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I thought it would be interesting to see what people think the 5 largest United States cities will be in 2050. Post populations and comments as to why you feel this way, don't just order them off in a list!
1. New York, New York
Population: 9,400,000
I don't see anything passing New York by 2050. I know some people are going to say the city will be well over 10,000,000 by then, but I don't see anywhere for NYC to grow. Growing up takes so much time and money that I just don't see it happening.
2. Los Angeles, California
Population: 5,000,000
I think the growth L.A has experienced is going to start to slow down as Hispanic Immigrants become more and more "Americanized".
3. Chicago, Illinois
Population: 3,800,000
Chicago's population has the reputation for going up, and then falling right back down, but with Urban living making a comeback, I think it will keep a slight lead over Houston.
4. Houston, Texas
Population: 3,600,000
Houston is the perfect location for some, it offers suburban living in a major city. I think this will still be appleaing to many people come 2050.
5. Philadelphia, Pennslyvania
Population: 2,100,000
I think the spot for number five is going to be a battle. It will be VERY close between Pheonix, Philadelphia, and San Diego, but I hope Philadelphia can pull through and win it.
I thought it would be interesting to see what people think the 5 largest United States cities will be in 2050. Post populations and comments as to why you feel this way, don't just order them off in a list!
1. New York, New York
Population: 9,400,000
I don't see anything passing New York by 2050. I know some people are going to say the city will be well over 10,000,000 by then, but I don't see anywhere for NYC to grow. Growing up takes so much time and money that I just don't see it happening.
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Staten Island is no where near built out, I think it is currently the fastest growing Bourough.
Also, i dont see Chicago gaining 1million people by 2050. Chicagoland will probably be around 12mil but my guess city limits will probably stay around 2.6-2.8mil
Interesting idea for a thread. I wouldn't even hazard a guess about the populations of American cities in forty years. Even the order is an iffy prediction, because a lot can change in that time. Today's boomtown may be tomorrow's stagnant city. But, to take a shot at a little speculation . . .
I'm not quite making the connection about why the Americanization of Hispanics would slow down L.A.'s growth, but I do hear that L.A. is growing more slowly at present than it once was. I'm guessing that L.A. will be bigger than you're predicting, but probably won't catch NYC in that time.
NYC may have more room to grow up than you're thinking, if you think beyond Manhattan. However, I'm guessing that you're correct that NYC proper will see slow growth, though I expect that the metro area will grow quite a bit (which will probably be the case with most big cities).
One that people seem to have forgotten so far is Atlanta. Given the fact that the trend still seems to favor Sun Belt growth, combined with Atlanta's central location as a hub for travel up and down the east coast, and between east--both the Northeast and the Southeast--and west, I'm guessing Atlanta may nudge into the top five by 2050. Although it's also possible that Atlanta may be an extreme example of major growth in the metro area while the city proper population grows fairly slowly, which leads me to speculate that Dallas, another centrally located city, which still shows a lot of growth in the city proper as well as the metro, may be another contender for the top five by 2050.
A lot of variables in play here, water being one major one, and annexation another unknown.
But my city predictions for 2050 would be:
1. New York City
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Houston
5. Phoenix
How about metro areas?
I think L.A. has a real chance of overtaking NYC here. I think Chicago is a safe choice at #3. The Bay Area is a total wildcard, but with government growth (big if), Washington-Baltimore could challenge for #4. #5 would be a toss-up with Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, and Philly. Don't rule out Atlanta in the top 5. I think we can rule out Detroit and Boston as high growth areas. Very speculative question, but interesting. Oh and sorry for just giving a list, I'm too tired to calculate actual pop. projections!
I don't see LA growing fast enough to catch NYC. The gap is too huge at present to be overcome in 40 years. You'd have to assume NYC would decline big time and LA more than double its present population. I just don't see BOTH of those things happening at the same time.
For 3 and 4, I think it'll be very close. I assume Chicago will remain about where it is now, while Houston will continue growing/infilling. Houston has such an enormous land area that you'd think it just has to fill in. 5 will be Phoenix plain and simple IMO, with ~2.5 million probably. Philadelphia doesn't have a chance. Atlanta would have to increase its population five-fold to even be in contention. I'm not counting on that.
Also, i dont see Chicago gaining 1million people by 2050. Chicagoland will probably be around 12mil but my guess city limits will probably stay around 2.6-2.8mil
Gentrification is only going to add more people if they continue building condos and small townhomes. The Southside of the city is basically one huge vacant lot. If the city focuses on improving the southside and continues to conserve land, the city will climb well over 3,000,000 and maybe even closer to 4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lammius
For 3 and 4, I think it'll be very close. I assume Chicago will remain about where it is now, while Houston will continue growing/infilling. Houston has such an enormous land area that you'd think it just has to fill in. 5 will be Phoenix plain and simple IMO, with ~2.5 million probably. Philadelphia doesn't have a chance. Atlanta would have to increase its population five-fold to even be in contention. I'm not counting on that.
The infilling of Pheonix and Houston is what made me think about spots 3 and 5. If Houston can reverse its sprawl then there is no doubt it will pass Chicago. The city limints are over 600sq miles. Same goes for Pheonix. The one major issue these cities have though is fresh water. Chicago has Lake Michigan which can sustain the region for MANY years.
My Guess for the Top 10.
New York 9.5 Million
Los Angeles 6.0 Million
Houston 4.0 Million
Chicago 3.3 Million
Phoenix 3.0 Million
San Antonio 2.4 Million
Dallas 2.3 Million
Las Vegas 2.0 Million
San Diego 1.8 Million
Philadelphia 1.6 Million
south side is kinda scary at night.....at least to people who odnt know it. Especially around bronzeville!! I'm originally from the southside and that area is sketchy. I hope they fill in the holes soon after the economic situation ends. Strange how chicago is the 3rd densest city but compared to ny and sf and even boston, there's vancant lots and houses/apartments
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