[Cambium]

GFS says 40s Friday. Euro says 60s. Lolol

I assume the timing of the front is different with them.

Meet in the middle and figure 50s

Wonder what the NWS discussions are saying about it.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

GFS says 40s Friday. Euro says 60s. Lolol

I assume the timing of the front is different with them.

Meet in the middle and figure 50s

Wonder what the NWS discussions are saying about it.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...&highlight=off

Here's NWS BOX:

Thursday and Friday:

A break from the winter chill as this period of the forecast brings a spring-like air mass to the region. 925mb temperatures are +9C to +12C, extending to 850mb where temperatures are +7C to +10C! That is an impressive 12C to 15C above normal. This results with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Friday there are low probabilities of mid 50s across southeast Massachusetts. Nevertheless, with our forecast we don`t expect any record breaking highs. The records for Thursday are 56F to 60F, while Friday are between 64F and 72F.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...&highlight=off

Here's NWS BOX:

Thursday and Friday:

A break from the winter chill as this period of the forecast brings a spring-like air mass to the region. 925mb temperatures are +9C to +12C, extending to 850mb where temperatures are +7C to +10C! That is an impressive 12C to 15C above normal. This results with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Friday there are low probabilities of mid 50s across southeast Massachusetts. Nevertheless, with our forecast we don`t expect any record breaking highs. The records for Thursday are 56F to 60F, while Friday are between 64F and 72F.

Thanks! Impressive warmth from 2500-5000 feet aloft!

My Backyard stats from the recent Arctic Blast. 2.2" of snow, 9.8° low, and 7 days stayed below freezing.




Winter was 1 week this year! lolol

No snow events next 10 days! Tick Tock... 4 weeks left.

[Cambium]

Next 1-2 weeks doesnt look promising for snow or arctic air. Tick Tock

1980s pattern, don't bet against it

[simonusa3]

Does look like NWS just put in a WWA for inland western areas:

The seem to be saying light precip with this weak frontal system passing through today...maybe mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow...for western Connecticut /H valley. Highs today will be in the 30s F across most of the area, so could be some slight ice in western areas.

[simonusa3]

Also noted some of the models increased forecast highs for Friday (by 2 to 4 F) across Connecticut. So will be interesting to see how close (or how far off - lol) they are by Friday?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Thanks! Impressive warmth from 2500-5000 feet aloft!

My Backyard stats from the recent Arctic Blast. 2.2" of snow, 9.8° low, and 7 days stayed below freezing.




Winter was 1 week this year! lolol

No snow events next 10 days! Tick Tock... 4 weeks left.

And even more so, looks like those 7 days all stayed in the 20s and below.

I'm not completely convinced yet that all of February will be a torch though....

Originally Posted by simonusa3

Does look like NWS just put in a WWA for inland western areas:

The seem to be saying light precip with this weak frontal system passing through today...maybe mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow...for western Connecticut /H valley. Highs today will be in the 30s F across most of the area, so could be some slight ice in western areas.

I'm surprised it's not extended to the Sound shore and southern Westchester as the forecasts have freezing rain/sleet/snow mix overnight into the morning. In fact, this morning NWS even had that for NYC itself too, but now just rain there and no mix until north of the Bronx line.

Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight

Not like we haven't seen this recently right? I feel like at least once every January the last few years we've touched 60s no?

Contrary to popular belief, almost all Januaries even (using Hartford or NYC since Bridgeport didn't record weather until 1948) 100+ years ago usually had at least one high in the 50s and sometimes even in the 60s. As Mark Twain famously put it, weather here is very changeable, especially in the colder months

What's different now is we tend to get more highs in the 50s and 60s in winter than the past, but still not the day by day norm. And especially in winter, we break daily record highs more often than we do record daily lows. But (another "contrary to popular belief"), most of the warming has been in the nighttime lows, for example last year was (by almost an entire degree!) the warmest year ever in Central Park, NYC, but the highest temperature all year was only 93 (which is the third lowest "highest temperature of the year" in 150+ years of record, but there's a lot of ties in that "third" ranking). Or as another example of last year, in spite of all the obviously warming at night, NYC went all of August without a 90+ degree high for the first time since 1986! In fact the warmest high last August was 88, which is the first time since 1963 that even 89 wasn't hit in August.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

What's different now is we tend to get more highs in the 50s and 60s in winter than the past,

Here's Bridgeport 50°+ days in winter. 2015 was INSANE. I dont know why I think the 1980s was warm, maybe more 40s that decade which is warm anyway.

Anyway .. I circled the winters we had 15+ days with 50F+ temps. Definitely more in the past 30yrs



Lets go back before 1950... Using NYC since Hartford changed locations... Trend definitely UP but imagine living from 1930 to 1954 saying the same thing we are now? "Can't believe how many 50s were's getting in winter".



I guess the wars helped cool us off, we need a super volcano to blow now

[brownedbits]

Winter weather advisories now up for Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford, Tolland and Windham
Counties. In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern
Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Lets go back before 1950... Using NYC since Hartford changed locations... Trend definitely UP but imagine living from 1930 to 1954 saying the same thing we are now? "Can't believe how many 50s were's getting in winter".

I guess the wars helped cool us off, we need a super volcano to blow now

If you do summers and go by 90+ and more so 100+ highs, I think you'll see the 1930s through 1950s actually had MORE of those than now, thanks for the chart.

Average high temps have gone up too compared to even then, but unlike the lows, not by an amount that's automatically statisically significant. Actually an interesting and big mystery about Central Park is from the 1800s through about 1910 or so there were a lot of days with very high for the season low temps similar to today, but what was different is there were also a lot of record low temps at a level we haven't seen since (likely partially due to the greater Urban Heat Island since then). For example, in the summer of 1908 there were two days with a low of 84 (highest ever low in NYC history), but it didn't happen again until 1995 (I believe it's happened two more times since, most recently in 2011). And the only October days with lows in the mid-upper 70s occurred in the 1890s. But it's countered with a lot more subzero lows, subfreezing lows in April and October, single digit lows in March (which last happened in NYC in 1967! We did come close on Feb 28, 2014 though and March 1, 1980 missed doing it by 1 degree), etc. back then. The 1800s and early 1900s actually had more extreme swings than now.