Inflated home prices (Dallas, Plano, McKinney: townhome, income, taxes)

[Lorne]

Originally Posted by crazyforger

Agree...and they aren't sticky buyers.
If there is oversupply, they will start dumping too as they can't hold an empty house and pay taxes for too long.

Interesting article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...?sref=Z0MLTRK0

[albert648]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

That's only for new time buyers, who are taking it on the chin everywhere. My inlaws house is $3k in taxes due to Prop 13 on a home worth around $800k, and yes this indicates they have lived there a long time to take advantage, but the average person in CA has lived in their home 11 years now, while Texas is like 7 years, which makes a pretty significant difference in terms of number of homes trading hands and taxes, even in Texas where appraisal prices typically lag sales prices.

New buyers are taking it on the chin in Dallas.

In California, they're being eaten alive. And assuming you somehow are even able to squeeze your way into the market, you can't up or downsize since your property taxes would go up too much. It's a vicious cycle.

[DallasComet]

Originally Posted by Lorne

Interesting article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...?sref=Z0MLTRK0

Definitely happening in the new developments south of I-30.

[Xalistiq]

With interest rates expected to climb to 4% or higher possibly by the middle of this year, and at the latest by the end of this year, combined with more inventory, my hope is prices will stabilize in 2022.

I am looking to buy in the $650k-$750k range, and am astonished by the lack of inventory and the small, outdated homes coming to market in the North/East Dallas neighborhoods I’m considering.

[Cicnod]

Originally Posted by albert648

New buyers are taking it on the chin in Dallas.

In California, they're being eaten alive. And assuming you somehow are even able to squeeze your way into the market, you can't up or downsize since your property taxes would go up too much. It's a vicious cycle.

Not to mention I know many people in CA that would love to move elsewhere in CA, in other words upgrade. Because their property taxes would increase far too much they stay in the same home, thus limiting supply even more. While I can appreciate the Prop 13 idea it has been a disaster long term.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by Xalistiq

With interest rates expected to climb to 4% or higher possibly by the middle of this year, and at the latest by the end of this year, combined with more inventory, my hope is prices will stabilize in 2022.

I am looking to buy in the $650k-$750k range, and am astonished by the lack of inventory and the small, outdated homes coming to market in the North/East Dallas neighborhoods I’m considering.

As of today, there is almost zero inventory on the market. Homes hit the market with 20+ offers in 48 hours.

An agent in our office Buyer just bid $830k on a $700k and did not get the house.

There may be more homes on the market soon but it probably will make little difference.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Rent is up 20% nationwide I believe.

Average in DFW is around 16% but high desire areas like Coppell and Flower Mound, rents are up 25-30%. 70,000 new renters in the last year have moved to DFW. Only 9% of apartments are offering any type of discount.

Texas was the #1 move to state in 2021.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by Rakin

Average in DFW is around 16% but high desire areas like Coppell and Flower Mound, rents are up 25-30%. 70,000 new renters in the last year have moved to DFW. Only 9% of apartments are offering any type of discount.

Texas was the #1 move to state in 2021.

Texas is #1 moved to state but you forget that its second largest state in the nation with huge real estate market. So as population gains, its just above 1% when places like Idaho are at 3%. Its a lot of people but I fail to see how it can be the only force that is overwhelming demand state-wide.

Meanwhile places that are bleeding population such as D.C, NY, CA and IL are still seeing real estate increases somehow. California is still out performing Texas in price increases.

My ultimate question is how is this all going to work out especially for lower earners in metro areas. As I see, and correct me if I'm wrong, its pretty hard to find a roof over your head for anything less than $1200 a month right now. On top of that, you MUST have a vehicle which is extremely expensive to insure and fuel these days let alone pay for. I am not even mentioning the issue of health insurance etc. Food prices alone have really gone up lately and so have the electricity and home gas bills.

Before we all scream that screw low earners and who cares - ultimately who is going to work at your Starbucks and Home Depots and basically run the necessities that we all use daily. Who is going to serve you food at Mi Cocina.

