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I've seen this play out firsthand when doing job searches for public entities (community colleges). Pay a low salary, expect the most qualified applicants to pass on your job offer.
It is called job security. Unless you have a public employee on tape raping or murdering someone or using racial epithets/#metoo stuff they cannot be fired. It can be tougher to get employees into govt now but back in 2008-2009 people were one step away from murdering each other for a secure public sector job. Heck, in my profession just offer >$15-20 and hour and healthcare benefits and you will out-compete most private sector employers in the sciences.
Allow me to help you balance your city's budget by making one less person's burden on your publicly provided services. What's that? You'll also be losing my property taxes? OOPS!
Standard disclaimer: Each family, each individual will have their own set of numbers they need to crunch. Is it worth it for THEM, does the move benefit THEM, etc.
I work in a position, and in an industry where my salary wouldn't change THAT much moving out a city like NYC, Chicago, or SF. I'm at a number that would be considered "taken care of" in the Southeast, but would be more like a first job out of college on the west coast.
To change employers in my current field would almost certainly net me zero or less than zero. I am lucky enough to work for a large company with a budget for overtime and receive what is considered above-market pay. I have nowhere higher to go, unless I want to enter management.
To change careers, I'd not only forego overtime while attending school and doing school work, I'd be entering a new field at an entry-level salary. 20 hours of OT a week foregone are approximately $50k a year lost. Combine that with the salary drop for switching industries and you have an ROI so long I don't even want to think about it.
For skilled workers leaving these areas, I don't blame them. Employees with careers in even lukewarm demand stand to benefit a lot. Especially if the salary won't drop that much, they'll net serious gains from the sale of their old home, and most likely end up with a better balance sheet in a lower CoL area. In my industry, telecom, cost-of-living adjustments range from 8-10% from the lowest CoL areas (N1) to the highest (N4).
The number of GenXers in my age range, say 40's, who left recently or are planning to leave in the next few years from the part of NY I hail from is staggering, judging by social media posts I've seen and other on-the-ground assessments. People at or near their peak incomes are leaving blue states in droves, same for a lot of retirees of means.
The punishing taxes and in some cases costs of living in parts of blue states will keep pushing productive people out of them.
Illinois has been hemorrhaging for a long time now. For years.
The number of GenXers in my age range, say 40's, who left recently or are planning to leave in the next few years from the part of NY I hail from is staggering, judging by social media posts I've seen and other on-the-ground assessments. People at or near their peak incomes are leaving blue states in droves, same for a lot of retirees of means.
The punishing taxes and in some cases costs of living in parts of blue states will keep pushing productive people out of them.
Goes like this- Dems control States of CA and NY and drive them into the ground. Residents leave. Dems say its Trump's fault. WTF!
Dems work with Ukrainians to develop Steele novella of lies and get it out there using pet national media. Then Dems say Trump is a Russian puppet. WTF!
Dems vice-president uses a play for pay tactic to coerce the Ukrainian government to fire their own state prosecutor who wanted to bring the play for pay jack move to lite (hiring Biden's kid for $1 million @ year). Then impeach Trump for sticking his nose into this hot mess. WTF!
Nothing that 20 years in our federal prison system won't fix.
But- for people who say, "Just move"- it's not that easy. I was a property-casualty actuary. There were a LOT of jobs in the NYC area and I was in commuting distance to NYC. You can't just pick up and move to Fargo because the taxes are cheaper if you still want to work. It's more complicated with a 2-income couple. It was somewhat miraculous that when things went very bad in late 2001 and there was NOTHING in the area I found a great job in a KC suburb and I'm still here. And yes, the $10K SALT limitation is hitting me now but the impact isn't all that bad.
People talk about "the droves of people moving out" of cities, but that's where many of the jobs are, so you'll also have other droves moving in.
People talk about "the droves of people moving out" of cities, but that's where many of the jobs are, so you'll also have other droves moving in.
Not necessarily. Companies may have a harder time recruiting people to states with a high tax structure when there's little or no Federal relief. The company I joined in a KC suburb is still here although it was acquired in 2006. The acquiring company's HQ are in Westchester County, NY. There are a lot of new employees in my former department being hired in KC- it's not as expensive to pay employees here because the cost of living is lower. Not every company can choose to recruit in LCOL areas rather than adding to staff in the HCOL states, but for some it's an option. Jobs can move, too.
Public employees do get something to make up for (what used to be) lower than private-sector salaries... job security. They are very difficult to fire.
You can't have everything. A lifetime sinecure, a full pension, great benefits, and a high salary. That deal is crushing California and Illinois. Why is it we always hear about "fairness" and "sacrifice" when public employees want something, but as soon as they have it they're back to either a smug self-assuredness or just back at the begging table, whining for more?
Even FDR warned us against public-sector unions.
Most public sector white collar jobs require college degrees, and they are paid lower than their private-sector counterparts. As a whole the public sector looks like they're higher paid because the service and blue collar workers in the public sector tend to be employed by private contractors.
As for firing, it's just lazy administrators. If they do the paperwork, they can fire someone. It's easy enough.
Not necessarily. Companies may have a harder time recruiting people to states with a high tax structure when there's little or no Federal relief. The company I joined in a KC suburb is still here although it was acquired in 2006. The acquiring company's HQ are in Westchester County, NY. There are a lot of new employees in my former department being hired in KC- it's not as expensive to pay employees here because the cost of living is lower. Not every company can choose to recruit in LCOL areas rather than adding to staff in the HCOL states, but for some it's an option. Jobs can move, too.
We see this with trying to recruit Doctors to the SF Bay Area... what was once a magnet is not quite so today...
The 1960 1500 tract home in Santa Clara that is well maintained but all 1960 kitchen/bath with a small family room addition just sold with multiple offers 1.65M.
Young Docs see this and it just doesn't pencil out
We see this with trying to recruit Doctors to the SF Bay Area... what was once a magnet is not quite so today...
Geographic arbitrage is something more physicians are catching on to. In many cases not only is the COL lower in "flyover country, " the actual salary paid is higher. What's not to like about that?
About a decade ago I briefly considered moving back the the east coast. I would have taken about a 30% pay cut if I had done so, and my housing costs would have been higher. That's not the only reason I decided to stay put, but it did factor in.
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Russian propaganda ploy
