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RCP currently shows 11 possible D pickups for governors.
FL, IL, IA, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, WI, GA, KS
I'll believe Georgia elects a Democratic governor when it actually happens, although Abrams certainly shows potential for one of the best performances for her party for several cycles. She has talked about turning out new voters, and given most regular voters in this state always choose the same party, that strategy is definitely going to be key to winning. Democrats appear to be on track to flip Illinois, New Mexico and Michigan governors at a minimum at this point.
Looking back, the GOP gained 54 seats in 1994, and 63 in 2010, for the two biggest swings in memory. In 1994, a big issue was the so-called 'assault weapon ban' which had been pushed by then-rep Chuck Schumer (D, NY) and signed by President Clinton. House Speaker Tom Foley, from mostly rural Eastern WA, lost his seat to a pro-gun Republican.
In 2010, a big issue was Obamacare, which had been signed by President Obama in March 2010. There were also 54 'blue dog' (conservative) Democrat house members, most of whom lost their seats in Nov. 2010. IIRC the number of blue dogs was down close to single digits after that (currently at 18).
I am hard pressed to think of any recent action by the GOP that might provoke a 60 seat swing, although maybe the 38 GOP house retirements combined with issues less major than Obamacare could do it.
The GOP won 56 seats in 1946, to take the house for the first time post-depression. Then the Democrats won 85(!) seats in 1948 to take it back. I don't know what the big issues were. Perhaps 1946 was the due to the unpopularity of Truman, so there may be a parallel to 2018 there.
RCP currently shows 11 possible D pickups for governors.
FL, IL, IA, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, WI, GA, KS
The other big factor would be which states had R Governors after the 2010 census but might have D governors after the 2020. If you look at states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Florida- you have states that are 50-50 in how they vote but can approach 75-25 in how their seats are drawn in Congress. Even if Dems don't fully control the redraw being able to pull it closer to the states actual representation will even out the numbers somewhat. It would also mean more competitive districts that are less likely to elect extreme candidates of any party.
Your opinion and you are entitled to it, but be real, 60 is a lot of turnover. Anyone who understands politics and has followed it for years knows, that would pretty much mean, they would have to hold all the seats they already have and The GOP would have to lose 60. That is extremely unlikely. As for out of the question, of course it is not, nothing is out to the question. It is still terribly unlikely.
Did you miss the part where I guessed they pick up around 40 to 50 seats?
The Democrats won 31 seats in 2006, so there is recent precedent
But that happened due to the unpopularity of George W Bush and the Iraq war. Also a string of GOP congressional corruption scandals (Duke Cunningham, etc). I don't see anything comparable in 2018. I'm half-expecting an October surprise of some kind, from one side or the other, or maybe even both.
But that happened due to the unpopularity of George W Bush and the Iraq war. Also a string of GOP congressional corruption scandals (Duke Cunningham, etc). I don't see anything comparable in 2018. I'm half-expecting an October surprise of some kind, from one side or the other, or maybe even both.
Also 31 is barely over half of 60.
I think 60 is optimistic, but the Democrats will win a House majority.
The time is similar now to 2006, but it is less intense now than it was then.
However, that could change after the recent hurricane and the latest Chinese tariff skirmish. Once steel prices start rising due to the tariffs, and all the Chinese goods rise even more, people all over are going to feel the pinch well before the election.
And Florence's flooding has wiped out a lot of crops, hogs and chickens. Millions of chickens were lost last week, and more will follow before the water receeds. I expect prices will go up on all the food and crops that come from the Carolinas.
The flood came just as harvest was in full swing, so it will cause some shortages that can't be made up by the other states.
N.Carolina is one of the nation's top growers of sweet potatoes. We won't be seeing them much come Thanksgiving. That crop is nearly a total loss.
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