I mean realistically you are really going to struggle on anything less than $2500 Net monthly to provide even basic needs (forget about health insurance).

Places like NYC/SF/Chicago have very robust housing programs for low earners and there is really no need for a car at all. I think you still can rent a 1 bedroom in Chicago for $700 in Rogers Park and be minutes walk away from the train - thats even without gov assistance.

My concern is that we're going to enter very high COL very soon at this rate and it will become a run-away train. We're squeezing low earners and sooner or later we'll have to double or triple their pay to fill the places which will echo upwards very hard on the pyramid and cause even more issues.

As I hear even the state government is bleeding people as they are refusing to raise their salaries with average being 50K and that includes huge compulsory retirement contributions so your monthly NET is pretty damn low.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Texas is #1 moved to state but you forget that its second largest state in the nation with huge real estate market. So as population gains, its just above 1% when places like Idaho are at 3%. Its a lot of people but I fail to see how it can be the only force that is overwhelming demand state-wide.

Meanwhile places that are bleeding population such as D.C, NY, CA and IL are still seeing real estate increases somehow. California is still out performing Texas in price increases.

My ultimate question is how is this all going to work out especially for lower earners in metro areas. As I see, and correct me if I'm wrong, its pretty hard to find a roof over your head for anything less than $1200 a month right now. On top of that, you MUST have a vehicle which is extremely expensive to insure and fuel these days let alone pay for. I am not even mentioning the issue of health insurance etc. Food prices alone have really gone up lately and so have the electricity and home gas bills.

Before we all scream that screw low earners and who cares - ultimately who is going to work at your Starbucks and Home Depots and basically run the necessities that we all use daily. Who is going to serve you food at Mi Cocina.

I mean realistically you are really going to struggle on anything less than $2500 Net monthly to provide even basic needs (forget about health insurance).

Places like NYC/SF/Chicago have very robust housing programs for low earners and there is really no need for a car at all. I think you still can rent a 1 bedroom in Chicago for $700 in Rogers Park and be minutes walk away from the train - thats even without gov assistance.

My concern is that we're going to enter very high COL very soon at this rate and it will become a run-away train. We're squeezing low earners and sooner or later we'll have to double or triple their pay to fill the places which will echo upwards very hard on the pyramid and cause even more issues.

As I hear even the state government is bleeding people as they are refusing to raise their salaries with average being 50K and that includes huge compulsory retirement contributions so your monthly NET is pretty damn low.

And people think the lines and wait times at the driver's license offices are bad now! I shudder to think how much they make.

Anyway, not all parts of the metro area are going crazy in price. It's only certain cities, neighborhoods, and housing types. Most of McKinney is still incredibly cheap, and it's not going up that much. The east side actually went down in value from last year. It gets cheaper still as you move into the eastern fringes.

Originally Posted by Xalistiq

With interest rates expected to climb to 4% or higher possibly by the middle of this year, and at the latest by the end of this year, combined with more inventory, my hope is prices will stabilize in 2022.

I am looking to buy in the $650k-$750k range, and am astonished by the lack of inventory and the small, outdated homes coming to market in the North/East Dallas neighborhoods I’m considering.

All the other people are likely hoping the exact same thing. However, at that price range, you should not be priced out of anything reasonable unless you are limited to exceptionally high-cost neighborhoods or new McMansions. Regardless, I would not expect any return to normalcy until all the panicky pandemic people either all get a house or stop wanting to move to the area. People who have that kind of money are not going to care about interest rates.

[TheOverdog]

Before we all scream that screw low earners and who cares - ultimately who is going to work at your Starbucks and Home Depots and basically run the necessities that we all use daily. Who is going to serve you food at Mi Cocina.

This is already happening and will only get worse, in that most commute from out of town to places like Plano, HP, Southlake, etc to work retail, and building the 380 Loop is what the government is planning on doing about it, at least in Collin County. That's a pretty terrible solution, but no one else has any ideas.