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Old 11-02-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: FL
20,702 posts, read 12,553,151 times
Reputation: 5452

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Didn't they have him up 5 points just a few days ago? It's clear that they're trying to salvage some shred of credibility now that it's clear where this race is headed.
Rasmussen usually falls in line toward the end of a race. Now they will be pretty consistent with others.

 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:23 AM
 
Location: it depends
6,369 posts, read 6,416,209 times
Reputation: 6388
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Romney's up 13 in Nebraska. So it looks like his no taxes, no abortion, no healthcare, no federal emergency assistance message is getting through to someone.
My roots are there, let me fill in some detail for you about motivations of some of these good folks. The small town bankers who are getting strangled under the needless burdens of Dodd Frank. The car dealers who were put out of business by the Auto Czar. The bondholders who got screwed by the UAW bailout. The union guy in the union plant getting shut down by the expansion of the EPA. The business owner who is expected to fund Obamacare, causing costs to rise above the cost of decent benefits previously provided to employees. The real estate agent whose deals are falling apart because prime borrowers are having such trouble getting conventional loans under Dodd Frank rules. Anybody with a hope of making $250k income, even if only for the year they retire and sell the business, who feels castigated and abused by the sniffling "fair share" rhetoric--even thought they pay their own share now and the shares of seven deadbeats riding on their back.

Add in those who object to the central narrative of Barack Obama, that the role of government should be permanently expanded, and you get to plus 13 for Romney pretty quickly.

Nebraska in its sentiments is probably a lot like coal country in PA and Ohio, rural areas of IA and WI, and even swaths of MI. The Obama campaign had better hope these people aren't paying attention...but I believe they are. They certainly are in Nebraska.
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:24 AM
 
Location: Knightsbridge
684 posts, read 825,930 times
Reputation: 857
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Translation to "Conservative": When a bunch of polls have Romney down, it ain't gud.

I don't know why this question keeps coming up. People can just Google "Nate Silver methodology."
Nate Silver actually went out of his way to describe potential problems with his methodology - Very respectable.

Oct. 30: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote - NYTimes.com

I would agree with his findings: If the state polls show bias against Romney(As they may do, per the man himself), then Obama holds the edge currently. While state polls have been in error before, it is less likely to be in error than national polls.

In the national polls, you have the outliers: National Journal with Obama up by 5 and Gallup with Romney up by 5. Slight edge is given to Obama.

However, given the closeness of this race, I will stand by my previous statement: If voter turnout is low, Romney wins. If voter turnout is high, Obama wins.
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:25 AM
 
Location: West Egg
2,160 posts, read 1,957,524 times
Reputation: 1297
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Romney's up 13 in Nebraska. So it looks like his no taxes, no abortion, no healthcare, no federal emergency assistance message is getting through to someone.
McCain won Nebraska by 15% in 2008. Comparatively, 13% down is a slight improvement for Obama.
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,093 posts, read 51,289,449 times
Reputation: 28337
Quote:
Originally Posted by marcopolo View Post
My roots are there, let me fill in some detail for you about motivations of some of these good folks. The small town bankers who are getting strangled under the needless burdens of Dodd Frank. The car dealers who were put out of business by the Auto Czar. The bondholders who got screwed by the UAW bailout. The union guy in the union plant getting shut down by the expansion of the EPA. The business owner who is expected to fund Obamacare, causing costs to rise above the cost of decent benefits previously provided to employees. The real estate agent whose deals are falling apart because prime borrowers are having such trouble getting conventional loans under Dodd Frank rules. Anybody with a hope of making $250k income, even if only for the year they retire and sell the business, who feels castigated and abused by the sniffling "fair share" rhetoric--even thought they pay their own share now and the shares of seven deadbeats riding on their back.

Add in those who object to the central narrative of Barack Obama, that the role of government should be permanently expanded, and you get to plus 13 for Romney pretty quickly.

Nebraska in its sentiments is probably a lot like coal country in PA and Ohio, rural areas of IA and WI, and even swaths of MI. The Obama campaign had better hope these people aren't paying attention...but I believe they are. They certainly are in Nebraska.
Give me a break! They voted Republican while Obama was still playing soccer in Kenya with Trump. It's cultural. His policies have little to do with it. Shoot, if anything they ought to appreciate Obama because he listened to them and got the Keystone out of the Sand Hills as they asked.
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:25 AM
 
44 posts, read 43,633 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
Rasmussen Reports daily tracker:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

All tied up!

Note -- Scott Rasmussen admitting the race is tied is like Terry Bradshaw admitting the Steelers might lose; it rarely happens and it doesn't bode well for the home team in either case (the Elephants or the Steelers).
Okay. I dont agree that Rassmussen is in the tank for Republicans, and do consider them more legitimate then MSM polls or University polls, So this one definitely stings a bit....And will make the Romney camp nervous....

Makes things more interesting.....for sure...
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,119 posts, read 34,781,879 times
Reputation: 15093
Quote:
Originally Posted by marcopolo View Post
My roots are there, let me fill in some detail for you about motivations of some of these good folks. The small town bankers who are getting strangled under the needless burdens of Dodd Frank.
I'll just stop you right there. How are these "small town bankers" getting strangled under Dodd -Frank?
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:29 AM
 
Location: FL
20,702 posts, read 12,553,151 times
Reputation: 5452
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Give me a break! They voted Republican while Obama was still playing soccer in Kenya with Trump. It's cultural. His policies have little to do with it. Shoot, if anything they ought to appreciate Obama because he listened to them and got the Keystone out of the Sand Hills as they asked.
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:31 AM
 
44 posts, read 43,633 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by marcopolo View Post
To while away the time on Election Night, before results come in, I will be compiling two lists compiled from posts on this thread. One list will be all those who made unambiguous predictions for an Obama victory, the other will be a list of all those who predicted Romney will win.

I will post these lists under the titles, "C-D Prediction Heroes" and "C-D Prediction Goats."

In my opinion, there is no telling which list will bear which title.

If you have vacillated in your posts or changed your mind or want to secure your place on either list, post an unambiguous prediction below this post and before midnight on Monday, November 5th. I can't tell how far back in the thread I will go (depends on time available), but I will certainly get back to this post.
Put me in the Romney will Win camp.
Prediction 52%-47%. with extra emphasis on the 47%!
 
Old 11-02-2012, 09:35 AM
 
Location: West Egg
2,160 posts, read 1,957,524 times
Reputation: 1297
Quote:
Originally Posted by racer_x View Post
Put me in the Romney will Win camp.
Prediction 52%-47%. with extra emphasis on the 47%!
So Scott Rasmussen's poll is showing a +5% Obama bias?

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