[CJFlorida]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

man oh man, if they are this desperate now, can you imagine what November of 2008 is going to look like? I hate to say this but, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these people don't attempt suicide. Its sad but people link importance in life with money. Pretty sad state of affairs.

It finally happened, the Zillow estimate on the house I sold in 2005 dropped below what I sold it for. I bought for $325,000 in 2003, sold for $550,000 in 2005. The flipper has had it on the market for 14 months now at $780,000!!! I mean he did pave the driveway...that has to be worth a few hundred thousand at least!

He has switched realtors 3 times now, like that matters. The Zillow range is now $455,000-$525,000 with the 'value' at $501,000.

It is in Palm Beach County which has a 5 year inventory. My guess is that it drops eventually to 1999 prices which was about $280,000.

The insane part is that a realtor actually took over the listing last week...at $780,000...when even the inflated Zillow is only $501,000. Honestly, what is the point in living that far in denial!!

[markas214]

Zillow is a joke. They list homes in my area of Pa 200-300k less than what they actually selling for. Don't use it to estimate a homes value. I use it exclusively to see what homes sold for in an area not what Zillow guesses it's worth.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by markas214

Zillow is a joke. They list homes in my area of Pa 200-300k less than what they actually selling for. Don't use it to estimate a homes value. I use it exclusively to see what homes sold for in an area not what Zillow guesses it's worth.

On top of that, it contains a plethora of errors and omissions in terms house details.

I use it mainly to know the exact position of a house, maybe some historical infomation as mentioned above (sales history, etc.), then switchover to Google Earth to get a better comprehensive picture of its strategic location.

One needs to use all the tools available, no one tool is sufficient: remember, even these tools were designed with somebody's agenda in mind.

[lostbuyer]

This sanchez guy is my new favorite ,real estate expert quote guy.His insight is classic in a dumb and dumber kind of way,"just when I thought you couldnt get any dumber Lloyd,you go and do this and totally redeem your self!!!! I mean surely this "hurry and buy now,prices wont last long" will bring the market right back to life,right?? They got people to talk to them,so thats proof positive the technique was a success. 04 prices are historically unprecedented,wait for 98 prices they will "defy logic,and the rules of gravity" I fully expect flippers anonymous to start after this is over,"state your name and tell us a little about yourself,hi all my name is joe6pack ,I just wanted to get rich without doing any actual work ,isn't that what the american dream is about?anyhow I was holding two properties waiting on the rebound,I was finally foreclosed on two weeks ago,(speaker) its o.k. Joe getting foreclosed is the first step in recognizing you have a problem..

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by CJFlorida

It finally happened, the Zillow estimate on the house I sold in 2005 dropped below what I sold it for. I bought for $325,000 in 2003, sold for $550,000 in 2005. The flipper has had it on the market for 14 months now at $780,000!!! I mean he did pave the driveway...that has to be worth a few hundred thousand at least!

He has switched realtors 3 times now, like that matters. The Zillow range is now $455,000-$525,000 with the 'value' at $501,000.

It is in Palm Beach County which has a 5 year inventory. My guess is that it drops eventually to 1999 prices which was about $280,000.

The insane part is that a realtor actually took over the listing last week...at $780,000...when even the inflated Zillow is only $501,000. Honestly, what is the point in living that far in denial!!

what do you think 2009 is going to look like? I think it might be a little worse. They say Prime and Commercial real estate will be going down the tubs around then

[cmsvmom]

A realtor will take over a listing because they want the market share. If they don;t take it, another realtor will.

Realtors want to sell houses, so insane high asking prices are usually not coming from them, but from the seller. The realtor just says, yes, we can list it at that price and market it agressively and see what the buyers will do.

I think I read somewhere that Palm Beach county was the worst in terms of inventory on the market. Is that true, or is there someplace where the inventory is even more stubborn?

[CJFlorida]

Originally Posted by cmsvmom

A realtor will take over a listing because they want the market share. If they don;t take it, another realtor will.

Realtors want to sell houses, so insane high asking prices are usually not coming from them, but from the seller. The realtor just says, yes, we can list it at that price and market it agressively and see what the buyers will do.

