What would Detroit be like ten years from now? (Warren: neighborhoods, schools)

[lucky2balive]

Originally Posted by ThePage

To lift up Detroit, water should be free. Also heat bill and gas prices should be reduced by 50% and there shouldn't be any more increase on those prices.
Get the fat tax- greedy- government out of people's back.

nothing is free...someone pays for it
please go take a 5th grade economics class...quickly

[memph]

I made a couple maps of Detroit showing where the share of visible minorities increased by 20 percentage points or more, ex from 40% VM to 60%+ VM.

It's colour coded by the VM whose share of the population increased the most.
Blue = Black
Orange = Hispanic
Red = Asians

So if 2000-2010 trends continue, this can help give an idea of where things are headed.


Not all of these involve a decrease in white population, although in most of these census tracts, it does.

White = increase in white population
Pink = up to 25% decrease in white population
Red = over 25% decrease in white population


There are many other areas where the white population decreased, this just shows the census tracts where the white share decreased by 20%. For example, if a census tract maintains a stable population of 5000, and goes from 1000 whites to 500 whites, that's a 50% decrease in whites, but it's only going from 20% to 10% white, so the share of whites only decreased by 10 percentage points (less than the required 20).

I've also mapped Houston the same way, if anyone's interested in comparing. There, the big changes in racial composition like the ones happening around 8 mile and Telegraph Road are happened 2-3 times further out, on the suburban periphery or close.
SW Ontario Urbanist: Rapid changes in racial/ethnic composition in Houston and Detroit

[jonnynonos]

Indian Village, The Eye, Warrendale, Delray.

Those "20 percent" drops were likely in the hundreds or single digit thousands at the most, if this is measuring 2000-2010.

[Zaba]

The question is what we as a society want to pay for collectively and grant access to everyone versus what we want to say "Sorry, you're on your own, tough ****."

Various municipal services, it makes perfect sense to fund those from the tax base.
Other countries have determined that things like healthcare should be a basic social service, whereas our system is some grotesque private industry shakedown racket that bankrupts people.

The problem with the United States is that we would rather let 10 people starve to prevent 1 lazy bum from getting a free ride, whereas other countries have different values, where they would accept the lazy bum to prevent the 10 people from starving.

Detroit has a tax base problem. Too many takers, not enough makers.
Its really that simple. The racial component can be ignored, since there are places in the south full of white people on SSDI that suffer from the same problem.

[Retroit]

SW Ontario Urbanist: Rapid changes in racial/ethnic composition in Houston and Detroit

Good work!

[memph]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

Indian Village, The Eye, Warrendale, Delray.

Those "20 percent" drops were likely in the hundreds or single digit thousands at the most, if this is measuring 2000-2010.

?

Thousands are 4 digits.

And because it's not possible for the white population to be less than zero the biggest decrease possible in the white population is 100%, which would mean zero whites left in 2010.

All of the neighbourhoods you mentioned still have some whites living in them.

The biggest changes in terms of percentage point increase in visible minority share were

Census Tract 5462 (just west of Rouge Park, S of Joy Rd)
2000: 79% white, 8% black
2000-2010: 64% decrease in white population, 653% increase in black population, 2.2% decrease in overall population
2010: 29% white, 63% black
That makes for a decrease in white share/increase in VM share of 50 percentage points.

2nd biggest change.

Census Tract 5516 (in Harper Woods, just north of city limits)
2000: 89% white, 5% black
2000-2010: 52% decrease in white population, 1018% increase in black population, 1.2% increase in overall population
2010: 42% white, 51% black
That makes for a decrease in white share/increase in VM share of 47 percentage points.


3rd biggest change

Census Tract 2588 (in Eastpointe, just north of 8 Mile)
2000: 78% white, 18% black
2000-2010: 55% decrease in white population, 256% increase in black population, 2.6% increase in overall population
2010: 34% white, 61% black
That makes for a decrease in white share/increase in VM share of 44 percentage points.

After that it was mostly changes of 20-35 percentage points.

There's many places in the outer suburbs where the total black population increased by 200%, 300%, 400% etc but if it's going from 50 blacks to 250 blacks in a census tract of 5000 people, that's just going from 1% black to 5% black so not very noticeable and only a 4 percentage point increase in black population share.

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by memph

?

Thousands are 4 digits.

And because it's not possible for the white population to be less than zero the biggest decrease possible in the white population is 100%, which would mean zero whites left in 2010.

All of the neighbourhoods you mentioned still have some whites living in them.

The biggest changes in terms of percentage point increase in visible minority share were

Census Tract 5462 (just west of Rouge Park, S of Joy Rd)
2000: 79% white, 8% black
2000-2010: 64% decrease in white population, 653% increase in black population, 2.2% decrease in overall population
2010: 29% white, 63% black
That makes for a decrease in white share/increase in VM share of 50 percentage points.

2nd biggest change.

Census Tract 5516 (in Harper Woods, just north of city limits)
2000: 89% white, 5% black
2000-2010: 52% decrease in white population, 1018% increase in black population, 1.2% increase in overall population
2010: 42% white, 51% black
That makes for a decrease in white share/increase in VM share of 47 percentage points.


3rd biggest change

Census Tract 2588 (in Eastpointe, just north of 8 Mile)
2000: 78% white, 18% black
2000-2010: 55% decrease in white population, 256% increase in black population, 2.6% increase in overall population
2010: 34% white, 61% black
That makes for a decrease in white share/increase in VM share of 44 percentage points.

After that it was mostly changes of 20-35 percentage points.

There's many places in the outer suburbs where the total black population increased by 200%, 300%, 400% etc but if it's going from 50 blacks to 250 blacks in a census tract of 5000 people, that's just going from 1% black to 5% black so not very noticeable and only a 4 percentage point increase in black population share.

Ha...my point was that in real numbers I would guess the change was loss in Caucasusns in each neighborhood of hundreds or at the most single-digit thousands.

All of the data is available in Semcog, but there weren't many whites left in those neighborhoods to begin with.

[Retroit]

This map The Racial Dot Map: One Dot Per Person for the Entire U.S. is also pretty neat. It shows the pockets of blacks (green dots) in the suburbs. Usually apartment complexes.

[WayneCounty]

^^I'm actually surprised how Asian Hamtramck is.

[memph]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

Ha...my point was that in real numbers I would guess the change was loss in Caucasusns in each neighborhood of hundreds or at the most single-digit thousands.

All of the data is available in Semcog, but there weren't many whites left in those neighborhoods to begin with.

oh ok... Well if you take all of the census tracts I've highlighted including the couple where the white population grew (but was outpaced by minority population growth ex fast growing parts of Canton).

Total
2000 whites: 162,691 (75.7%)
2000 total pop: 215,002

2010 whites: 110,589 (50.3%)
2010 total pop: 219,787

That's for 65 census tracts, so the average census tract went from

2000 whites: 2,502
2000 total pop: 3,308

2010 whites: 1,701
2010 total pop: 3,381

Average decrease in white population is 802 per census tract, so you're right about losses in the hundreds to max 1999, but that's not because there "weren't many whites left to begin with" (75.7%) but because census tracts are small.

The biggest decrease in white population was 1841, in census tract 5458 in Warrendale btw.