[mikelizard860]

Warmest march ever? If this continues.....Maybe
Insane forecast, especially considering we smashed records this week already.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by mikelizard860

Warmest march ever? If this continues.....Maybe
Insane forecast, especially considering we smashed records this week already.

Might be tough because of one distant precedent.

Most of the lower Northeast actually had two back-to-back Marchs in the mid 1940s that were a few degrees warmer than any other March (for example in Central Park both of those years averaged around or a little over 50-deg, but no other March was more than 48 or so), real freak months compared to the record. But I think we currently are close to their numbers so who knows.

I think in one of those March's in the 1940s Newark and Hartford actually got to 89 once and Providence went over 90.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Might be tough because of one distant precedent.

Most of the lower Northeast actually had two back-to-back Marchs in the mid 1940s that were a few degrees warmer than any other March (for example in Central Park both of those years averaged around or a little over 50-deg, but no other March was more than 48 or so), real freak months compared to the record. But I think we currently are close to their numbers so who knows.

I think in one of those March's in the 1940s Newark and Hartford actually got to 89 once and Providence went over 90.

I don’t doubt it. The NWS/NOAA data record is pitifully short in the scale of geologic/climatic time. It is quite exciting to see records I’m sure, but if we had 1,000 or 15,000 years of data I'd bet that we would see it has hit into the 90’s in the Tri-State area in mid/late March before. An old college professor used to say that there is no such thing as an unprecedented event in nature.

Even in the last 200 – 300 years there has been modestly large swings in the annual climate just on the East Coast; In the early mid/late 1700's temps where known to have been mild for the colonists along in the Virginia tidewater. Then the early/mid 800’s winters were known to be severe (cold and snow) as far south as the coastal plain of North Carolina. The Little Ice Age gave areas of southeast Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England severe winters, summer crop failures…etc. Then in the late 1800’s a huge moderation started and winters go milder all the way up the East Coast to Boston. By the late 1890’s they were growing oranges and suger cane as far north as southern Georgia and the low country of South Carolina. Then came the big freeze/severe winter of 1899 and citrus production was pushed all the way south back to central Florida. We had the warm years from 1940 – 1960, the cold years from 1966 to 1980, and the ups and downs continue to this day.

Who knows what the future will bring?

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I don’t doubt it. The NWS/NOAA data record is pitifully short in the scale of geologic/climatic time. It is quite exciting to see records I’m sure, but if we had 1,000 or 15,000 years of data I'd bet that we would see it has hit into the 90’s in the Tri-State area in mid/late March before. An old college professor used to say that there is no such thing as an unprecedented event in nature.

Maybe! Yes it's very true we have a small window of weather data. BUT! Remember There used to be glacial ice in CT. The planet has been warming ever since the last ice age. Ice in the arctic sea is retreating rapidly. The trend is warmer. Before the last ice age is a different story. There used to be rainforests near the poles when the dinosours ruled the earth. lol So this record heat we will see in the future decades is probably nearly unprecedented since before the last ice age

[papafox]

Originally Posted by mikelizard860

Maybe! Yes it's very true we have a small window of weather data. BUT! Remember There used to be glacial ice in CT. The planet has been warming ever since the last ice age. Ice in the arctic sea is retreating rapidly. The trend is warmer. Before the last ice age is a different story. There used to be rainforests near the poles when the dinosours ruled the earth. lol So this record heat we will see in the future decades is probably nearly unprecedented since before the last ice age

Don't want to get too far OT, but....

Are you talking about ice ages (we've been in one for somewhere between 1-2 million yrs) or are you talking about glacial/interglacial periods (which we've had 7 or so cycles) since the last ice age? Technically speaking, the last ice age didn't end 12000 yrs ago, but it was the last glacial period that ended then even though layman often call that the last ice age.

Just want to make sure.....

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I don’t doubt it. The NWS/NOAA data record is pitifully short in the scale of geologic/climatic time. It is quite exciting to see records I’m sure, but if we had 1,000 or 15,000 years of data I'd bet that we would see it has hit into the 90’s in the Tri-State area in mid/late March before. An old college professor used to say that there is no such thing as an unprecedented event in nature.

