Is this really a good time to buy in DFW area? Or are we just hitting "typical" buying season? (homeowners insurance, mortgage)

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by MckinneyOwnr

No, I am not.

Rakin spelled it out for you why homes prices are increasing, and specifically mentioned the cost of building materials increasing. You responded with a quizzical "Inflation?" like it was not occurring.

You took the thread off tangent by bringing up overall inflation, which is not what Rakin was alluding to in his post.

And for the record, the relationship between new home prices rising due to input costs rising and existing homes is quite strong. How do you think comps are used when buying/selling houses? They will compare sq footage from new and existing homes, making existing home pricing also increase.

Sorry we simply disagree about all of this at least in general terms.

If a home next to me is torn down and rebuilt now. I cannot account for much (any?) of the materials inflation payed for in that house when I sell mine. Further, I think you need to explore how comps and appraisals actually work in practice. A prospective buyer is going to laugh if I try to specifically comp. my 1967 home with a 2013 home.

[Keepingitsimple]

Originally Posted by pinipig523

Are we just hitting typical "buying season" or is this really a good time to buy?

Reason why I ask is because in Estes Park in Southlake - prices are up from 2010-2012 and I don't want to overpay...

Thoughts? You think I'll look back in a year and kick myself?

You are already late my friend but if you do want to buy then buy after summer rush as sellers will be more flexible.

[MckinneyOwnr]

If you want to make a ridiculous comparison like that, sure. But there's little to no difference between a home built in 2008 or 2009 to one built in 2012/2013, especially after a few years. My neighborhood has homes built from 2004 to 2007. A brand new development is going up right next to us, which have smaller lots and smaller floor plans, and priced very high in terms of $/sq ft compared to what I paid for my home just a few years ago.

Already, some of the homes that are for sale in my neighborhood have raised their asking prices, or putting their home on the market at a higher level than they were before this new development started. The best part is, they are moving these homes at these higher prices, and I'm positive the comps from this new development have a lot to do with it.

But I'm no realtor. Perhaps Rakin or someone else will chime in to say whether an increase in building material cost will also play a part in existing home prices increasing. I'm confident that they do.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by MckinneyOwnr

If you want to make a ridiculous comparison like that, sure. But there's little to no difference between a home built in 2008 or 2009 to one built in 2012/2013, especially after a few years. My neighborhood has homes built from 2004 to 2007. A brand new development is going up right next to us, which have smaller lots and smaller floor plans, and priced very high in terms of $/sq ft compared to what I paid for my home just a few years ago.

Already, some of the homes that are for sale in my neighborhood have raised their asking prices, or putting their home on the market at a higher level than they were before this new development started. The best part is, they are moving these homes at these higher prices, and I'm positive the comps from this new development have a lot to do with it.

But I'm no realtor. Perhaps Rakin or someone else will chime in to say whether an increase in building material cost will also play a part in existing home prices increasing. I'm confident that they do.

My point about comps may be ridiculous to you. That does not change the fact that my home was built in 1967 and I am surrounded, although not entirely, by tear downs. Three are in progress now.

[Rakin]

Really it boils down to ...

It was a better time in 2011 or 2012 to buy but nows a better time than in 2014 to buy. We might see some natural slowing in the winter. The winter of 2012 broke records here so this winter may do the same. Our December of 2012 was unbelievably busy.

Any Interest rate below about 6% is artificially held down by our Govt.
I'm not sure how long they can continue to keep interest rates where they are but not sure they can afford to pay more in interest.

Interest rates should slowly creep up at least until Obama leave office then we may see much higher rates.

[pinipig523]

Originally Posted by Keepingitsimple

You are already late my friend but if you do want to buy then buy after summer rush as sellers will be more flexible.

Yeah - I think I missed the bottom in 2010-2011.... but there was no way I was in a position to buy at that time so I can't cry over spilled milk.

I just don't want to buy now and come out at a loss in 5 years.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by MckinneyOwnr

Perhaps Rakin or someone else will chime in to say whether an increase in building material cost will also play a part in existing home prices increasing. I'm confident that they do.

Spot on... Builder pricing determines the price of existing homes. As they go up (or down) they pull up the values of existing homes.

Builders prices went down about 15-20% back in 2009/10 and that was one of the big killers of existing home values at that time.

[pinipig523]

So we don't see a downturn anytime soon? No indicators pointing towards a down?

I know nobody has a crystal ball, but just past performance as an indicator of future performance...

I can't recall, what were the indicators of the months leading up to the implosion of the real estate bubble of 2008?

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by pinipig523

So we don't see a downturn anytime soon? No indicators pointing towards a down?

There are a massive amount of people and businesses moving to TX. Growth creates growth and that will not change for the next few years.

The only thing I see is higher interest rates slowing the market and that is going to be a few years.
Anyone who remembers the 1980's when interest rates went to 14-17% will recall increasing interest rates created huge demand of people buying house trying to beat the increase in rates.

Anticipation of Higher interest rates can cause another surge in demand and prices to go even higher.

The 1980's proved that until rates hit 14-17% which then killed the housing market and brought inflation under control.

We are seeing the same thing today that DFW saw when the population went from about 2 million to 4 million back in the late 70's & 80's.

[GripeWater]

Gurus say that down turn will start in 2017. Who knows? If you ask me, homeownership is highly overrated. However, if you want one then just but one. You are going so slow that prop ably your kids will be in college by the time you'll find the ideal timing to buy the ideal house on ideal lot in ideal neighborhood of an ideal town with ideal schools at an ideal price.