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It could happen.......But then there's still the possibility of higher cost of living driving people (and development) "down the street" to nearby San Antonio before it happens. So my guess is "who knows".
Not a chance. San Antonio has a heavy military presence. Military towns and skyscrapers don't mix. to much risk.
I think Dallas may have FAA-mandated height restrictions because of Love Field.
It's unclear what, if any, FAA restrictions exist for Austin. Beyond that the only restrictions downtown are the Capital View Corridors, which the lots I mentioned avoid. (Hence why they are very likely to go big).
Right now Austin has 22 buildings under construction or built over 400', Dallas has 34. But 21 of Austin's 22 have been built since 2000, compared to just 7 in Dallas. Do you think Austin could surpass Dallas for 400' buildings in the next 20 years?
Yes, and it will happen in the next 10 years. Austin's skyline will be the top skyline for sure.
Not a chance. San Antonio has a heavy military presence. Military towns and skyscrapers don't mix. to much risk.
There are US cities with a military presence and a decent sized skyline, but I honestly wasn't thinking about San Antonio gaining skyscrapers. I see San Antonio as potentially taking residents as the cost to live in Austin rises. Some of the growth forecasts for Austin next decade are already a lower percentage than last decade's growth. Cost of living is a huge factor when it comes to relocations. Let's not forget that not long ago, Vegas seemed to be unstoppable. Denver was flying high too and then slowed recently. Seattle was a little sleepy and then picked up. I'd be a rich man if I could accurately predict the development of a US city 20 years out.
Austin could very well be the next southern city to break the 5 million metro mark. Or it could be the next city to fizzle-out at 3 million. It's hard to know.
There are US cities with a military presence and a decent sized skyline, but I honestly wasn't thinking about San Antonio gaining skyscrapers. I see San Antonio as potentially taking residents as the cost to live in Austin rises. Some of the growth forecasts for Austin next decade are already a lower percentage than last decade's growth. Cost of living is a huge factor when it comes to relocations. Let's not forget that not long ago, Vegas seemed to be unstoppable. Denver was flying high too and then slowed recently. Seattle was a little sleepy and then picked up. I'd be a rich man if I could accurately predict the development of a US city 20 years out.
Austin could very well be the next southern city to break the 5 million metro mark. Or it could be the next city to fizzle-out at 3 million. It's hard to know.
I don't think Austin's downtown construction and metro population growth are necessarily all that linked. Of the housing being added in Austin to support the growing population, very, very little of it is made up of 400'+ downtown buildings.
What is driving it is:
- Demand for urban, walk/transit friendly lifestyle in Austin. There are only a few areas of Austin that are zoned appropriately for this, downtown being one of them. This is probably escalating, if anything, as tech workers pour in from more urban places like SF, Seattle, and NYC.
- Demand for downtown office space. This could slow after the pandemic, but then again, maybe not.
- Demand for hotel space in Austin as tourism, convention, and business traffic grows. I doubt this goes anywhere once the pandemic is resolved.
The point being, even if rising cost of living causes the overall metro population growth to slow down, the densification of downtown is likely to continue. What would be more concerning is if economic growth slows down, and in that case the cost of living isn't going to be an issue.
It could happen.......But then there's still the possibility of higher cost of living driving people (and development) "down the street" to nearby San Antonio before it happens. So my guess is "who knows".
Some of the burbs in between the two have already been growing rapidly too
I don't think Austin's downtown construction and metro population growth are necessarily all that linked.
The densification of a downtown can definitely occur without massive metro area growth. I just remember reading an Austin Business Journal article which mentioned Memphis, Oklahoma City, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin as having the highest apartment vacancies in the Nation. This doesn't necessarily mean that Austin is due for a slow down, but it could mean that other cities with lower vacancies (such as Dallas) are overdue for a boom.
If they move forward with it, Walnut Creek in Austin will be the first 300m building in Texas outside of Houston. Also the second 1000ft+ building after JP Morgan Chass Tower in Houston. And may even surpass it (exact numbers for the buildings height aren’t certain yet). Dallas had a similar project but it got canceled.
The densification of a downtown can definitely occur without massive metro area growth. I just remember reading an Austin Business Journal article which mentioned Memphis, Oklahoma City, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin as having the highest apartment vacancies in the Nation. This doesn't necessarily mean that Austin is due for a slow down, but it could mean that other cities with lower vacancies (such as Dallas) are overdue for a boom.
1. If true, that's probably because Austin is building insane amounts of apartments.
2. I don't think that city-wide apartment vacancy rates say much about the downtown market. Again, very, very little of the housing being built in Austin is in downtown skyscrapers. That is a niche market that is pretty much completely independent from large apartment complexes in the Lakeline area, for example. If you had stats showing that downtown condos weren't selling, that would be a different story.
In a sense, the growth of the skyline since 2000 is impressive compared to previous 20 year periods. But compared to other cities, it's a lot less impressive than I expected. Also, the skyline is sorta mediocre looking--is it just me?
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