Even in the last 200 – 300 years there has been modestly large swings in the annual climate just on the East Coast; In the early mid/late 1700's temps where known to have been mild for the colonists along in the Virginia tidewater. Then the early/mid 800’s winters were known to be severe (cold and snow) as far south as the coastal plain of North Carolina. The Little Ice Age gave areas of southeast Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England severe winters, summer crop failures…etc. Then in the late 1800’s a huge moderation started and winters go milder all the way up the East Coast to Boston. By the late 1890’s they were growing oranges and suger cane as far north as southern Georgia and the low country of South Carolina. Then came the big freeze/severe winter of 1899 and citrus production was pushed all the way south back to central Florida. We had the warm years from 1940 – 1960, the cold years from 1966 to 1980, and the ups and downs continue to this day.

Who knows what the future will bring?

The one NWS website that seems to show some data from before the late 1800s is the Albany, NY one (not year by year, but in the "records" section, has even some 1700s data). And you clearly see both some much colder years than we've had in our lifetime and surprisingly some warmer than we've seen.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

The GFS is backing off on the cooling trend two weeks out that was hinted at yesterday. However, I would watch the PNA index as it is forecasted to go positive. This should begin to build the ridge in the western US and would "in theory" lead to a greater chance at a downstream trough in the eastern US.

and the 6z GFS showing a huge trough in East bringing 30s as far south as Virginia. Not sure if previous runs showed it (havent been following much). Its also showing snowfall for interior areas end of March. Still in Fantasy range and we all know how that goes.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The one NWS website that seems to show some data from before the late 1800s is the Albany, NY one (not year by year, but in the "records" section, has even some 1700s data). And you clearly see both some much colder years than we've had in our lifetime and surprisingly some warmer than we've seen.

From what I remember (and this was many years ago I read this)…the longest weather observations in the United States comes from two locations; Charleston, SC and shockingly on the Yale Campus in New Haven. Yale as you know is older than the United States and Charleston was an old subtropical port city that was on the spice routes from the Caribbean and West Africa since the late 1600’s. From what I remember – sometime in the 1970’s both locations stopped recordkeeping daily weather obs for various reasons. I would love to get a look at that data set – lol.

I remember reading that the 1930’s and 1950’s still have some of the records for heat up and down the East Coast. Interestingly, the most amount of tropical cyclone activity occurred from 1938 to 1961 on the East Coast.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

From what I remember (and this was many years ago I read this)…the longest weather observations in the United States comes from two locations; Charleston, SC and shockingly on the Yale Campus in New Haven. Yale as you know is older than the United States and Charleston was an old subtropical port city that was on the spice routes from the Caribbean and West Africa since the late 1600’s. From what I remember – sometime in the 1970’s both locations stopped recordkeeping daily weather obs for various reasons. I would love to get a look at that data set – lol.

I remember reading that the 1930’s and 1950’s still have some of the records for heat up and down the East Coast. Interestingly, the most amount of tropical cyclone activity occurred from 1938 to 1961 on the East Coast.

And its going to be a very active severe thunderstorm and tornado pattern well north this year.. I expect we'll be seeing reports of damaging tornadoes in New England this spring unfortunately.

Also the southeast is starting to show signs of drought again. The lack of snowpack around the country is definitely going to have a two-fold impact. Flooding concerns are almost non-existent this year which is good but if the pattern does not change drought concerns will jump out quickly.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by papafox

Don't want to get too far OT, but....

Are you talking about ice ages (we've been in one for somewhere between 1-2 million yrs) or are you talking about glacial/interglacial periods (which we've had 7 or so cycles) since the last ice age? Technically speaking, the last ice age didn't end 12000 yrs ago, but it was the last glacial period that ended then even though layman often call that the last ice age.

Just want to make sure.....

I don't know. lol All I know is glacial ice used to exist into the lower 48. It's retreated and been getting warmer ever since.