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State polls use the RCP simple average of the most recent polls and then compare them to actual results...all per RCP
Swing States where Trump outperformed the polls
Maine Congressional District 2 Polls Trump 0.5%, Trump wins 10.4% = 9.9% off
South Carolina Polls Trump 6.3%, Trump wins 14.1% = 7.8% off
Wisconsin Polls Hillary 6.5%, Trump wins 0.8% = 7.3% off
Iowa Polls Trump 3.0%, Trump wins 9.5% = 6.5% off
Minnesota Polls Hillary 6.2%, Hillary won 1.5% = 4.7% off
Ohio Polls Trump 3.5%, Trump won 8% = 4.5% off
Michigan Polls Hillary 3.4%, Trump Won 0.3% = 3.7% off
Pennsylvania Hillary 1.9%, Trump won 1.1% = 3.0% off
North Carolina Trump 1%, Trump won 3.7% = 2.7% off
Florida Polls Trump 0.2%, Trump won 1.1% = 0.9% off
Georgia Polls Trump 4.8%, Trump won 5.2% = 0.4% off
New Hampshire Polls Hillary 0.6%, Hillary won 0.3% = 0.3% off
Swing States where Hillary outperformed the polls
Nevada Polls Trump 0.8%, Hillary won 2.4% = 3.2% off
Colorado Polls Hillary 2.9%, Hillary won 4.9% = 2.0% off
Virginia Polls Hillary 5%, Hillary won 5.4% = 0.4% off
Arizona Polls Trump 4.4%, Trump won 4.1% = 0.3% off
Trump rightfully mocks the scam BS polls during his thank you Tour. They so dumb...Our polls say Georgia, Texas etc is in play...but as soon as the actual poll closes, they call it for Trump...it's like wtf did you guys report on for the past 3 months?
The polls reliability are now suspect. They either need to figure out the problem with their polling data or just be considered unreliable.
I spent this entire election cycle trying to figure out who pollsters were talking to, because it wasn't anyone who responded like the people I knew. But you will, of course, notice it was the Trump polls that ran low. I can tell them some of the reasons why:
Trump had a lot of voters who would not be classified as "likely voter".
The conservatives I know are more likely to refuse to participate in a polll ("It's none of your damn business") than my more liberal friends.
In-person pollsters never quite made it to the areas where homes are spread out.
The way the questions were asked, both in word choice and tone.
Push polls were treated as if they were an equal reflection of opinion as real opinion polls.
I think people didn't want to admit they were going to vote for the person the media painted as Satan's spoiled little brother.
People ended up voting for someone they wished they weren't, the reality was they were undecided up until the minute they cast that vote.
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^Trump had an analytics team in Texas who figured this out too. They were the ones who identified the Hillary's weaknesses in Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania.
The polls reliability are now suspect. They either need to figure out the problem with their polling data or just be considered unreliable.
It's not possible. Behind every poll is a model - it's unavoidable - and the model is a set of assumptions that can be wrong.
Think about this. Say you have a big room with 10,000 people and you want to poll a subset of them to estimate the overall % of people who prefer Trump vs Hillary. You can sample 1,000 of them at random and (assuming no one lies) you can use statistics to calculate a margin of error and confidence interval. This kind of polling is mathematically sound because you are able to obtain a random sample of whole the population
But polling for a real election isn't like this. The population you want to sample is people who will vote. But there is no "room" of people who will vote that you can sample. So there is no way to sample that exact population in the correct ratios. You can make a model about who is likely to vote based on age, sex, race, blah blah blah, but those are assumptions. If Trump voters are simply more "energized" then your poll will be slanted unless you can somehow determine that fact - and how could you?
On top of that, in this election, there was so much Trump shaming that I'm sure some % of Trump voters either lied or refused to answer.
It is interesting. In the days of fine data analysis granularity, all polls are still very gross. Anyone on the ground, who really understands local political dynamics knew, for instance, despite the hopeful meme-type articles that Georgia was a +5% state. Libs/progrs have been salivating for six years now that Georgia was is going blue. It is all dependent on the demographics change trending deep blue. Not necessarily the case. Possible, but like the blue wall not holding true, it will depend on adhering to minorities voting blue monolithic voting patterns.
Remember the blue wall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doggiedog9
Trump rightfully mocks the scam BS polls during his thank you Tour. They so dumb...Our polls say Georgia, Texas etc is in play...but as soon as the actual poll closes, they call it for Trump...it's like wtf did you guys report on for the past 3 months?
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