[BPt111]

Originally Posted by SteveM85

It may not be as severe. There is no Countrywide ninja loan scandal so it will take another Black Swan to do that.

Keyword for millennials is those that “have” houses. For those that don’t, unless you sold big lately or mom and dad still around, see ya later, nice knowin’ ya.

GenZers I know now are doing one of two things. Shacking up in Norwalk and Stamford with roommates or hitting the road. A son of these people I know just last week left with the girlfriend for Charleston, bought a townhouse, work remote, though I’m not sure it’s that much cheaper there. These people still want some glitz and glamour and MS and AL don’t have that. The daughter wants to leave too but stuck in a job at Spectrum, they’re in the office 5 days. Some corps are still stuck in 2019.

Charleston, SC getting expensive I would say 2018-2020 Norwalk and Stamford prices lowest rent at $1300 but I agree with pervious poster most people in their 20s and 30s are price out of CT in term of buying their first home. A lot of CT young people are with roommates or still living with parents.

[BHW2436]

Right now it mostly comes down to who has family money and who doesn’t.

Even when you do see a property you can get, if it’s attractive and priced okay it still gets multiple offers above asking and the winner is the person with a bigger down payment and no/fewer contingencies which is usually not first time buyer.

What’s odd though is is not like the population is booming and all of a sudden there are not enough houses. The difference is people who buy as rental properties or second homes has increased a lot. In addition, 30% of all sales now are to institutional buyers who again, rent out. This wasn’t so high pre-covid.

My parents would like to move in retirement but right now they have no mortgage and a modest house (worth $450K). Math wise it makes sense to just stay.

[mdovell]

I'm starting to see more prices drop but we aren't talking *huge* drops. I don't think 5-10% is that big of a deal especially if it's still 50% more than what it was five years ago.

[notghinsaw]

This listing is hilarious: https://www.redfin.com/CT/Hamden/52-...operty-history

[BPt111]

Originally Posted by notghinsaw

This listing is hilarious: https://www.redfin.com/CT/Hamden/52-...operty-history

You can get nicer house in Milford, Branford, Wallingford, Orange, Shelton more deisreable town for same price.

[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by notghinsaw

This listing is hilarious: https://www.redfin.com/CT/Hamden/52-...operty-history

This is sustainable

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by SteveM85

It may not be as severe. There is no Countrywide ninja loan scandal so it will take another Black Swan to do that.

Keyword for millennials is those that “have” houses. For those that don’t, unless you sold big lately or mom and dad still around, see ya later, nice knowin’ ya.

GenZers I know now are doing one of two things. Shacking up in Stamford with roommates or hitting the road. A son of these people I know just last week left with the girlfriend for Charleston, bought a townhouse, work remote, though I’m not sure it’s that much cheaper there. These people still want some glitz and glamour and MS and AL don’t have that. The daughter wants to leave too but stuck in a job at Spectrum, they’re in the office 5 days. Some corps are still stuck in 2019.

This downturn wont be resi Steve - it will be CRE. What demographic breakout is going to save office, retail or even overbuilt industrial? Provided household formation remains consistent, SFH is going to be just fine but CRE is a different story especially with rates higher for longer. That also takes out a myriad of community/regional banks and even credit unions.

By the way - one interesting observation is that that larger homes have more pricing inelasticity. I’m guessing inflation has made it more expensive $PSF. Newer builds are topping out at 4200-4500 sq feet so updated 6k+ homes are fetching a premium. Totally the opposite of 08.

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

This downturn wont be resi Steve - it will be CRE. What demographic breakout is going to save office, retail or even overbuilt industrial? Provided household formation remains consistent, SFH is going to be just fine but CRE is a different story especially with rates higher for longer. That also takes out a myriad of community/regional banks and even credit unions.

By the way - one interesting observation is that that larger homes have more pricing inelasticity. I’m guessing inflation has made it more expensive $PSF. Newer builds are topping out at 4200-4500 sq feet so updated 6k+ homes are fetching a premium. Totally the opposite of 08.

CRE? For a minute I thought you were talking about bacterial infections.
CRE may very well be the first chip to fall, we can only speculate based on the data, but to date vehicle presence isn’t bearing that out yet. We still have a ton of commuting and shopping traffic out there. However, new office devs are over, that ship is sunk never mind sailed.
Resi and SFH might be fine, sure, maybe we just set a new higher bar. Only time will tell. Until then GenZ can kiss their forever Nutmeg home dreams goodbye.

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by notghinsaw

This listing is hilarious: https://www.redfin.com/CT/Hamden/52-...operty-history

550 is pretty cheap

[okbymeman]

Originally Posted by SteveM85

550 is pretty cheap

Not for a 2 bed 1 bath in freaking Hamden.