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I think if the situation in the Rust Belt is making those states competitive and as some have stated, moving more towards the Republican column, I think the same thing could be said about some other states moving in the opposite direction.
I think Arizona could easily flip to being a blue state given the demographic changes out there and the Hispanic influence. The state also doesn't have a huge evangelical bent and is more libertarian than authoritarian on social issues. Arizona also has strong cultural ties to Southern California, which other than in Los Angeles proper, once leaned Republican but now is a solidly blue megalopolis.
I think Georgia is the next state to do with Virginia did. Metro Atlanta is growing and becoming bluer, while rural Georgia is aging. I think the balance will be tipped there soon and Georgia will become a blue-leaning state, much like Virginia.
North Carolina on the other hand is more likely to become a Florida. It will remain a red leaning state but be very competitive for Democrats.
The big thing the GOP needs to watch is Texas. Texas is currently seeing an influx of people from all over the country and world. It's cities are becoming very culturally and politically diverse and that breeds liberalism. It shows as most of Texas' large cities are solidly liberal. The state is simply so large and has such a large rural population that Republicans dominate it. That could change. As Texas cities continue to grow and become more diverse and rural Texas continues to decline, the scale could tip there in favor of the Democrats. If that ever happens, the GOP is done. I think that we are probably 10-12 years away from this if it were to happen, but it's something the GOP needs to watch if it wants to remain a viable national party in the future.
The contrast between the "red" and "blue" states (or between the "red" and "blue" mentality, for that matter) boils down to a clash between the productivity/work ethic and the compassion/welfare ethic. -- among individuals and within everyone's conscience. I think most of us, in our heart of hearts, know that a complete imposition of one or the other will never be possible, and when the distortions, from either side, get too great, the better-educated swing voters hold the balance of power. That is what brought the dreams of a "progressive"? Democratic hegemony down to earth last November, just as an over-simplified conservative ideology was rejected all the way back in 1964, and we're all much safer as long as the process can repeat itself as needed.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 04-16-2017 at 04:42 PM..
The contrast between the "red" and "blue" states (or between the "red" and "blue" mentality, for that matter) boils down to a clash between the productivity/work ethic and the compassion/welfare ethic. -- among individuals and within everyone's conscience. I think most of us, in our heart of hearts, know that a complete imposition of one or the other will never be possible, and when the distortions, from either side, get too great, the better-educated swing voters hold the balance of power. That is what brought the dreams of a "progressive"? Democratic hegemony down to earth last November, just as an over-simplified conservative ideology was rejected all the way back in 1964, and we're all much safer as long as the process can repeat itself as needed.
So tired of the fallacy that blue states = non-working and red states = working. It is provenly false. The unemployment in Seattle is around 3%. San Francisco is 3.4%. The top five states on Social Security Disability (aka permanent unemployment and includes Medicare) are all in the South, West Virginia (almost 10% of the state is on Disability), Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi. In fact, as welfare has steadily decreased, Disability has increased in direct proportion. http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/
Welfare is funded by the state while Social Security Disability is federally funded. In fact, when Eric Conn was caught making millions on false Disability claims, they tried to stop the payments to have them reviewed. Immediately Eastern Kentucky protested.
"The move was a blow in Eastern Kentucky, where disability income is a significant part of the economy.
Republicans do not work more than Democrats, in fact, it appears the truth is quite the opposite. There is no reason the Eastern Kentucky economy should be depending on Social Security Disability. Of course, their Republican congressman kept the payments coming to Eastern Kentucky. Why do my tax dollars need to go to Eastern Kentucky?!
I don't care if red states stay red, as long as I'm not paying for them. My blue state just wants to keep our tax dollars at home and tell red states to pay for themselves.
I think if the situation in the Rust Belt is making those states competitive and as some have stated, moving more towards the Republican column, I think the same thing could be said about some other states moving in the opposite direction.
I think Arizona could easily flip to being a blue state given the demographic changes out there and the Hispanic influence. The state also doesn't have a huge evangelical bent and is more libertarian than authoritarian on social issues. Arizona also has strong cultural ties to Southern California, which other than in Los Angeles proper, once leaned Republican but now is a solidly blue megalopolis.
