12-14-2013, 06:38 AM
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read
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Reputation: 2157
This will be quite interesting to see how long the cold air can hold out before the change over. This morning the system seems a bit west of where it was expected to go. This is good news in that the warm air can now get further north and faster. If the systems starts to bend toward the east (rather than north), then more cold air will come down = and more snow. As of now, on radar it is looking at least north, northeast. In the coming hrs today the flow will back toward a more southerly direction, so it will really be a foot race to see what happens.
Here was the update....NWS upton seems to have picked up on I this. We'll see if they mention it more in the next update.:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM BEING THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION IN
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LI...WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERING OF THE TRACK JUST EAST OF LI. IRONICALLY...THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...BUT IS TRENDING WARMER AND COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE COMPLICATING FACTOR OR QUESTION FOR THIS STORM IS AT WHAT TIME DOES THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN HAPPEN AT THE COAST...AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN INLAND. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME...WITH INLAND AREAS FROM 03Z TO 09Z. AT THE COAST...THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER COINCIDES WITH THE TIME OF THE BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PCPN. SO IF IT HAPPENS AS EARLY AS 00Z...THERE MAY ONLY BE INCH OR TWO ACROSS LI/NYC...WHILE A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS LATER OULD RESULT IN AS MUCH 4 OR 5 INCHES.
THIS CHANGEOVER TIME WILLALSO BE CRITICAL INLAND
AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCES NORTH WITH
THE AID OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OUT OF THE E/SE.
85H WINDS FOR THIS EVENT ARE SOUTHERLY AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. .
THUS THE ERODING OF THE COLD AIR AND THE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID. THE SECONDARY LOW DOES NOT TAKE OVER IN TIME TO MAINTAIN THE DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE AREA THAT STARTS THE DAY.
This is how it looks right now:
Storm is just north Nashville, TN moving northeast...
Rain/snow line (blue/green) has reached southern New Jersey...
You can see the difference where the cold air is trying to hang on - its' 12 F in Binghamton, NY.....and 33 F in Wilmington, DE - less than 200 miles south.
Yellow line is the line to watch as it moves north. How fast and how much? Will the secondary low off the coast form? Will it develop in time?.....
?
Last edited by wavehunter007; 12-14-2013 at 07:10 AM ..
12-14-2013, 06:46 AM
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
679 posts, read
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Reputation: 141
Snowing at a good rate here in Danbury. Already have a powdery 1"+
12-14-2013, 07:08 AM
21,621 posts, read
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Reputation: 9776
Snowing in the Ridgefield/Danbury area right now. About an inch already, but it seems to have stopped. I have a lot to do today so I hope it holds off until this afternoon or evening.
12-14-2013, 07:27 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read
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See the darker blues? Moderate band entering Fairfield now. Snow should pick up a bit then let up quick.
Close up Radar and Temps holding steady near 20°
12-14-2013, 07:27 AM
Location: Fairfield, CT
6,981 posts, read
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It started earlier than I expected. I thought I had the morning to take care of some errands, but it was already going when I got up and the roads are slippery. I had to step up my schedule, take care of the really essential stuff, and postpone the rest. I'll enjoy the chance to be forced to stay home.
12-14-2013, 08:19 AM
Location: In a house
13,250 posts, read
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Reputation: 20198
It looks slippery out there. Although I have just a tin box (a Scion XD), I'm a very cautious driver in bad weather and don't slide around as much as some people who have AWD.
Regardless, there's not enough accumulation yet for me to bother driving to the store. I'll put on my boots and walk the 5 blocks to pick up just a few things
12-14-2013, 08:31 AM
10,007 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
AnonChick
It looks slippery out there. Although I have just a tin box (a Scion XD), I'm a very cautious driver in bad weather and don't slide around as much as some people who have AWD.
Regardless, there's not enough accumulation yet for me to bother driving to the store. I'll put on my boots and walk the 5 blocks to pick up just a few things
What a perfect day to stay home..enjoy the family and Christmas season. Days like this make living in New England fantastic.
12-14-2013, 08:45 AM
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
679 posts, read
1,190,430 times
Reputation: 141
2" here on the deck. Snowing pretty heavily now. Fairly large flakes are falling with light winds.
12-14-2013, 08:49 AM
10,007 posts, read
11,164,409 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tubeworm
2" here on the deck. Snowing pretty heavily now. Fairly large flakes are falling with light winds.
snow seems to have picked up here.. snowing moderately now
edit agree snowing heavily...danbury area
12-14-2013, 08:52 AM
Location: New London County, CT
8,949 posts, read
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Flying in to BDL from Miami. Flight is on time so far. I hope the roads are clear for the drive home.
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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