Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Silver has been incredibly accurate in previous analysis. One thing I would caution though is Trump has proven adaptable to win support and has been much better than I though he's be...my guess is that if he won the Repub nomination (which I still don't think he will), he would run to the center and woo independents.
Status:
"Smartened up and walked away!"
(set 21 days ago)
11,770 posts, read 5,781,921 times
Reputation: 14187
My son and most of his friends are Independents. Most were Rand Paul supporters - just as they were Ron Paul supporters. Months ago - I asked what happens if Rand isn't the nominee - he responded that most would vote 3rd party - Gary Johnson - they already knew he was going to throw his hat in again.
Now - it's a little different story - as though they still would like to support Gary Johnson - they have said they will most likely vote for the Republican candidate, with the exception of Bush, Rubio or Fiorina, just so we don't have another 4 yrs of inept policies. So Trump indeed would have their vote - would they be happy - no - but it's the lesser of two evils.
Oh I believe it.. Trump is brutally harsh at times when he's not needed to be, which is a real turn off to many. There is something to be said about not running around being a dck all the time, even if you're the smartest guy alive.. (and no, not saying he is, just that he acts like a dck more often than not)..
Many dont want someone like that running the nation.
He does act like a dck, and it is a turn off, but the thing I like about him at this moment in history is at least he's a fighter. Look at what the supposedly "nice" democrats do to conservatives. I was watching MSNBC last night and was reminded again why I defected in 2008 after Hillary lost the primary and Sarah Palin became the VP nominee. They are brutal to her. The condescension and outright vitriol was dripping from their mouths about her and her son, who like a lot of veterans who fought for this country, seems to be having some PTSD. I don't really care that much for Sarah Palin, but she's not even close to the white trash monster she's been painted to be.
Everytime liberals talk about how mean talk radio is, I will refer them to MSNBC. Rachael Maddow, Lawrence O'Donnell, Chris Hayes, all of them were such a-holes last night, especially Lawrence O'Donnell. Republicans say some pretty bad things about the Clintons, but it's about what they have done or have been accused of doing, mostly criminal stuff. But what they say about Sarah Palin and her family is deeply personal and vicious. I have never been more disgusted with a "news" channel in my life. The sad thing is I don't even think they realize how vicious they are towards conservatives, and how personal it usually is.
Silver has been incredibly accurate in previous analysis. One thing I would caution though is Trump has proven adaptable to win support and has been much better than I though he's be...my guess is that if he won the Repub nomination (which I still don't think he will), he would run to the center and woo independents.
The problem with Silver's analysis is he heavily uses historical trends. This is pretty much what statistics are. Things went like a certain way in the past so it's going to do so again.
Things are clearly different this time. Is it enough? We are going to find out soon but as has been noted, Silver has been claiming Trumps demise for a long time now and it hasn't happened.
If he doesn't win because the party undermine's him that wouldn't prove Silver right either.
My son and most of his friends are Independents. Most were Rand Paul supporters - just as they were Ron Paul supporters. Months ago - I asked what happens if Rand isn't the nominee - he responded that most would vote 3rd party - Gary Johnson - they already knew he was going to throw his hat in again.
Now - it's a little different story - as though they still would like to support Gary Johnson - they have said they will most likely vote for the Republican candidate, with the exception of Bush, Rubio or Fiorina, just so we don't have another 4 yrs of inept policies. So Trump indeed would have their vote - would they be happy - no - but it's the lesser of two evils.
Then they aren't actual Libertarians. They are just what I call banner carriers. Trump is as far as you can get from the Pauls without calling yourself a Democrat
Then they aren't actual Libertarians. They are just what I call banner carriers. Trump is as far as you can get from the Pauls without calling yourself a Democrat
Read the posts here, they are no different than the vast majority of people.
If you read Nate Silver's articles, you'll realize that he tweaks his predictions up until the last minute. In 2011, he was saying it looked like Obama was a one-termer. Now, if I can tweak my predictions up until midnight the day before the elections, I could probably predict the outcome too without a lot of chit-chat on the subject.
Not impressed. He should stick to baseball.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
