No one is talking about the Democrats trouble with white, rural voters (house of representatives, Reagan)
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But if one party controls the Senate, and seems to have control for the next few years, they don't need the house or the presidency and can just block everything they don't like...sound familiar?
For the Democrats to win back the Senate, they have to win again in places like the Dakotas, the South, Idaho, the heartland etc.
And not too long ago their were Democratic Senators in North Dakota, Arkansas and Tennessee. That is not going to happen again anytime soon, and no one is talking about it. Hence the title of this thread.
In 2016, 24 Republican seats will be up for election in the Senate. Only 10 Democratic seats. Experts were saying that 9 of the 10 most likely seats to flip in the election are currently held by a Republican, with the 10th being the seat vacated by Harry Reid that could go either way. A lot of those 24 seats are in the Blue States. If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Senate will revert back to the Democrats. Winning back to the Senate won't really mean much, however, thanks to filibuster.
Thing is, there just isn't enough of them to win elections. The GOP's problem in urban centers is a much bigger deal because that is where elections are won.
And for the tenth time, at least they are trying to address this. The Dems lost the entire white south except Florida and Virginia (the latter of which they held by a thread in 2014) and they don't seem to mind.
And for the tenth time, at least they are trying to address this. The Dems lost the entire white south except Florida and Virginia (the latter of which they held by a thread in 2014) and they don't seem to mind.
That is because the Democrats know how to get to 270 in the Presidential elections, and they also know how many more seats the Republicans have to defend in the Senate. Unfortunately some Republicans and apparently you haven't figured out yet how hard of a year 2016 is gonna be for Republicans....
Angus King of Maine is an Independent who caucuses with the Senate Democrats.
He causes with the Dems, but is pretty independent. He is no Bernie Sanders
[quote[
On the second point highlighted, if he had won the suburban vote, Mitt Romney would have elected. He won the Southern suburban vote. In most of the Deep South there is very little difference between the white college and white non-college vote. (The exceptions in the South were North Carolina and Virginia, where the splits in the white vote were 14% and 17% respectively). Outside of the South, whites historically don't vote in racial lockstep. If and when the rest of the country votes like Mississippi, the Democrats are dead, but I wouldn't hold my breath.[/quote]
Again (possibly the 15th time I am saying this) I am not just talking about the Presidency, but the Senate, congress, state reps and governors.
Quote:
Urbanization by State
Completely irrelevant when you consider what is defined as "urbanized".
The census is absolutely arbitrary in defining it:
"For the 2010 Census, an urban area will comprise a densely settled core of census tracts and/or census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements, along with adjacent territory containing non-residential urban land uses as well as territory with low population density included to link outlying densely settled territory with the densely settled core" https://www.census.gov/geo/reference...ural-2010.html
So it is up to the Federal government who to and not to attach to an "urban area" and consider "urban." Many people living in small towns and suburbs would be surprised to find that they are in fact living in "urban areas" because the government says so.
What I am saying is the reality: outside of big urban cores filled with white hipsters and minorities, the Liberals are not very popular.
Block what? Dems got ACA through when they had the trifecta. The GOP Congress accomplished NOTHING. It is unable to reverse what BO got through his first few years, when DEms ran Congress.
Status Quo is victory for the Dems.
That was because the Dems took the Senate and the Congress thanks to Howard Dean, the one liberal who understood you need to go after the entire country to win. Now that he's gone it is hopeless.
In 2016, 24 Republican seats will be up for election in the Senate. Only 10 Democratic seats. Experts were saying that 9 of the 10 most likely seats to flip in the election are currently held by a Republican, with the 10th being the seat vacated by Harry Reid that could go either way. A lot of those 24 seats are in the Blue States. If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Senate will revert back to the Democrats. Winning back to the Senate won't really mean much, however, thanks to filibuster.
Mick
First of all, the same "experts" say Bernie Sanders is going to crash and burn. Second, it isn't that simple:
Everything has to go right for the Dems to win, and that means winning in places like North Carolina, Missouri, and Kentucky...
Even if the Republicans have a slim majority in the Senate, that won't mean anything because they would still need the support from some Democrats to get anything through the Senate. To do this, they would have to actually try compromising.
And when exactly are these "experts" say Sanders is gonna crash and burn because his common sense campaigning has put him on an upward trend in the polls.
What is a "white hipster?" Someone who lives in a city or a suburb, and doesn't work wearing a shirt with his name on it? Blue collar workers are a smaller share of the electorate in every four year cycle. Over 70% of the population live in urban areas of 50,000 or more. It's suburbia that rules on Election Day, not rural areas, and that's where POTUS elections are decided. Outside the South and relatively unpopulated fly over country, the GOP isn't very popular, particularly the brand of conservatism, pushed by the rural South. The more control rural white Southerners have over the Republican nomination process, the less likely that nominee will win the general election.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 10-02-2015 at 06:49 AM..
Everything has to go right for the Dems to win, and that means winning in places like North Carolina, Missouri, and Kentucky...
The Democrats can take the Senate without any of them, although North Carolina would certainly be helpful. They really don't need Missouri or Kentucky to take the Senate
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That was because the Dems took the Senate and the Congress thanks to Howard Dean, the one liberal who understood you need to go after the entire country to win. Now that he's gone it is hopeless.
