[Cambium]

First Wave comes through tonight. Warm Front moves north past us.Temps steady in 40s all day which will be above normal.

Here's the track of the first of the 4 systems to affect us.



Here's the rain amounts. They are still mentioning mix sleet for interior tonight. Please post here if you see any.

[Cambium]

From your favorite hypmaster former Accuweather Joe Bastardi. lol

"The End is Near".. "January Blowtorch to East"

Watch where he draws his circle...I think the Ridge/Heat stays south of NYC if this were to verify. But make a mental note..Stratosphere is warming and models aren't handling it well. He even says this. What he's showing you and going by, are the models.

Just like the models didnt see us hitting teens and 20s past few days. Just take everything you hear about the "future" with a grain of salt. Same goes for any fridig temps it shows.

It's always good to show it and talk about it, but nothing is 100% with future weather.

Dec 19 Raging WeatherBull - YouTube (http://youtu.be/EfbKbZKUVPI - broken link)

[mels]

Ha! Accuweather is dead to me. They tend to be mostly wrong and a great hype machine when it comes to severe weather. This morning was a full 30 degrees warmer at my house than yesterday (11 degrees vs 40 today) so that was nice!

[wavehunter007]

As we approach the final 10 days of the first month of meteorological winter…we really can’t complain on the East Coast. While the West Coast has been cold/wet, there has been snow/storms in the high deserts (even today), we have been basking in mild temps and sunshine on the eastern seaboard: So far this month most of the local NWS stations had highs in the 40’s and 50’s. NWS Central Park and Bridgeport had only one day that the high was not in the 40’s or 50’s so far this month...and 9 days (so far, add another one at least on Wed) reached into the 50's. Much of Florida had daily highs that were close to 80 F every day this month.

As far as the possible storm this weekend, I think there is little chance for anything frozen locally (Ct/NYC/NJ). Highs will reach 45 F today, and 55 F on Weds day as rain rolls through. The southeast ridge looks as strong as ever in the coming days, this should deflect the weekend low/storm to the eastern Great Lakes and keep us on the warm side of things like tomorrow. I know there is still some question, but that's my guess as to how it will most likely play out.

The very latest XMASS forecast shows fairly mild temps for XMASS day for the East Coast - 40’s and 50”s north)….and 60’s and 70’s south. Even by next Wednesday, temps look fairly mild with highs from 40 to 75 F north to south. At this point - it really looks like December 2011 will go down as a warm and sunny first month of meteorological winter:






.

[Cambium]

While December could go down being above average "overall" there were days we went below normal while some so called meterologist said there wouldnt be anything close to below normal.

Circled are the days we were below. Rest were normal or above.

Out of 19 Days, 8 were below normal for the lows.(42% of days so far)
3 Were below normal with the day high temp. A far cry from last year when we were below more than half the time.

[wavehunter007]

I think there is “little doubt” that December 2011 will go down as warmer than average...

Also, in climate science temps are averaged over 24 hrs to compute the mean daily temp (not just the high or low - lol). Based on the daily mean temp – just 2 days (December 11th and December 18th) out of 20 days had a daily mean temp below normal. Highlighted are the days when the mean temp was below normal.

Put another way...so far this month 90% of the time the mean temp was above normal:





I would guess that highs on Wed in the middle 50’s and lows in the 40’s would only add to the monthly mean temp number this month. If this keeps up, NWS Bridgeport/NYC/Atlantic City...etc might end December 2011 with only a few days that were below normal.



.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think there is “little doubt” that December 2011 will go down as warmer than average...

Also, in climate science temps are averaged over 24 hrs to compute the mean daily temp (not just the high or low - lol). Based on the daily mean temp – just 2 days (December 11th and December 18th) out of 20 days had a daily mean temp below normal. Highlighted are the days when the mean temp was below normal.

Put another way...so far this month 90% of the time the mean temp was above normal:





I would guess that highs on Wed in the middle 50’s and lows in the 40’s would only add to the monthly mean temp number this month. If this keeps up, NWS Bridgeport/NYC/Atlantic City...etc might end December 2011 with only a few days that were below normal.



.

Definitely a very warm December this time around..thats great to see after the battering you guys took all year. The whole East has been warm. Charlotte is 4 degrees above average. Nice weather..a pleasure. But now its time for winter to begin.

[Cambium]

Christmas Storm Update:

From the 2 most reliable models 1 of them doesnt even have a drop for the weekend. But the other keeps the coastal storm.(Euro)

1 Clear skies
2 is OTS.
3 Interior Snows

Absolutely insanity they cant agree on anything 4 days before. Whats the point in spending all that money feeding data into these models?

Last year was a different ballgame...there was continuity in some way.

Stay tuned.

This was the latest Euro out 10 minutes ago. Blues would be the higher totals.

[ctwhitechin]

I'll take this winter so far, after the pummeling we got from end of December through January last winter, and that freak snowstorm end of October this year, I'd say we earned a decent December. Hey, it is still winter like, no leaves on trees, yesterday morning and Sunday were cold, but I can deal without the white stuff for a while, especially as most of probably do, have to travel a little this weekend.

A dusting Christmas morning on the lawns will make it look beautiful, and still safe to travel 7-8 inches of snow will make a mess.

[Cambium]

Heads up if you're going to be on the roads late tonight especially north of 84. I'm seeing forecasts of sleet before changing to rain.

Friday looks to have a little snow for some of us too.

Weekend still up in the air.