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60-70% for herd immunity is pretty much a known. Do you have any link to something saying some people are naturally immune to the novel Covid19? I have seen nothing like that in any science article.
Could be as low as 43%, see my post #1471 in this thread...
The low rates will give people especially politicians a false sense of security. The 2nd wave will hit so hard that people who recovered may even die from it if they let their guard down.
This article about the 1918 flu pandemic-- from Nov 2017 in the Smithsonian magazine is worth a read.
Your house is not sterile. You are still exposed to "normal pathogens" even if you stay indoors 24/7. You do not have to be exposed to germs that make you sick in order for your immune system to be healthy.
Your doctor can check vitamin D blood levels. If you are deficient you need a supplement, or you can just supplement without being tested. It is hard for anyone to make enough vitamin D just from sun exposure.
Why wouldn't you be outside sitting in the sun or fresh air, by your house or apartment or condo, or elsewhere?
I sit outside on my porch 99% of the days - people can sit outside on a porch, a deck, a balcony, in a yard.
For those without a porch, deck, balcony, or yard, a bench briefly by a park or nearby will help, where briefly allowed, as will a walk, if possible.
Even those who are ambulatory and who can walk or who can be pushed in a wheelchair who live in a senior facility or nursing home, can often sit outside on a patio or deck. Or can sit in a sunny windowed atrium inside the facility.
(sorry, cannot now find the post you were responding to - which is who, I think, my post was speaking to)
Last edited by matisse12; 05-14-2020 at 03:07 PM..
Could be as low as 43%, see my post #1471 in this thread...
From that one little paragraph:
Important: e-prints posted on arXiv are not peer-reviewed by arXiv; they should not be relied upon without context to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information without consulting multiple experts in the field.
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Hmmm. So open everything back up and let everyone get infected? No easy answers to this thing.
No, I think that at some point we will have to accept the South Korean model of extensive testing and contact tracking, if you do that well you end up with no covid cases in the population, or maybe that's too much for some folks and we will end up digging lots of graves.
No, I think that at some point we will have to accept the South Korean model of extensive testing and contact tracking, if you do that well you end up with no covid cases in the population, or maybe that's too much for some folks and we will end up digging lots of graves.
I just don't know if we will EVER get testing up to speed. We've done a suck-ass job of it so far.
I know and it's tragic, at this point I'm not even sure if the tests they are using are accurate.
The Abbott quick test may is showing around a 30% false negative rate on initial 3rd party validation.
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No, I think that at some point we will have to accept the South Korean model of extensive testing and contact tracking, if you do that well you end up with no covid cases in the population, or maybe that's too much for some folks and we will end up digging lots of graves.
Some unfounded assumptions peddled in that story. The two big holes in this story:
1) Nobody knows the % of infected people to reach herd immunity, but they claim 65% need to be infected. There are people naturally immune, and they don't need to be infected to count as non contagious. There are multiple ways people are immune, but ignoring they exist is bad science. Its looking like they could represent 20 to 30% of the population. Many many cases are being looked at to nail that % down and find the reasons why.
2) They say that the people who turned up positive in the anti body tests represent the number of people infected by it. Well no, that's not true because there is no known figure on the people who don't produce antibodies who were infected. If we measure that 5% of the population has antibodies to the virus, we do not know if 5% (or 10% or 40%) have been infected, because we do not know how many who get antibodies after a very mild or symptom-free infection. Studies are just starting on this. When T cells only fight off a virus, there is no reason antibodies would be produced.
I'm not saying its wrong, but its guesses being presented as established facts.
1. There may be some people who are genetically resistant to infection with SARS-CoV-2, just as there are for HIV and norovirus. Some researcher is probably working on that now, but it is not likely to be 20 to 30% of the population. Resistance is not the same as immunity. To become immune you have to be infected or vaccinated.
The number needed to be immune depends on the R0, so it is possible to estimate the threshold needed for herd immunity. This article takes into consideration variations in susceptibility:
2. People with SARS-CoV-2 do make neutralizing antibodies. That is why convalescent plasma from recovered patients is being used to treat sick patients. It will be a while before enough people are tested to be able to estimate how many have been infected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by matisse12
Why wouldn't you be outside sitting in the sun or fresh air, by your house or apartment or condo, or elsewhere?
I sit outside on my porch 99% of the days - people can sit outside on a porch, a deck, a balcony, in a yard.
For those without a porch, deck, balcony, or yard, a bench briefly by a park or nearby will help, where briefly allowed, as will a walk, if possible.
Even those who are ambulatory and who can walk or who can be pushed in a wheelchair who live in a senior facility or nursing home, can often sit outside on a patio or deck. Or can sit in a sunny windowed atrium inside the facility.
(sorry, cannot now find the post you were responding to - which is who, I think, my post was speaking to)
The poster I responded to is basically claiming that you have to get sick in order to "exercise" your immune system and that staying indoors impairs immunity. That is not true. There is plenty in the normal household environment to keep your immune system busy.
There are geographical locations where even if you sat nude in the sun for hours you might not make enough vitamin D, especially during days with fewer sunlight hours and a lower angle of the sun's rays. D is easy to test for, so anyone who is concerned can get tested.
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