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It's my understanding that Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT, and that's a biased liberal bunch. Just because this guy got 2012 right doesn't make him the go to man for accuracy.
He was also right on in 2008. Take a look at the methodology and point out to specifics of why you think it was wrong.
"So, I decided to look back at the accuracy of polls in 2008.
There is such an assessment and it can be found here. The grading looks at 2 things; the accuracy of the final poll before the election and the consistency of its results to that outcome throughout October. Only one pollster earns an A grade for 2008: Rasmussen. It was, by far, the most accurate and consistent poll of the ’08 cycle.
A look at other media polls’ performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.
NBC/WSJ C
Marist D
ABC/WaP0 D+
Gallup D
CBS/NYT D-
Reuters F"
Again Breitbart used an article that was right after the 08 election as reference, Obama's actual margin was almost 1 point larger than what was in that article, which obviously would have some impact on the rankings.
Again Breitbart used an article that was right after the 08 election as reference, Obama's actual margin was almost 1 point larger than what was in that article, which obviously would have some impact on the rankings.
1 point is not bad really. Last election was a big deal because they were 5 points off and had Romney winning.
It's my understanding that Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT, and that's a biased liberal bunch. Just because this guy got 2012 right doesn't make him the go to man for accuracy.
Oh, he's been right in quite a few other elections.
Silver set up his elections blog in 2007.
NYT picked up the blog in 2010.
He got his start in statistics much earlier, first with online poker and then with baseball betting. He was good enough at both that he made quite a lot of money.
1 point is not bad really. Last election was a big deal because they were 5 points off and had Romney winning.
They were decent in 08 no question about it, however it is a bit of a stretch to call them the best when they had it at 6, and several pollsters had 7 and 8. They did good in 08, but weren't the best. 2012 they were down right terrible.
Also it is important to look at state level accuracy as well which 538's model does as well. Even the best pollsters can have a bad poll here and there which is why its good to look at a complete pollster's history along with the general consensus of the polls.
It's my understanding that Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT, and that's a biased liberal bunch. Just because this guy got 2012 right doesn't make him the go to man for accuracy.
Nate Silver left the NYT awhile back. It's connected to ESPN now.
It's my understanding that Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT, and that's a biased liberal bunch. Just because this guy got 2012 right doesn't make him the go to man for accuracy.
Silver is no longer associated with the New York Times. He's not a liberal blogger. He's a statistician. He first made his mark in sports where he revolutionized use of statistics in analyzing baseball. He then began analyzing poll results. His methods determine the average inherent bias in polls and then adjusts the polls to account for that bias. Over the past 2 presidential elections he has called all but 1 state correctly for an accuracy rating of 99%.
Silver is no longer associated with the New York Times. He's not a liberal blogger. He's a statistician. He first made his mark in sports where he revolutionized use of statistics in analyzing baseball. He then began analyzing poll results. His methods determine the average inherent bias in polls and then adjusts the polls to account for that bias. Over the past 2 presidential elections he has called all but 1 state correctly for an accuracy rating of 99%.
And that one state he got wrong? He predicted McCain would carry North Carolina in 2008 - instead, Obama narrowly won it.
Senate seats in 2012? Silver predicted all of them right but one. Again, that miss was in favor of Republicans - he thought the GOP would hold the seat in North Dakota, which was won by Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...forecast/?_r=0
Boy, for a pair of forecasters supposedly blinded by their liberal bias, they sure do manage to call a high percentage of races spot-on, while erring to the right as much as to the left.
Two new polls out of the Carolina's from Gravis. Gravis has partnered with Breitbart, though can't tell if these particular polls are partnered with Breitbart or not.
In S.C Trump is up by 46-42 in a 2-way and 41-37 in a 4-way
In NC, Clinton is up 44-43 in a 2-way, and Trump up 39-38 in a 4-way. They polled Stein who is at 2 % in the poll despite her not being on the ballot in NC. The demographics of 79% white and 10% African American is really quite a bit off the wall considering the demographics of the state.
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