Colorado sets new unemployment record (Denver, Boulder: sales, real estate, lease)

[Bob from down south]

The BLS stats just released today showed one state--yep, Colorado--set a new series high for unemployment. The seasonally adjusted number is now 9.1%, the not seasonally fudged number is 9.9%, and the numbers are even more damning if you consider the shrinking labor force (the employment rate denominator) as a result of the falling labor participation rate.

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

So even with a labor force which is reported to have shrunk YOY (a figure not reconciled with continuing state population growth) we're not just at a cyclic high, we're at the highest state UE rate recorded since the BLS state/regional series started in 1976. And there's been no improvement since the recession allegedly ended.

Just thought I'd point that out before we get the usual Spring deluge of posts asking "Do you think it'll work out OK if I quit my job here in <pick your place> and move to Colorado?"

[Josseppie]

Not a surprise as the unemployment rate will most likely go up for a bit as the economy gets better and more people are looking for a job.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

Not a surprise as the unemployment rate will most likely go up for a bit as the economy gets better and more people are looking for a job.

Huh?

"The patient has died, but the good news is his fever is going down..."

[naturegirll]

This won't be very good news for all the happy people here: Happiest in Hawaii: Aloha State Tops Well-Being List - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20110307/sc_livescience/happiestinhawaiialohastatetopswellbeinglist - broken link)

[motoracer51]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

Not a surprise as the unemployment rate will most likely go up for a bit as the economy gets better and more people are looking for a job.

That makes absolutely no sense.

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by motoracer51

That makes absolutely no sense.

When the economy is bad for a extended period of time and people can not find work they stop looking so the unemployment rate does not accurately reflect what is going on. As the economy improves more people start looking for work again so in the short run the unemployment rate actually goes up a bit then drops as the economy continues to improve and they find work.

[jazzlover]

Bob neglected to mention these:

Report: Colorado unemployment worse than first thought - The Denver Post

Not to toot my own here, but astute readers of this forum might want to note that I've been predicting most of what is reported in this article for well over a year now. This is one of those "God, I hate it when I'm right" moments.

A key quote in the above article:

"Usually when you have job losses the way we have them, people stop moving to your state," she said.

But a late start to the recession here and artificially low unemployment rates may have enticed some job hunters from harder-hit states, said Richard Wobbekind, an economist with the University of Colorado's Leeds School of Business.

"Maybe it was signaling us being a lot more attractive than we are," he said. "It is false advertising." (emphasis added)

The weaker labor statistics shed light on puzzles such as why government revenues have continued to come up short and why home sales remain anemic despite stable prices.

"Why are we in the top five states for in-migration when we don't have any job growth?" asked Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker with Premier Mortgage Group in Boulder.

Barnes said he thought something "odd and new" was triggering a renewed deterioration in area housing markets — but the weak job numbers offer an explanation.

The revised unemployment rates also line up better with the huge job losses recorded in the state, said Wobbekind.

And they help explain why job seekers could send out thousands of applications without a nibble.

Then there is this:

More Colorado kids living in poverty - KDVR (http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-more-colorado-kids-living-in-poverty-20110310,0,4984319.story - broken link)

The tag line is that Colorado leads the United States in the growth of children living in poverty over the last 10 years. That's a pretty dismal statistic, considering that for most of that period Colorado was supposedly still booming. You can certainly bet that the developers and their real estate lackeys are trying to quash this story--the fact that Colorado's affordability index when one compares living expenses (especially for housing, thanks to the real estate bubble) with incomes in Colorado is pretty unfavorable certainly is one of the causes of this problem.

And, finally:

Jeffco Public Schools to announce nearly $40 million in cuts - The Denver Post

So, at a time when children living in poverty is increasing tragically in Colorado, our elected leaders--who have spent decades subsidizing developers and population growth that has not paid for itself, with the costs of those socialized upon the existing taxpayers--are now facing the prospect of having to slash expenditures for education at a time when having a decent education system in this state may be more crucial than ever.

All of this is just one more example of Colorado's (and Colorado is certainly not alone here) failing economic model based on real estate development and speculation, the non-productive F.I.R.E. economy, and a failure to grasp the basic concept that economic growth may lead to population growth, but that population growth in a resource-constrained and/or non-productive economy only leads to a decline in material and environmental living standards, severe private and public financial and fiscal distress, and festering social problems. These latest statistics for Colorado simply show all of those ugly chickens coming home to roost in this state.

[motoracer51]

There is a huge (probably 12' x 25' ) banner at Home Depot in Grand Junction that says : NOW HIRING.

I've also noticed that job posting on Craigslist have increased quite a bit.

From my own experiences being in commercial real estate, I've just leased approx 10K to various new businesses opening in the valley.

Not saying things are all rosy, but blood isn't flowing in the streets like some would like you to believe.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by motoracer51

There is a huge (probably 12' x 25' ) banner at Home Depot in Grand Junction that says : NOW HIRING.

I've also noticed that job posting on Craigslist have increased quite a bit.

From my own experiences being in commercial real estate, I've just leased approx 10K to various new businesses opening in the valley.

Not saying things are all rosy, but blood isn't flowing in the streets like some would like you to believe.

Hmm, so you blow off the fact that the Mesa County seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is now 11.1%?

Sorry, but I see a whole lot of vacant commercial space, "going out of business" banners, and bankruptcy notices showing up all over rural Colorado. The business people I talk to, and I talk to a lot of them, are all in "trying to survive mode" right now--and a lot of them confide that they are losing money and question how much longer they can hold on. Some of these are experienced, shrewd business people that have been in business for decades. I put a whole lot more stock in what they say than some dumb banner flying at Home Depot.

[Colorado Rambler]

The situation in Cortez appears glum right now, as well. I sure hope the tourists will come in their usual numbers this summer, because right now there is almost no work down here. I have one friend who just got laid off, another who has been looking for work for a year, etc. The only work I have been able to find is at a local motel as a part time desk clerk for minimum wage. The manager is going to have to go to Scottsdale for surgery soon and asked me to fill in for her at $75.00/day, and the days are 14 hours long! If I refuse, I'm afraid she'll replace me with someone who is desperate enough to work for so little money (she'll find one here). I guess I'll do it, but I'm not happy.