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Just look today, a +7...yes SEVEN point swing for Obama in approval...over a rolling AVERAGE!!
Gallup is a joke. Screw the LV and RV numbers, if Gallup is right on that approval, Obama will win easily (which he won't win easily...case in point).
Why does anyone use Gallup? Simple. Gallup is reporting the most favorable situation (of any non-partisan national poller) for my guy. It's called 'confirmation bias,' a process by which we humans seek out only the data that confirms our own views and ignore the rest. The thousands of posts on CD about polls and polling nearly all reflect confirmation bias. Seasoned pundits always have logical reasoning to cover up confirmation bias, but it is part of being human.
Meanwhile, in the real world, it is a horse race and nobody knows the outcome. Great entertainment, the country will survive either way, but many of us pretend that it might not. Get a drink or two and watch it unfold on Nov 6th. It's like college football, but with fewer injuries.
Obama up by 6 with registered voters in that poll. Looks like Obama's GOTV effort could matter here. In any case, it is closer than I thought. The talk is that FL is in the bag for Romney and now it appears that talk was premature.
Yea, explain the Ras poll??? The poll that you are citing is behind a pay wall and you have no idea of the methodology of it... Nice try.
Quote:
On behalf of Forum Communications Co., Essman/Research of Des Moines, Iowa, conducted a statewide telephone survey of 500 likely North Dakota voters from Oct. 12 through Monday, contacting randomly dialed respondents with both landline telephones (75 percent) and cell phones (25 percent).
The poll has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. The breakdown of respondents was divided among:
- Gender: 51 percent women, 49 percent men.
- Political affiliation: 42 percent identified themselves as independents, 35 percent as Republicans, 19 percent as Democrats. Two percent refused to answer the question and 1 percent identified in another way.
- Age: 22 percent were 18 to 30; 26 percent were 31 to 45; 37 percent were 46 to 65; and 15 percent were older than 65.
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