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But again this has been covered several times by Hillary supporters and Trump supporters. Online poll does not = garbage. Hell, Nate Silver gives CVoter a C+ rating. Are you going to argue that a supposed polling expert is wrong, too?
What has been argued is that not ALL online polls are garbage.
Some are conducted using the same methodology as phone polls - properly balanced sample, etc.
However, the polls that "pop-up" have no such controls nor are the data weighted before the results are published so that they accurately represent the voting public.
They are simply collections of the responses of the people that took the time to answer, exactly the same as any poll here on C-D.
In other words, completely unscientific.
I would argue that a C+ rating is nothing to brag about.
No idea why anyone would try to defend it.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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The most interesting state is Colorado. Trump has been barely ahead in the past few polls but Gary Johnson is around 13%, which makes me think in CO GJ is taking votes from Clinton rather than Trump. Sounds like Bernie voters who haven't made the jump to Clinton yet. CO is big, if Trump wins there Hillary can not loose Florida.
What has been argued is that not ALL online polls are garbage.
Some are conducted using the same methodology as phone polls - properly balanced sample, etc.
However, the polls that "pop-up" have no such controls nor are the data weighted before the results are published so that they accurately represent the voting public.
They are simply collections of the responses of the people that took the time to answer, exactly the same as any poll here on C-D.
In other words, completely unscientific.
I would argue that a C+ rating is nothing to brag about.
No idea why anyone would try to defend it.
But you are wrong. Silver has discussed this - the difference between a "C" pollster and a "A" pollster is VERY small.
Quote:
Let me take that analogy a bit further. In baseball, there isn’t much difference in an absolute sense between a .300 hitter and a .260 hitter — it amounts to getting about one extra hit during each week of the baseball season. Likewise, the differences in poll accuracy aren’t that large. We estimate that the very best pollsters might be about 1 percentage point more accurate than the average pollster over the long run. However, the average poll in our database missed the final election outcome by 5.3 percentage points. That means even the best poll would still be off by 4.3 points. It’s almost always better to take an average of polls rather than hoping for any one of them to “hit a bullet with a bullet.”
The most interesting state is Colorado. Trump has been barely ahead in the past few polls but Gary Johnson is around 13%, which makes me think in CO GJ is taking votes from Clinton rather than Trump. Sounds like Bernie voters who haven't made the jump to Clinton yet. CO is big, if Trump wins there Hillary can not loose Florida.
False.
CO is not that big. It's 9 electoral votes.
Hillary could still lose FL and CO and win the election if she wins either OH or NC. However it is very unlikely Trump will win Colorado because of the Latino Population and college educated white population. If I were his campaign I would try WI or MI instead
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