I think I read somewhere that Palm Beach county was the worst in terms of inventory on the market. Is that true, or is there someplace where the inventory is even more stubborn?

Palm Beach County has a 55 month inventory, I think that is tops in the state. If not, someone let us know where else is worse.

I hear you on realtors taking listings. But I can't imagine running my business that way. I think I would try to find sellers who were realistic and offer them a cut commission and a quick sale. Or find another line of work.

I guess I don't see the point of listing a house for $780,000 month after month for 14 months, when the appraisal has no chance of coming back over $500,000. Seems like you might as well stand on the corner and sell glasses of lemonade for $50,000.

[cmsvmom]

[quote=CJFlorida;2496783
I hear you on realtors taking listings. But I can't imagine running my business that way. I think I would try to find sellers who were realistic and offer them a cut commission and a quick sale. Or find another line of work.

I guess I don't see the point of listing a house for $780,000 month after month for 14 months, when the appraisal has no chance of coming back over $500,000. Seems like you might as well stand on the corner and sell glasses of lemonade for $50,000.[/QUOTE]

I used to be a realtor, and I work assisting some of them with marketing materials now. The rationale is that once you have the listing, you have it. No one else does. You have time to get the seller to see reason, or find a buyer that might actually make a decent offer. If the seller does not price within a reasonable appraisal range, it is frustrating for all.

But more than that, you have something to put on your website and mailings, something to show at open houses where you meet more buyers. You have something in the brokers office window that people might call you up and ask about- even if they are saying "come on, you want $780,000 for THAT?" And if they don't buy that house, they will buy another one, or maybe have one to sell themselves. And they might as well buy another house from you.

So, if a seller will not see reason in pricing or offers, a realtor still can get some milage out of a listing. Lots of work, lots of risk. But successful sales people are visible sales people. My first listing was an overpriced wreck - seller would not negotiate on price, and it sat on the market for months. We advertised and showed it a lot. I did sell it - for close to the asking price - but before I did, I had three other deals out of inquiries on it. (and I held my breath on the appraisal, it was close)

I am in NJ - we are just not seeing a lot of buyers right now. It is as though they are waiting for something to happen. They are here, qualified, etc - They are just not out looking like they were before. Not good news for me, since I have to sell in NJ before I buy in Florida - and I would much rather live in Florida.

[hiknapster]

For all of us that have been warning of this, here's our validation:

At any rate, for these remedies to cure what ails us, housing prices need to fall to their equilibrium level. As I said on Dec. 3 and Dec. 17, this means a drop of at least 25%.

The quicker home prices fall, the sooner the housing market will stabilize, the faster holders of mortgage-backed securities will be able to judge their worth, thus triggering renewed bank lending, and the sooner the economy can get back on its feet.

It is worth reading the entire article:

This is not your father's recession - MarketWatch

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by CJFlorida

Palm Beach County has a 55 month inventory, I think that is tops in the state. If not, someone let us know where else is worse.

I hear you on realtors taking listings. But I can't imagine running my business that way. I think I would try to find sellers who were realistic and offer them a cut commission and a quick sale. Or find another line of work.

I guess I don't see the point of listing a house for $780,000 month after month for 14 months, when the appraisal has no chance of coming back over $500,000. Seems like you might as well stand on the corner and sell glasses of lemonade for $50,000.

my wife said, she heard on the radio that brickel is the hardest hit neighborhood in s. florida

Originally Posted by hiknapster

For all of us that have been warning of this, here's our validation:

At any rate, for these remedies to cure what ails us, housing prices need to fall to their equilibrium level. As I said on Dec. 3 and Dec. 17, this means a drop of at least 25%.

The quicker home prices fall, the sooner the housing market will stabilize, the faster holders of mortgage-backed securities will be able to judge their worth, thus triggering renewed bank lending, and the sooner the economy can get back on its feet.

It is worth reading the entire article:

This is not your father's recession - MarketWatch

I agree with this article EXCEPT, I don't think you can make a blanket claim like that (25% decrease). It depends on the area you are in, how bad have prices gotten in those areas, and then take into account average annual income per house hold. Then you can get a picture of where they need to go as far as prices.