[FLBob]

Florida’s growth rate has been phenomenal for decades and projections for continued growth have not yet been revised sharply downward. In recent years the rate of growth may have slowed but experts whose job it is to monitor population trends say that the net
population of Florida is still on the increase. For information on Florida’s growth trend see “IS FLORIDA SHRINKING?”.

As I’ve watched real estate prices fall and inventories rise I began to wonder if the projections for growth in Florida had changed. As a resident who loves the Florida lifestyle I can’t comprehend how someone would not wish to live in the “Sunshine State”. I’ve listened to so many people argue the demographic shift of an aging America would guarantee continued growth.

I believe that the current slower rate of growth will eventually tick back to a faster rate as Americans retire. Many, who have worked their entire life with the dream of retiring to a place where almost everyday the sun shines, will realize that they can’t put off the move forever without giving up on their dream.

In the mean time this pause in rapid growth and sudden rise in energy prices may be just what Florida needs. For years Floridians have struggled dealing with all the negatives that comes with developing along the coast and wetlands. Rapid growth has resulted in many Florida residents advocating slow growth policies. Representatives promoting slow growth ideals have been elected to local governments. Higher energy prices may have the effect of making urban living a desirable alternative to living miles away from the urban service area, ending pressures to build in currently undeveloped areas.


In the 1920’s John Nolan developed a blue print for urban development. Nolan’s design concepts were used in St. Petersburg and Venice. I live in Venice and have come to appreciate Nolan’s design concepts. Since the 1990’s towns like Seaside and Celebration have been developed that are models of New Urban design. Florida’s growth management philosophy in the second half of the 19th century has been to balance development of urban areas while preserving the natural. To that end the State of Florida has purchased more than 5 million acres for preservation.

Limiting the footprint of development will have the desired effect of preserving the natural Florida that has caused so many to refer to Florida as paradise. The undesired effect will be the escalation of land values in the urban areas. Unless the estimates of population growth are drastically revised we will see 8 million people move to the Sunshine Sate over the next 20 years!


I can’t begin to predict when the growth rate will ramp up again, but even with high energy costs Florida tourism is still brisk. Many experts are chalking it up to “stay-cationing” and foreigners taking cheap vacations. I think there is an additional component. People at or nearing retirement are visiting to find the area that most appeals to them for retirement. Recent residential property sales from Sarasota to Cape Coral seem to show that many are finding southwest Florida stills fits the bill of “Paradise Found”.

[runswithscissors]

"Recent residential property sales from Sarasota to Cape Coral seem to show that many are finding southwest Florida stills fits the bill of “Paradise Found

I live in Venice and have come to appreciate Nolan’s design concepts. Since the 1990’s towns like Seaside and Celebration have been developed that are models of New Urban design.

Higher energy prices may have the effect of making urban living a desirable alternative to living miles away from the urban service area, ending pressures to build in currently undeveloped areas."


I love realtors they always see the glass half full and find a way to try and "motivate" people to buy. Just like a year ago, OH we're at bottom, hurry up before you miss the boat lol.

And it's a little late to look for limiting the footprint of development, don't cha think? Not as IF any politician would agree to do that anyway....

[TriMT7]

Slower growth may be a very good thing. I don't think the state will ever stop growing, but we need a "pause" to "catch up" to where we need to be infrastructure and support wise.

The current economic and housing downturn is needed, so that Florida can come back stronger. Like a hangover after getting drunk.

[compelled to reply]

Originally Posted by TriMT7

The current economic and housing downturn is needed, so that Florida can come back stronger. Like a hangover after getting drunk.

Growth in Florida was definitely was definitely handled in a drunken way for a few years!

[runswithscissors]

Originally Posted by TriMT7

. Like a hangover after getting drunk.

Yeah, I saw President Bush say that on MSNBC too. What he failed to mention was he could have stopped it. He and his brother...Like Cramer pointed out...But considering....

And who said a person's past isn't a reflection of all the decisions they make (or don't make) forever? HRMPH

[dbay]

Look, its real simple, IF you don,t fix the property tax problem you will not see the growth nessasary for Florida,s economy.Retirees will not relocate to a tax hell, Which is
why, everybody is talking North or South Carolina...Fix the problem, and they will come.
I love central coastal Florida, beautiful places to retire...I can't ( I won,t get stuck, with
a huge tax bill to live there!)

[JimMe]

Originally Posted by dbay

Look, its real simple, IF you don,t fix the property tax problem you will not see the growth nessasary for Florida,s economy.Retirees will not relocate to a tax hell, Which is
why, everybody is talking North or South Carolina...Fix the problem, and they will come.
I love central coastal Florida, beautiful places to retire...I can't ( I won,t get stuck, with
a huge tax bill to live there!)

I'd like to know what you consider "tax hell." I live in Maine. We own a 10-year old split foyer 3BR, 2B and 1500sf. It is assessed for tax purposes at 162,000.00. Our tax bill is $2800 after the homestead and other deductions. How would that compare to a similar property in, say, Vero Beach?

[TANaples]

Originally Posted by dbay

Look, its real simple, IF you don,t fix the property tax problem you will not see the growth nessasary for Florida,s economy.Retirees will not relocate to a tax hell, Which is
why, everybody is talking North or South Carolina...Fix the problem, and they will come.
I love central coastal Florida, beautiful places to retire...I can't ( I won,t get stuck, with
a huge tax bill to live there!)

I know a number of people, not just retirees, who moved to NW Pa. My daughter's SO parents, semi retired, sold there home on LI last year for $600,000 and moved to Pa. where they built their own home at substantially less than they sold for. Several of the people I used to work with, not retired, also moved there including a woman whose husband was a new MD and opened a practice there. One of my daughter's friends from HS moved there right after she got married in the late 90s. Of course, for all these people cold weather was not a factor. Cost of living was.

Yes, I know people from NY who also moved to North Carolina (retirees)and also to New Mexico (retirees) and Arizona (not retired).

Honestly, I only know one person who has moved to Florida. He is in his 30s and moved to Tampa for an exceptional job offer (full professorship). He came for the job, not necessarily the state. He said he will give it a year and see how he likes it.

[FLBob]

Originally Posted by JimMe

I'd like to know what you consider "tax hell." I live in Maine. We own a 10-year old split foyer 3BR, 2B and 1500sf. It is assessed for tax purposes at 162,000.00. Our tax bill is $2800 after the homestead and other deductions. How would that compare to a similar property in, say, Vero Beach?

Florida property tax is figured on a millage rate. Typical millage is about 18 mils so property tax on 162 k *.018 = 2916 without homestead or $2400 with homestead.

[TriMT7]

Originally Posted by dbay

Look, its real simple, IF you don,t fix the property tax problem you will not see the growth nessasary for Florida,s economy.Retirees will not relocate to a tax hell, Which is
why, everybody is talking North or South Carolina...Fix the problem, and they will come.
I love central coastal Florida, beautiful places to retire...I can't ( I won,t get stuck, with
a huge tax bill to live there!)

What IS the tax rate in North Carolina vs. Florida?