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The 7th has grown, but pretty much at the exact same rate as statewide, so you really can't diminish it in size.
As far as the liberal voters not wanting to turn out and vote for a blue dog, not always true (look at Schuler in Asheville, an area he did poorly in the Primary). As far as those who are less likely to turn out and playing around with them, keep in mind big difference in turnout in Presidential years and midterms. Playing with that a bit might help the GOP in a year like this, but it could blow up in their face in a Presidential year like 2012.
When you start playing around a bit too much, it could wind up blowing up in your face. Now they won a few of them back this year, but that is exactly what happened to the GOP through most of this decade in Pennsylvania. They were in charge of the last redistricting and in order to try to knock off a few Dems they made a few GOP districts a little less safe. Well that wound up resulting in the Dems picking up several seats in PA over the past few elections, and took them a very strong GOP year to win them back.
When it comes down to it, first and foremost the GOP is going to try and protect Elmers. As it stands now unless 2012 winds up being another very Republiucan year like this year was, Elmers is going to have a tough time of keeping that seat in the higher turnout atmosphere of 2012. In order to give the GOP a better chance of holding onto NC-2 in a higher turnout year it likely means sacrificing any chance of turning NC-4 or NC-13 of anything more than very slightly more GOP. Not nearly enough to change a solid Dem advantage in both districts.
Then you redistrict the most bitter Dem partisans to an adjacent safe rep seat and keep the indies. The app is really neat but takes into account 2008 numbers which will most certainly not be repeated since Obama is not looked kindly upon by the liberal base (plus this won't be historic anymore). I don't think they're going to treat Ellmers like royalty trying to protect her. They'll give her a little more cushion but it'll be up to her and her performance to really win reelection. The races were 55 and 57% so they are of interest enough to try winning them as well. Maybe the 13th will get more attention but I'm still of the opinion that some gerrymandering will be done to get that 57% down a few points. As 2011 looks to be worse than 2008 due to the high inflation that'll set in for QE2 and poor folks see grocery prices skyrocket beyond what the gov't will be willing to subsidize, we'll just see how much they'll support their guy. Not saying they'll vote Republican, but if Obama sells out he won't be considered black enough anymore for the minority crowd, meaning he'll be considered an Uncle Tom in their eyes. I'm still in the camp that Obama will let his own ego get the better of him (he's educated but not intellectually adaptive IMO)
Could you guys discuss this redistricting of one district in DM, please? It's not very interesting for those of us who know nothing about this one particular district.
Could you guys discuss this redistricting of one district in DM, please? It's not very interesting for those of us who know nothing about this one particular district.
This thread IS about election night and if the posters want to discuss a particular district, who are you to suggest they can't?
Just ignore it if you don't understand about the district.
This thread IS about election night and if the posters want to discuss a particular district, who are you to suggest they can't?
Just ignore it if you don't understand about the district.
If someone is going to discuss the results of a specific district, get to the point quickly, and don't re-invent the wheel; not everyone cares about one congressional district in the state of North Carolina. I'm certainly not going to go on-and-on, ad nauseam, about the results in MA because I know these forums are "national" in orientation..
If someone is going to discuss the results of a specific district, get to the point quickly, and don't re-invent the wheel; not everyone cares about one congressional district in the state of North Carolina. I'm certainly not going to go on-and-on, ad nauseam, about the results in MA because I know these forums are "national" in orientation..
Then pass those posts by - this thread is to discuss the election results - there is no disclaimer that limits what races posters can discuss. Pretty simple actually.
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