restaurants and other businesses took a huge hit first from covet and then from the rioting many have not recovered hopefully they will as time goes on. But I'll tell you one thing since the Riots of last summer downtown is definitely not as safe as it was before.

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

I think there is definitely some population loss in the downtown area. Since last summer I know a real estate agent who's pretty big in Northbrook saying that she's never seen so many people trying to buy homes in the Northbrook area coming from the downtown area. Whether that's just a temporary blip or part of a longer-term trend has to be determined. Restaurants and other businesses took a huge hit first from covet and then from the rioting many have not recovered hopefully they will as time goes on. But I'll tell you one thing since the Riots of last summer downtown is definitely not as safe as it was before.

Covid, lockdowns, riots and surging crime changed a lot of things in the city in the last 1.5 years. We can all think of several reasons the city took hits. Young people will always live in big cities but whether the other groups recover is another story. I think remote work, affordability and the desire for space will be a longer term deterrent to big city growth and favor secondary city or vacation destinations. The desire to work where you live...instead of live where you work will drive future population growth.

[Northeasterner1970]

Real estate has been exploding everywhere, no matter if it’s Chicago, north-brook or St Louis or Cleveland. I think you saw a small blip of people leaving back in April and May 2020, but outside of that, construction is still continuing in the city and home prices keep rising, both in the city and suburbs.

[Don Cuccino]

Originally Posted by Chicagoland60426

It's about time the infrastructure and housing that sprout up over the past decade finally bear fruit. But, let this slight boost serve as a call for action that something needs to be done to reverse the depopulation of communities on the south and west side. Meanwhile in NYC, the equivalent of a major city was added to its already enormous and compacted population within the decennial census. I hope Chicago can someday get to that level of growth and see a population of 3.6 million once again. It won't get there with just north side and downtown alone; not unless some aggressive Manhattanization takes place.


In the meantime while we wait for the breakdown of the 2020 census by community area, CMAP community snapshot has released the the 2015-2019 ACS estimates for the 77 community areas of Chicago. In retrospect, it represents an undercount of Chicago given what's been revealed for 2020, but at the same time some community areas have continued to experience growth and demographics shifts. Lakeview is estimated to have 101k people and at this point around 8k more people than Austin, which continues to decline. The Near Northside is right on the heels of Austin and likely has knocked it out of the #2 spot by the time of the 2020 census. I can see it topping 100k within the next 3-5 years, since it has more potential to add way more people than Lakeview.

Seems like the patterns of the 90s have continued. The edges of the city and suburbs are becoming more black and hispanic and the inner ring city is becoming more white.

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

I think there is definitely some population loss in the downtown area. Since last summer I know a real estate agent who's pretty big in Northbrook saying that she's never seen so many people trying to buy homes in the Northbrook area coming from the downtown area. Whether that's just a temporary blip or part of a longer-term trend has to be determined. Restaurants and other businesses took a huge hit first from covet and then from the rioting many have not recovered hopefully they will as time goes on. But I'll tell you one thing since the Riots of last summer downtown is definitely not as safe as it was before.

Quite true, I know at least 10 people that left the downtown area since last summer's scary and destructive rioting. Most of these people not only left the downtown area but have all relocated out of state, and not Indiana or Wisconsin. A couple I know sold and moved to the southwest suburbs. Those that rented where gone right away, the others sold their places before they moved-out.

You're point about this being a blip or a longer-term trend is the key to my comments. Like many cities, the restaurant and hospitality industries have taken a huge hit just from Covid and the cities with the urban destruction have been really hit to the point that many of these businesses and the smaller non-chain businesses may never recover.

These Covid variants, as we move into late summer, are not a good sign obviously and the longer downtowns remain empty, the deeper the economic hit will be. Remote working is here to stay for many; who wants to go back to that daily commuting grind and stress? Commercial real estate is another market we need to focus on as we assess the damage and recovery from Covid, whenever the end of this really happens.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by ToriaT

But I am on a variety of progressive, liberal Facebook pages and there are similar numbers of people wanting to get out of the red state places and go to a "blue" place where they are surrounded by people more like minded.

I suppose if you are on liberal Facebook pages it would seem that is the case. In the end, the Census is out so we can see which places are growing and which are not. Based on that, its definitely not similar numbers looking to move to blue states.

Disclaimer: Im liberal myself, living in a blue city meets all the requirements I have.

[MSchemist80]

Originally Posted by Northeasterner1970

Real estate has been exploding everywhere, no matter if it’s Chicago, north-brook or St Louis or Cleveland. I think you saw a small blip of people leaving back in April and May 2020, but outside of that, construction is still continuing in the city and home prices keep rising, both in the city and suburbs.

Real-estate, thanks to our corrupt, dysfunctional government charging exorbitant property taxes in a vain attempt to stay afloat, is still significantly depressed in the Chicago area as evidenced by this FRED Chart. Lake county Indiana and Kenosha County Wisconsin saw much better growth than their adjacent Illinois counties particularly Lake county Illinois. Chicago area realestate has performed the worst of any major metro area in the country except for St. Louis.

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by MSchemist80

Real-estate, thanks to our corrupt, dysfunctional government charging exorbitant property taxes in a vain attempt to stay afloat, is still significantly depressed in the Chicago area as evidenced by this FRED Chart. Lake county Indiana and Kenosha County Wisconsin saw much better growth than their adjacent Illinois counties particularly Lake county Illinois. Chicago area realestate has performed the worst of any major metro area in the country except for St. Louis.

I know several condo owners that are getting not much over what they paid several years go. The assessments, including large special assessments, utilities and, of course, Chicago real estate taxes are all a combo of losing money in the end at resale.

Maybe if you bought a short-sale 10 years ago you're making some real money but otherwise, not really.

[personone]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

I think there is definitely some population loss in the downtown area. Since last summer I know a real estate agent who's pretty big in Northbrook saying that she's never seen so many people trying to buy homes in the Northbrook area coming from the downtown area. Whether that's just a temporary blip or part of a longer-term trend has to be determined. Restaurants and other businesses took a huge hit first from covet and then from the rioting many have not recovered hopefully they will as time goes on. But I'll tell you one thing since the Riots of last summer downtown is definitely not as safe as it was before.

This is an ugly truth that many have glossed over. The ambiance and “feel” of downtown is not what it once was pre-riots. Maybe it’s the presence of remaining closed storefronts or something else. There have also been a lot more high profile violent crime incidents that have taken place downtown post-riots (the past year-plus). Years prior, for as bad as crime may have been, it never spilt into downtown to the degree it has in the past year plus.

This coming year will be big for the city. It all comes back to getting its crime under control. This has been an issue for the past 20 years, but it will really need to be dealt with now for the sake of the city’s future.