[whatsgoingon4]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

My theory is this all just suddenly ends when we least expect it. The current downward trend is a good but not sure sign. I think when hopefully it gets down more at some point it will be low enough that more and more people will just say enough is enough and this will be handled differently. Maybe if there are no spikes we start seeing these changes in April.



The one thing that bothers me is how there was virtually no flu this year. While that sounds great it's clear that it is likely due to masking and distancing but that doesn't mean we should do that forever just so we have no flu as we have to balance the severity of flu vs. the mental health aspects of all this. What I think might happen is what happened in Asian countries for awhile after SARS in 2004, like maybe the elderly and/or those who are sick will voluntarily wear masks when they go out for awhile but it won't be mandated anymore. NYC just advocated (not mandated) double masking, and while I can see where in some ways it can help, I don't see it as sustainable either.

I tend to think that the end could be sooner and less expected than we think. Although I'd imagine this doesn't end all at once. There won't be a day where they just say the war is over and we can go back to normal. It will be a phased thing, whether it's orchestrated that way or not, it will naturally happen over time. Obviously nobody wants to overpromise that things can be normal by this or that date as nobody knows, and that could be why we hear such wildly various predictions that go back and forth by the day it seems.

There does seem a high level of caution on going "back to normal" and I do think we have to make sure that things stay going down and we don't end up where suddenly we have waves again. Although I think this is likely a seasonal virus so there could well be increases regardless of behavior as well.

I have heard some talk lately about closing schools in future for flu outbreaks, and I really disagree with the idea. Kids are less likely to have complications (you could argue what if they give it to older family, etc) but I really think at some point we have to just live with these illnesses like we have been.

Also if we did prevent flu season this year due to masking and distancing, it could in fact cause us to be worse off in the future due to weak immune systems and possibly mutated flu virus. It's even been speculated that strict lockdowns and measures have even caused some of these supposedly deadlier and more contagious coronavirus variants to be so widespread, instead of causing the virus to weaken.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

I tend to think that the end could be sooner and less expected than we think. Although I'd imagine this doesn't end all at once. There won't be a day where they just say the war is over and we can go back to normal. It will be a phased thing, whether it's orchestrated that way or not, it will naturally happen over time. Obviously nobody wants to overpromise that things can be normal by this or that date as nobody knows, and that could be why we hear such wildly various predictions that go back and forth by the day it seems.

There does seem a high level of caution on going "back to normal" and I do think we have to make sure that things stay going down and we don't end up where suddenly we have waves again. Although I think this is likely a seasonal virus so there could well be increases regardless of behavior as well.

I have heard some talk lately about closing schools in future for flu outbreaks, and I really disagree with the idea. Kids are less likely to have complications (you could argue what if they give it to older family, etc) but I really think at some point we have to just live with these illnesses like we have been.

Also if we did prevent flu season this year due to masking and distancing, it could in fact cause us to be worse off in the future due to weak immune systems and possibly mutated flu virus. It's even been speculated that strict lockdowns and measures have even caused some of these supposedly deadlier and more contagious coronavirus variants to be so widespread, instead of causing the virus to weaken.

All good points and I agree. And I think given how disruptive (even if often necessary) closing schools were for COVID, to do it for the flu is ridiculous. COVID was a bigger problem than the flu.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

I've seen similar predictions. I remember one professor from a local college was saying late last November/early December (when I myself actually was recovering from Covid) that late April it would be over and all restrictions could be removed. I've heard other predictions of March-June timeline.

I don't believe it myself as I think too few have had the virus to have natural immunity and not enough vaccinations yet. There is also the idea that the virus is seasonal so it may slow down in the summer naturally but come back worse in the fall/winter.

Though I think generally, we have likely seen the worst of this already. I think it's unlikely to get worse than it was in 2020 unless something big changes.

This puts it at about 30% of the country. That’s pretty high. I never bought the 70%+ herd immunity theories.

https://covid19-projections.com/#vie...ions-estimates

[norcal2k19]

Originally Posted by Stylo

I do, we see very minimal differences in places with strong and weak mask usage. In fact some of the states that have stricter policies have WORSE numbers. Also cases skyrocketed last year in many places after mask mandates. Virus gonna virus is a phrase I’ve heard, that’s true with something this contagious and when you consider the challenges of getting a country like the US to do anything akin to a Wuhan lockdown.

Really nothing has been particularly effective. I still think letting er rip, so to speak, but strongly isolating all risk groups, and barring large indoor gatherings, for a shorter time would’ve led to less deaths, less second order effects, and a shorter pandemic. But any scientist that has suggested that was shunned.

I think it made sense during the early months to hunker down because it caught the world by surprise unprepared, but these Draconian measures can’t be done again unless we are dealing with something much more deadly and not as crazy prevalent/contagious. Hopefully lessons are learned, and the politicization on both sides has a poor legacy. Look at all the pressure on Newsom and Cuomo lately. Good. It wasn’t just Trump messing things up.

Thankfully, all things considered and given the state of politics, Lamont did a pretty good job. I’m generally happy with him.

I'm a bit pleased with Lamont so far as well. You can tell he's just a get stuff done kind of leader and a bit modest about it too compared to Newsom and Cuomo. Very on brand for CT.

[michael917]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Some of it is to minimize overwhelming hospitals. I agree it won't end it, but do you really think the numbers would've been the same without doing this? During many parts of this our hospitals were overloaded with COVID to the detriment of other needs for a hospital. Where I'll partially agree is "flattening the curve" turned to "do this to hold us over until vaccines" to "this will end this eventually" in the media, the latter of which is untrue.

Right here is what I consider to be the biggest proponent of people not following the rules. Every time people were asked to make a sacrifice (give up a favorite holiday, for one), it was so we can end this. Then, with each sacrifice, the pandemic just raged on. So of course a lot of people stopped following the rules. It's like the boy who cried wolf -- you can only promise "just one more holiday" so many times before people no longer feel a point in complying.

[7 Wishes]

Uh oh....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nd=coronavirus

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Uh oh....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nd=coronavirus

More sensationalistic drivel from the media.

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Uh oh....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nd=coronavirus

Does not surprise me. A lot of these states never really followed the guidelines. My sister tells me in Arizona, a lot of people still don't mask up. My wifes mother is retired and living in Montana......and she tells us that people do not wear masks there. I have been to Montana once in 2011 to visit, beautiful but very rogue and people basically do whatever they want to do. Let's hope there's not another surge like last summer.

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Does not surprise me. A lot of these states never really followed the guidelines. My sister tells me in Arizona, a lot of people still don't mask up. My wifes mother is retired and living in Montana......and she tells us that people do not wear masks there. I have been to Montana once in 2011 to visit, beautiful but very rogue and people basically do whatever they want to do. Let's hope there's not another surge like last summer.

Give me a break. The “not surprised because they didn’t follow guidelines” is also drivel. California did. Their cases rose significantly. Connecticut did. They experienced a huge spike in the fall. Same with New York. People need to stop believing what the media tells them to believe.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

More sensationalistic drivel from the media.

I didn't want to post a ton of articles but trend is happening in Germany and the UK too......may or may not be, time will tell.

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Give me a break. The “not surprised because they didn’t follow guidelines” is also drivel. California did. Their cases rose significantly. Connecticut did. They experienced a huge spike in the fall. Same with New York. People need to stop believing what the media tells them to believe.

Yeah, Fox News in particular Oh and stop believing Trump and QAnon too....(I don't mean you but people in general)

Masks etc. may not be perfect, but do you really think we'd have the same or less numbers than we have now if we did nothing? Especially in terms of overwhelming hospitals?