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Ohio is tight. Obama is holding a 1-1.7 lead (depending on including or not including the CBS poll which is a bit of an outlier compared to the others). Either way, his lead has fallen, which means GOP enthusiasm + big gains in 'coal country' /S Ohio for Romney could spell trouble for Obama.
Ohio is tight. Obama is holding a 1-1.7 lead (depending on including or not including the CBS poll which is a bit of an outlier compared to the others). Either way, his lead has fallen, which means GOP enthusiasm + big gains in 'coal country' /S Ohio for Romney could spell trouble for Obama.
i think the huge early voting edge will give Obama the win. I agree it will be close. My five county method as well has Obama winning.
Rasmussen + 3 = Obama +3 which is what the other survey you did not link has for Ohio today. Obama remains in the drivers seat in Ohio. And just a friendly reminder: No Ohio, no Romney in the White House.
Rasmussen's house effect is a little over one point according to Nate Silver.
Rasmussen's house effect is a little over one point according to Nate Silver.
Survey USA is a little over 2 for the Dems.
So I guess you could say Obama +1.
No, I will say Obama +3. Rasmussen's methodology is so bogus (automated voices, land lines, published numbers onlt, fudge factors known only to them) that they should be thrown out. SurveyUSA is a traditional poll and inherently more accurate.
Washington Post with an excellent article today, breaks down on where the race in Ohio and for the president will be won or lost.
The specifics are in 2004, Kerry won 84 percent of African Americans, who made up 10 percent of the total vote in Ohio. In 2008, Obama won 97 percent of the black vote, which comprised 11 percent of the total Ohio vote. The second is among young(ish) voters. Among the truly young — defined as those 18-29 years old — Kerry won 56 percent in 2004 while Obama took 61 percent in 2008. Among those 30-44 years old, Kerry took 47 percent to Obama’s 51 percent.
Today's polling is showing African American turnout at 91% with 4% not saying or responding. Among 18 to 34 yearolds Obama is up 59 to 34...
Washington Post with an excellent article today, breaks down on where the race in Ohio and for the president will be won or lost.
The specifics are in 2004, Kerry won 84 percent of African Americans, who made up 10 percent of the total vote in Ohio. In 2008, Obama won 97 percent of the black vote, which comprised 11 percent of the total Ohio vote. The second is among young(ish) voters. Among the truly young — defined as those 18-29 years old — Kerry won 56 percent in 2004 while Obama took 61 percent in 2008. Among those 30-44 years old, Kerry took 47 percent to Obama’s 51 percent.
Today's polling is showing African American turnout at 91% with 4% not saying or responding. Among 18 to 34 yearolds Obama is up 59 to 34...
The young will be too lazy to go to the polls this time. It's easy to say you're voting for Obama over the phone, quite another when you have to wait in the cold (Nov in Ohio will be quite chilly) to vote for someone you're not too excited about. It's always been difficult to get the youth to vote, although not as much in 2008 when H&C was the mantra.
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