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GOP Pickups in:
Montana
South Dakota
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
Alaska
I believe the Republicans will also win at least two of the following, from most likely pickup to least likely:
North Carolina
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Virginia
Oregon
If Obama's approval rating remains as low as it is or continues to drop, we could very easily see a GOP pickup of ten Senate seats.
RCP hasnt had a poll on the Arkansas Senate race since June 5th. What made them change arkansas into the R column ?
Landrieu has been improving her numbers for 4 straight months and is now tied with her most likely challenger.
No one has polled in Alaska in about 4 months.
It's a no-toss-up analysis. They still think Arkansas is a toss-up, but this analysis required that they commit one way or another. They went R, because of Obama's terrible numbers in the state, and because the state has been steadily turning redder over the past two decades.
It's still a toss-up. Cotton's criticism of Pryor's faith recently seemed particularly "muddy", but the state is still deeply conservative.
51 seems realistic, not much more. Short of 55 seats, the GOP will stand no shot at retaining control by 2016, when the class of 2010 comes up. Those giveaways of the past (Engle, O'Donnell) would have given them a shot 2016 forward as well.
GOP Pickups in:
Montana
South Dakota
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
Alaska
I believe the Republicans will also win at least two of the following, from most likely pickup to least likely:
North Carolina
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Virginia
Oregon
If Obama's approval rating remains as low as it is or continues to drop, we could very easily see a GOP pickup of ten Senate seats.
I looked at the wiki page that organizes these things using multiple sources and I think you are being a little overly exuberant.
For example, most every poll except RCP has Iowa and NC leaning democrat.
I get it, it's your team and you are certainly going to pick up seats. However, I think the whole "very easily 10 seats" is starting to get into starry-eyed wishes territory.
I think 6 months ago talk of a republican majority Senate would have been wishful thinking but now it's more of a coin-flip. A couple more months might yet again change that landscape.
Regardless, while the Reps may not gain control of the Senate they are still going to gain A LOT of seats.
If Obama goes from 2008 full control to losing the house and senate by 2014.....that's a huge blow.
I would call it a huge plus for America. Then we can reverse all the very bad EO's he has illegally signed, stop the ACA (aka: Obama Care) until we can get full control and get rid of that nightmare, etc., etc.
GOP Pickups in:
Montana
South Dakota
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
Alaska
I believe the Republicans will also win at least two of the following, from most likely pickup to least likely:
North Carolina
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Virginia
Oregon
If Obama's approval rating remains as low as it is or continues to drop, we could very easily see a GOP pickup of ten Senate seats.
I think your GOP pickups are solid but I only see one good shot from your most likely group, North Carolina. Maybe Iowa but no way for the other 5.
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