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[LEFT]President Barack Obama’s job approval slump and voters’ entrenched wariness of his health care law are dogging Democrats ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, and Republicans have captured a lead in the areas home to the year’s most competitive races, according to a new POLITICO poll.
In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference.
Devastating news for the Democrat Party and King Obama. At six months out from November, it's becoming less and less likely that the Democrats will be able to reverse their fortunes for the midterms.
The giant slices of people who said don't know leads me to believe this poll doesn't really tell much and not worth relying on to predict anything other than it will be the "don't knows" to decide these elections like usual.
The giant slices of people who said don't know leads me to believe this poll doesn't really tell much and not worth relying on to predict anything other than it will be the "don't knows" to decide these elections like usual.
So you choose to ignore the 20 something percent of people that said "don't know." That makes sense, I am sure you thought Romney was gonna win too when the polls said he was leading, yet ignored the amount of people who said "don't know." I am just being realistic here.
If I discount polls that show me something that I dislike, I had most certainly discount those polls that show me something that I do like. Right?
I tend to discount almost all political polls because they rarely account for the people who say they don't know up until the week of the election. It is always going to be those people that decide elections.
I tend to discount almost all political polls because they rarely account for the people who say they don't know up until the week of the election. It is always going to be those people that decide elections.
Yep that plus margin of error, selection bias, sampling errors, etc. I discount the ones I agree with faster than the ones I don't agree with. Which means I discount them all.
But for both sides of the isle they are useful tool for their useful idiots. Look numbers!
Devastating news for the Democrat Party and King Obama. At six months out from November, it's becoming less and less likely that the Democrats will be able to reverse their fortunes for the midterms.
Now, if only the GOP gave the people a reason to vote for them, other then relying on people voting against the dems as the singular motivation? Nah, just rely on the TEA party movement to pull the cart once again.
So I checked the numbers of the poll and its really interesting because it had 34% Democratic and 39% Republican. Now either there has been a seismic shift in the electorate that has just occurred last week that overturns at least a decade of party identification or this poll got a bad sample.
Upon reading further all the way to the bottom you can see this poll has the exact same problems as a similar poll in that is is a selective sampling of a collection of states that are as follows.
"Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New
Hampshire, Oregon, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia."
So basically what this poll does is take voters in all those states and lumps them together to try and find trends in any given race. It is a terrible way to measure support in any individual race and as the party ID numbers show is going to be highly misleading on a national scale.
Just goes to show you that Politico is absolutely worthless if you want to actually know how an election will turn out.
Last edited by Egbert; 05-19-2014 at 09:07 AM..
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