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The election comes down to the black vote. If the numbers are like 2012 Clinton wins. if the vote is low trump wins. Most states are so close it'll come down to a few votes
Lower black turnout in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida could be critical, but it's more complicated than that. Romney won whites by 20% and still lost. If Trump does become the first R since '52 to lose college whites, he's going to need a combination of a huge non-college white/ lower black turnout to make up the difference. Melania Trump is making an appearance in the Philly 'burbs today to try to win back some of that white college grad female vote. There's a third bloc to watch, and that's Latinos, although their importance pales next to white college and blacks because they are concentrated in a few states. They could keep Hilly in the game late into the night in Florida, Colorado and Nevada though.
The broader question is whether there is a genuine movement to Trump or if this is the reverting to the norm that we saw in late polls to Romney in 2012. It will be interesting watching the polls over the weekend to see if we have the usual "herding" affect as outlier pollsters revert to the general consensus. My guess as to where we stand now nationally is Clinton +2 or 3%, which has been where the national average over the past few elections.
Why do you see Clinton on rnb and hip hop stations all the time now. She knows the young black demo is crucial and they arnt coming out.
Trump also will need more blacks and hispanics for him to have any chance.
With regards to the black vote my feeling is Trump will do much better than 4-6% predicted. My guess is he`ll receive anywhere from 15-20 percent. Like the black vote the 18-29 year old vote is down from 2012 as well.
With Hispanics I believe he will also do better than expected. Although how much better is anyone's guess.
The enthusiasm level for Trump by his supporters is on par with the Obama supporters of 08.
Unless the black vote as well as the 18-29 pick up considerably those numbers will fall short of 2012
Anything State under 2% by Nov. 8th will likely go Trump. You can talk about the superior Clinton ground game but there just isn`t much excitement for her outside of the base.
Cheating might be all that is left for the Clinton camp but I don`t see the Dems getting away with it this election.
Being a rational person, I found the article interesting. Of course, I have been beating the drum for months that one should take polls (especially national) with a grain of salt, noting that Gallup is sitting out this election while it tries to determine the best way to accurately poll in this brave new world. From the linked article:
"Getting a truly representative sample has become ever more difficult because of the growing percentage of households with only cellphones, the number of voters who prefer to speak a language other than English, and the difficulty in contacting younger voters, who generally don’t have landlines."
Thus is why I have pointed out that we should look for the 'effect' of each parties 'private polling', which, presumably, uses some method similar to what the author pointed out in his article:
"Smart campaigns can use “little data” to solve these problems. They look at public data sets that list each registered voter’s name, address, party registration and election participation history. By analyzing these voter files, they develop an accurate idea of the makeup of the electorate. Rather than rely on voters’ (frequently inaccurate) estimates of their own likelihood to vote, these campaigns look at their turnout record, thus getting a very precise idea of who “likely voters” really are. The media outlets that conduct national polls usually can’t afford to do this."
Now, by 'effect' I mean this: The Democratic and Republican parties each conduct their own private polls, accessible, of course, to elected officials of each party, but not to the public. I had pointed out before that one way to determine if Mr. Trumps' numbers were truly improving would be this: Republicans up for election would be leaping back onto the Trump bandwagon.
I had said before that I suspect that the reason so many Republicans bailed on Mr. Trump after the "Billy Bush" audiotape was not due to the crude comments made by Mr. Trump (he was already know for such), but because it provided a convenient way, on 'moral grounds', for them to disavow Mr. Trump, based on what they were observing in the Republican polls. In other words, some (but not all) Republicans were looking for a reason to jump off the Trump train, and these audios provided the perfect cover.
On the Democratic side, I have not seen where you have Democrats, running for re-election, jumping off the Hillary ship. If these politicians were looking for an excuse to distance themselves from Ms. Clinton, they have had ample, and I mean ample, opportunities to do so.
Yet, they have not. I think, again, they are looking at the private polls commissioned by the Democratic National Party, see the results, and so are staying on board.
Ah, 'tis the season of the outlier polls. This is the witching hour when you can get headlines and clicks with any and every sorry-azz poll that you can come up with. It is probably advisable to pay more attention to early voting results than polls these days.
...On the Democratic side, I have not seen where you have Democrats, running for re-election, jumping off the Hillary ship. If these politicians were looking for an excuse to distance themselves from Ms. Clinton, they have had ample, and I mean ample, opportunities to do so.
Yet, they have not. I think, again, they are looking at the private polls commissioned by the Democratic National Party, see the results, and so are staying on board.
My guess is a number have already jumped ship but just not publicly. Dems in office aren't gong to bad mouth her in the press.
However, many aren`t necessarily speaking up or campaigning for her either.
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