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Old 06-05-2008, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,047 posts, read 7,696,371 times
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Default Foreclosures reach milestone...1 million in 1st quarter

More than a million homes in foreclosure in latest report - Jun. 5, 2008

Sigh...likely fodder for for more government intervention. Just prolongs the pain and the inevitable market re-alignments.

Would be nicer if young singles or young couples could just get these houses for 30 cents on the dollar and restore the neighborhoods quicker rather than letting the houses literally fall apart, but then again that would be too easy, wouldn't it?

Oh well, I guess a free market is too much to ask for those with their panties in a bunch about "comps".
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,490 posts, read 10,396,266 times
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I guess my definition of a free market is quite different from yours.

You want the banks to sell their foreclosures for 30 cents on the dollar when they can get 75-80 cents on the dollar right now?
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Broward County
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things are only going to get worse....especially in Florida. Guaranteed.
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,047 posts, read 7,696,371 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Peterson View Post
I guess my definition of a free market is quite different from yours.

You want the banks to sell their foreclosures for 30 cents on the dollar when they can get 75-80 cents on the dollar right now?
They can get 75 to 80 cents on the dollar? Maybe that's why the sheer number of REO properties is through the roof. Oh, and places like Ft. Myers and Sacramento cannot unload properties at auction for even 50% off.

Mr. Troll (er, Toll) is suggesting the gubmint offer MORE tax benefits to homeowners only. Interesting that a supposed leader in the free market is asking the government for help. I'm also shocked that supposedly the existing subsidies are still leaving homeowners broke. Then the absurd suggestion that the gubmint offer a 10% "gift" to new homebuyers in a $300B bill up for suggestion (the Barney Frank bill).

Actually, the article you saw showing 75-80%, was that related to the $1.7 trillion loss in phoney home equity "wealth" since 2002?

Household net worth drops by $1.7 trillion - Jun. 5, 2008
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:49 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,490 posts, read 10,396,266 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
They can get 75 to 80 cents on the dollar? Maybe that's why the sheer number of REO properties is through the roof. Oh, and places like Ft. Myers and Sacramento cannot unload properties at auction for even 50% off.

Mr. Troll (er, Toll) is suggesting the gubmint offer MORE tax benefits to homeowners only. Interesting that a supposed leader in the free market is asking the government for help. I'm also shocked that supposedly the existing subsidies are still leaving homeowners broke. Then the absurd suggestion that the gubmint offer a 10% "gift" to new homebuyers in a $300B bill up for suggestion (the Barney Frank bill).

Actually, the article you saw showing 75-80%, was that related to the $1.7 trillion loss in phoney home equity "wealth" since 2002?

Household net worth drops by $1.7 trillion - Jun. 5, 2008
I wasn't going off an article. I was going off what foeclosures are selling for quickly in my area.
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,490 posts, read 10,396,266 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heydade View Post
things are only going to get worse....especially in Florida. Guaranteed.
You can not compare what is going on in Miami to all parts of the state.
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Old 06-05-2008, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Peterson View Post
I wasn't going off an article. I was going off what foeclosures are selling for quickly in my area.
That's fine. Here in Raleigh, things are looking pretty ok for now in terms of prices. What locals don't realize is that inventory is up BIG TIME (30% YoY), and jumped by nearly 5% in one week alone.

Price is a latent figure to inventory. How's inventory doing YoY in your area?
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Old 06-05-2008, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,490 posts, read 10,396,266 times
Reputation: 5397
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
That's fine. Here in Raleigh, things are looking pretty ok for now in terms of prices. What locals don't realize is that inventory is up BIG TIME (30% YoY), and jumped by nearly 5% in one week alone.

Price is a latent figure to inventory. How's inventory doing YoY in your area?
Inventory is down 13% since the beginning of the year.
Inventory reached it peak about Oct or Nov last year and styed at that level a few months.
YoY it is down about 6-7%
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Old 06-05-2008, 12:58 PM
 
8,991 posts, read 17,569,600 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
That's fine. Here in Raleigh, things are looking pretty ok for now in terms of prices. What locals don't realize is that inventory is up BIG TIME (30% YoY), and jumped by nearly 5% in one week alone.

Price is a latent figure to inventory. How's inventory doing YoY in your area?
In my area of Raleigh in my price range ($140K - $165K) there is Zero inventory. I don't see houses going for 30 cents on the dollar in my neighborhood anytime soon. Even the one foreclosure we had this year sold at full market price and kept in line with recent comps. Not a steal by any means. The homes in my development are already pretty affordable for young couples so I found it a great place to buy. I can't speak for the more expensive neighborhoods in the area but then again I also don't pay attention to price reductions on the Jaguar lot either since I am in the market for a Toyota.

FWIW, if houses ever did reach the point of going for 30 cents on the dollar here do you really think they would just sit around on the open market waiting for a young couple to come along buy them? A more likely scenario is an old rich investor would swoop in and purchase these discounted houses long before that young couple ever showed up to make their offer. It would be nice if the market worked that way and everybody got a deal, but it sounds more like wishful thinking to me.
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Old 06-05-2008, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,047 posts, read 7,696,371 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy View Post
In my area of Raleigh in my price range ($140K - $165K) there is Zero inventory. I don't see houses going for 30 cents on the dollar in my neighborhood anytime soon. Even the one foreclosure we had this year sold at full market price and kept in line with recent comps. Not a steal by any means. The homes in my development are already pretty affordable for young couples so I found it a great place to buy. I can't speak for the more expensive neighborhoods in the area but then again I also don't pay attention to price reductions on the Jaguar lot either since I am in the market for a Toyota.

FWIW, if houses ever did reach the point of going for 30 cents on the dollar here do you really think they would just sit around on the open market waiting for a young couple to come along buy them? A more likely scenario is an old rich investor would swoop in and purchase these discounted houses long before that young couple ever showed up to make their offer. It would be nice if the market worked that way and everybody got a deal, but it sounds more like wishful thinking to me.
Right. I wasn't suggesting that prices would reach 30 cents on the dollar uniformly throughout the counry. I do anticipate with the 12K houses available in the triangle, however, that 60-80 cents on the dollar (compred to today's "comps") is probably in the cards. It'll take time for the latent effect of dwindled transplant "equity refugee" money to dry up. Coupled with increasing interest rates and higher utility bills and a reduction in RTP workforce as a latent effect on the shrinking of the finance and services sector, just about everyone will be downsizing. So, what I'm thinking is that 60 cents on the dollar for the Holly Springs/F-V/Cary/NW Raleigh McMansions as well as overpriced Glenwood South/ITB inventory and the depressed SE Raleigh/Clayton/Garner area, and 80 cents on the dollar for lower priced, high value homes in the N. Raleigh/Apex/Cary area. I'm picturing that you're up by Millbrook/Six Forks/Falls, around where I'm at. I would imagine you're in better shape than most.

The figures about the triangle area do not lie. There are going to be pockets of less hit areas than most, but the 30% increase is not concentrated in SE Raleigh like some would like to believe. The inventory rise is spread out.

Also, keep in mind this is in nominal values. Since consumer prices are rising substantially, the real inflation adjusted drop will be much, much more severe. You could see up to 90 (yes that's 9-0) percent drop in REAL terms, adjusted for CPI in certain parts of CA/FL.
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