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The question at this point is who comprises the 9%? We know that this 9% won't hold on election day. So IMO, the winner of this election comes down to the composition of the 9% and who leaves the 9.
Also, a Roanoke College poll in the same article has McAuliffe up 15% over Cuccinelli; however, they have McAuliffe with 46% of the vote, similar to the Quinnipiac, but have more undecideds and thus, less share for Cuccinellli.
Statistical tie means that the margin in the poll is equal to Margin of Error. 4 is not equal to 2.9.
Any "likely voter poll" is going to be wrong. For example Last year, Rassmussen defined a "likely voter" as anyone who had voted in the last 2 presidential elections. That means anyone who had turned 18 in 08 and voted for the first time was not called a likely voter. Anyone who turned 18 after 2008 and was planning on voting for the first time was not counted as a likely voter. That poll had Romney 49, Obama 48 (11/03/12), as you know. Romney actually lost by 3.9%
The question at this point is who comprises the 9%? We know that this 9% won't hold on election day. So IMO, the winner of this election comes down to the composition of the 9% and who leaves the 9.
Also, a Roanoke College poll in the same article has McAuliffe up 15% over Cuccinelli; however, they have McAuliffe with 46% of the vote, similar to the Quinnipiac, but have more undecideds and thus, less share for Cuccinellli.
When it comes down to it, we have had a slew of polls in the race the last few days. Two show it somewhat close, two show it in the double digits, the others generally show a lead in the 6-8 point range (which is where most the polling has been the last couple months). RCP average currently stands at 7.7 which again is pretty close to what that has been at over the last couple of months. There is little reason to believe Cuccinelli is going to win.
Is there such a thing as a moderate Republican anymore?
This race was decided way back at the beginning when the GOP decided to skip their primary and nominated the candidates at a conference. Doing an end-run around your base never works.
Is there such a thing as a moderate Republican anymore?
This race was decided way back at the beginning when the GOP decided to skip their primary and nominated the candidates at a conference. Doing an end-run around your base never works.
Bill Bolling would've beaten McAuliffe by 20 points. Dems would've stayed home like they did in 2009
We will never know, VTHokieFan. Because the GOP didn't trust their base to nominate somebody from the sane end of the party. Then they turned around and nominated a couple of loons.
We will never know, VTHokieFan. Because the GOP didn't trust their base to nominate somebody from the sane end of the party. Then they turned around and nominated a couple of loons.
ken cooch is who the base thinks is sane now.
thats why they do so horrid on the national level.
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