[RunD1987]

Started out in the 50s cloudy then showers then 40 degrees then rain then 35 degrees then sleet then 32 degrees and snow today
Weird weather today

[Cambium]

Something brewing around March 2-3 timeframe? Big storm? Snow? Maybe? Still 9 days away. We'll see.

[Cambium]

Pretty much what I said...

https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/s...50194128756736

A ridge to remember

The record February heat was caused by an unusually pronounced kink in the jet stream that brought a big trough of low pressure over the Western U.S.
(accompanied by very cold temperatures) and a record-strength ridge of high pressure that locked in over the eastern half of the U.S. This ridge brought exceptional warmth miles above the eastern U.S. and northwest Atlantic. All else being equal, warmer air is less dense than cooler air, so a deep, warm air mass raises the heights of various benchmark heights such as 500 mb (roughly the midpoint of the atmosphere’s density, almost four miles up). As shown in Figure 2 below, the 500-mb map at 12Z Wednesday (7 am EDT) was simply mind-blowing for mid-February.

Pronounced jet stream kink causing extreme weather across the entire U.S.

As is usually the case when the jet stream locks into an extreme configuration for multiple days over the U.S., extreme weather occurs over most of the country. In the Western U.S., where a sharp trough of low pressure has been anchored to compensate for the intense ridge of high pressure locked in over the Eastern U.S., numerous daily record low temperatures marks have been recorded this week (though no monthly low temperature records have been set, as monthly cold records for February are less likely to be set in the last half of the month and in a warming climate). Record lows for the date were set on Wednesday in Denver, Colorado (-7°) and Olympia, Washington (13°). Daily record lows were set Tuesday morning in Billings, Montana (-15°); Rapid City, South Dakota (-9°); Sacramento, California (26°); Oxnard, California (35°, tied); San Francisco (36°) and Oakland, California (31°).

[Loriact]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Something brewing around March 2-3 timeframe? Big storm? Snow? Maybe? Still 9 days away. We'll see.

I hope not. We're supposed to fly out early the morning of the third for a wedding in Tucson. Fingers crossed!

[Poseidon3290]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Something brewing around March 2-3 timeframe? Big storm? Snow? Maybe? Still 9 days away. We'll see.

Going to FL march 1st to the 4th, Figures!! haha

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

You should read some studies done on the 500mb level, I think you would find fascinating.


First - Everyone you ask that question might have a different reasoning.


2nd.... the anticipated Stratospheric warming event. The Stratosphere warmed so rapidly (SSW-Sudden Stratosphere Warming) that when it does, it disrupts the Polar Vortex. So we were all wondering where the PV would go......


See the stratosphere temps? Went from record cold to record warm in matter of days/week.


At 65,000 feet up there, this is pretty significant and yes, it happens but now we are more aware of the effects of it thanks to technology and studies.







So Typically that Vortex heads to Ontario or Quebec giving us long duration Arctic blasts but guess what happened........ The SouthEast Ridge was so strong and the timing was just off that the Polar Vortex headed to Western Canada, not Eastern!


So with a Ridge over Alaska like that, the Jet stream pushed way south to Mexico. Breaking record cold temps in Western U.S. The temps aloft over the West was on the extreme end of the spectrum.


This is called an amplified pattern (aka extreme).


So because the trough was in the West was so deep, the Ridge in the East was able to pump higher and send all that southern warmth up. Heights we able to rise


Now you can add some blocking in the Atlantic as well but I wont go there because it doesn't look significant enough for me to use as another reason..


All part of the whole puzzle we call weather and climate..







Now you might ask again... but why were the heights so high over the East for this time of year? ... I'll answer that with a question... why were they so low in the West? Not extreme there but it's all just too complex for a simple answer.


The more the patterns amplify the more extremes we have. We may have had a "quiet" period for like 30 yrs where the Jet stream was only amplified like this once a season so the extremes weren't as obvious. The Jet was less wavy.


Also...Less Arctic Ice = More Polar Vortex movement which is another piece of the puzzle.


I avoid focusing on the surface and I keep learning about what drives our weather and patterns. (Upper heights/Jet Stream) Not our light Bulbs or SUV's. (I had to throw that in there )


But of course generating more heat at the surface weather it be from underground or above, those extra few degrees will make an extreme seem more crazy.


Holy crap this got long!


Here's some food for thought..... what if our seasons are starting or ending earlier? The SouthEast Ridge core usually shows up like that in March-April... So if things are happening quicker, sooner, or more often; then because its February it will be like we haven't seen before.


Lastly..... Don't forget... It's the highest height since 1949 only. I am 1000% positive it happened in the 1930s.


I wish I can link you to some cool studies. I don't have off hand. Maybe a start with an introduction?

This is very interesting. I see it in a slightly different light than you. Where I agree with you is that to simply say "climate change caused this" and nothing else is too simplistic though where you see it as an absolute"not at all" I see it as being a slight factor. I do agree that it likely happened as well in the 1930s, but what I wonder (and not sure you nor I can truly answer this definitively) is if you had the same exact atmospheric conditions on this date in say 1935 in terms of heights, position and shape of jet stream, etc. except that the composition of the atmosphere in terms of CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" were what they were in 1935 would we have the temperatures we had? You will say yes. My belief is it would still be very close, but cooler like maybe it would've been 74 instead of 78 in NYC and 76 instead of 80 in Newark, etc. because the change in atmospheric composition took the situation and made it a couple of degrees warmer than it would've been given everything else constant. Again, not saying this to start a debate this time around, just giving my thoughts, as you would say, I had to have it in there; complicating it a bit in my mind is the fact that DC did have a warmer Feb. day in the 1930s than they had this time around (84 vs. 82). Even the tweet from Bob Henson you posted seems to indirectly agree with me on this in that it said "warming climate" was one reason none of the Western record lows were Feb. monthly record lows (though it also notes that it's hard to have a record low for all of February at the end of the month since it is normally a bit warmer than the beginning).

Unrelated, except that it was yesterday's weather, BDR suddenly warmed up briefly around 5 or 6pm and tied their all time Feb. record of 67 after all.

[Cambium]

Overnight models continue to have this potential snowstorm around March 2nd.


Here is the Euro on left, Canadian on right snowfall totals.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Overnight models continue to have this potential snowstorm around March 2nd.


Here is the Euro on left, Canadian on right snowfall totals.

Why does the Euro show almost nothing to the east (i.e. eastern 2/3 of CT)? Is this one of those weird storms where it (as opposed to the Canadian) sees the rain/snow line as being east/west instead of north/south?

[ads94]

The Canadian gives me heartburn.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by ads94

The Canadian gives me heartburn.

lol! It's March, what else is new in recent years. Wouldn't be surprised if we get 4 feet and -40°

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Why does the Euro show almost nothing to the east (i.e. eastern 2/3 of CT)? Is this one of those weird storms where it (as opposed to the Canadian) sees the rain/snow line as being east/west instead of north/south?

It does look odd. Just played the loop and it's actually very interesting.. So Europe is projected to get this arctic blast and the airmass is coming from "the East"...not north or west.. There is an Eastward movement. That eastward movement enters the north Atlantic so it's basically blocking this storm from moving into New England.


I swear I can't tell you how many times I've seen the timing of things be so interesting with weather events/extremes.

As much as that would be interesting to see, I hope that eastward movement doesn't come that far.