Is this really a good time to buy in DFW area? Or are we just hitting "typical" buying season? (Bedford: mortgages, refinance)

[synchronicity]

Originally Posted by pinipig523

So we don't see a downturn anytime soon? No indicators pointing towards a down?

I know nobody has a crystal ball, but just past performance as an indicator of future performance...

I can't recall, what were the indicators of the months leading up to the implosion of the real estate bubble of 2008?

Well, for one thing the yield curve inverted starting around August 2006, which was a huge recession indicator within the next 12-18 months. That's not the case now.

Also, home prices, after zooming up for several years beforehand, started leveling off and declining after April/May 2006. See: S&P | February 2013 | Americas If you look at the data for the most recent months on the linked spreadsheet, you'll see that home prices have been moving UP fairly sharply in 2013.

Seriously, you're trying to get too cute. If you like the house and it seems to be priced fairly relative to comps, then buy it. Personally I think a house should be a HOME first and an INVESTMENT as a distant second. fortunately, many of the things that make a house a good home also make it a good investment, but really, you buy a house to live in and raise a family, not to get wealthy.

We bought in IL back in 2004, shortly before we had our kid. I was leery of the housing market over the mid term but we tried to manage the risk by purchasing within our comfort zone rather than reaching. At the time I planned for no home price appreciation over the next 5 years - in 2009 I laughed at being so OPtimistic. Fortunately, buying below our means meant we weren't trapped "underwater" when opportunity arose.

Are you buying a house hoping to sell in 5 years at a tidy profit, or do you want to make it a home? Seriously, negotiate well, try to get the best mortgage terms you can...a buy a house that works for you. Yes, it's possible that 3 years from now the market could drop again, but it's DFW, there has historically been limited volatility in housing prices. That means you won't make a killing on appreciation but likely won't lose much even in a downturn.

There's an old investment saying "Bulls get rich, bears get rich, pigs get slaughtered". Don't worry about trying to time everything in some mythical perfect manner. "Now" looks to be a better time to buy than "later". Maybe a month from now things will be marginally better for buyers and you can curse the 5K opportunity cost or whatever. Ten years from now, if you and your family are happy in your home, you won't care.

[MckinneyOwnr]

Originally Posted by EDS_

My point about comps may be ridiculous to you. That does not change the fact that my home was built in 1967 and I am surrounded, although not entirely, by tear downs. Three are in progress now.

What was ridiculous was that you're lecturing me on studying up on comps and appraisals and how they are used and then you think that a 2013 home is a comp for your 1967 home... No realtor in their right mind would make the comparison you made.

The teardowns are not comps for you. The selling price of the home before the teardown would be.

[MckinneyOwnr]

Originally Posted by Rakin

Spot on... Builder pricing determines the price of existing homes. As they go up (or down) they pull up the values of existing homes.

Builders prices went down about 15-20% back in 2009/10 and that was one of the big killers of existing home values at that time.

Glad to have that validated.

There was no doubt in my mind, especially when one only has to consider their homeowners insurance policy and how they figure it. I was required to get a coverage level of 300k... because that was the estimated cost to rebuild a house like mine. Obviously, if the costs to build a home go up, so would the value of existing homes.

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by pinipig523

So we don't see a downturn anytime soon? No indicators pointing towards a down?

I know nobody has a crystal ball, but just past performance as an indicator of future performance...

I can't recall, what were the indicators of the months leading up to the implosion of the real estate bubble of 2008?

Poo or get off the pot...seriously.

There are no guarantees in life. Given how slowly real estate here traditionally appreciates, you may just break even in 5 years in a good market. You may lose money. You may make a little. Nobody here has a crystal ball.

[stan4]

I would guess it's area dependent.
Houses are going up here and selling in two seconds.
The one in front of my mom's house went from "coming soon" to "sale pending" before anyone was aware it was showing!
When school gets out, the buyers start looking, too. Little more competition.
I think many expect interest rates to go up by next year, too.

[Johnhw2]

Originally Posted by Keepingitsimple

You are already late my friend but if you do want to buy then buy after summer rush as sellers will be more flexible.

You choices of existing homes after the rush are likely to decline as inventory levels will be lower after the rush if historical trends hold this year.

[Sushi cake]

To find a bargain you have to take that risk.

[Sushi cake]

Originally Posted by BigDGeek

Poo or get off the pot...seriously.

There are no guarantees in life. Given how slowly real estate here traditionally appreciates, you may just break even in 5 years in a good market. You may lose money. You may make a little. Nobody here has a crystal ball.

He did say that he knows about lack of crystal balls but would like posters to speculate according to past and present trends.

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by Sushi cake

He did say that he knows about lack of crystal balls but would like posters to speculate according to past and present trends.

You can speculate in one hand and poo in the other and see which one fills up first.

[Sushi cake]

Excuse me!