I think Georgia is the next state to do with Virginia did. Metro Atlanta is growing and becoming bluer, while rural Georgia is aging. I think the balance will be tipped there soon and Georgia will become a blue-leaning state, much like Virginia.
North Carolina on the other hand is more likely to become a Florida. It will remain a red leaning state but be very competitive for Democrats.
The big thing the GOP needs to watch is Texas. Texas is currently seeing an influx of people from all over the country and world. It's cities are becoming very culturally and politically diverse and that breeds liberalism. It shows as most of Texas' large cities are solidly liberal. The state is simply so large and has such a large rural population that Republicans dominate it. That could change. As Texas cities continue to grow and become more diverse and rural Texas continues to decline, the scale could tip there in favor of the Democrats. If that ever happens, the GOP is done. I think that we are probably 10-12 years away from this if it were to happen, but it's something the GOP needs to watch if it wants to remain a viable national party in the future.
Arizona: not real likely since so many people moved here to get AWAY from Calif's alt left attitudes. Even many "Hispanics" here looks down on amnesty for illegal aliens and la raza.
In the near future, no red states will go blue, and long before they do, 6-12 more electoral votes/decade will shift blue to red at least twice simply due to census population redistribution.
The Dems must appeal to the Rust Belt or face not winning POTUS for many election cycles to come.
Every other region between the coasts has long ago rejected the Democrats.
A majority minority USA is a long way away if it comes, plus it will not be an evenly distributed thing. Blue states continuously become a smaller % of US population.
In the near future, no red states will go blue, and long before they do, 6-12 more electoral votes/decade will shift blue to red at least twice simply due to census population redistribution.
The Dems must appeal to the Rust Belt or face not winning POTUS for many election cycles to come.
Every other region between the coasts has long ago rejected the Democrats.
A majority minority USA is a long way away if it comes, plus it will not be an evenly distributed thing. Blue states continuously become a smaller % of US population.
Rust Belt or Bust s/b DNC motto.
I do believe the Rust Belt is becoming more Republican. Ohio is as well. Demographic changes and the increasing identity politics is making it a perfect fit for the GOP.
I think the booming states in the Sunbelt though will go from red to blue within the next few election cycles. My bet is on Georgia and North Carolina first and then Texas within 20 years.
I do believe the Rust Belt is becoming more Republican. Ohio is as well. Demographic changes and the increasing identity politics is making it a perfect fit for the GOP.
I think the booming states in the Sunbelt though will go from red to blue within the next few election cycles. My bet is on Georgia and North Carolina first and then Texas within 20 years.
Ga is hardly close to flipping. Dems got 45% 2012, 45.9% 2016. That's miles from a majority. Southern cities do not have the % of state population NYC does, and ritzy Atlanta burbs are hardly blue. Dems need inner city population growth and for them to actually turn out and vote.
Texas would not change for many decades.
Plus over the next 15 years, Dems will lose the equivalent of Georgia due to population shifts.
In the near future, no red states will go blue, and long before they do, 6-12 more electoral votes/decade will shift blue to red at least twice simply due to census population redistribution.
The Dems must appeal to the Rust Belt or face not winning POTUS for many election cycles to come.
Every other region between the coasts has long ago rejected the Democrats.
A majority minority USA is a long way away if it comes, plus it will not be an evenly distributed thing. Blue states continuously become a smaller % of US population.
Rust Belt or Bust s/b DNC motto.
No thanks. The Rust Belt seems to be dreaming of a day when Democrats beg for their favor. I would rather they live with Republican policies than for Democrats to cater to them. Democrats may have lost the electoral but their received more votes. Bottom line, let the Rust Belt deal live the results of their vote. Let them see if coal comes back. Let them live the result of demolishing the EPA. Let them reduce funding for education, etc. I definitely do not want to cater to the Rust Belt, they are not a success to emulate. If red states want to change, they will but I really don't care if they do or not.
No thanks. The Rust Belt seems to be dreaming of a day when Democrats beg for their favor. I would rather they live with Republican policies than for Democrats to cater to them. I definitely do not want to cater to the Rust Belt, they are not a success to emulate. If red states want to change, they will but I really don't care if they do or not.
If you don't want the Dems to win over the midwest, that's fine. You can guarantee Republican victories for many elections to come
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