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Demography favors Democrats, as the influence of Latinos and millennials grows. Geography favors the GOP, as the fastest-growing states are solid red. A look at America’s political horizon.
In the crushing wave that flattened much of the Democratic Party last month, two left-leaning states survived not only intact but in some ways bluer than before. New York and California, long-time rivals for supremacy, may both have seen better days; but for Democrats, at least, the prospects there seem better than ever.
That these two states became such outliers from the rest of the United States reflects both changing economics and demographics. Over the past decade, New York and California underperformed in terms of job creation across a broad array of industries. Although still great repositories of wealth, their dominant metropolitan areas increasingly bifurcated between the affluent and poor. The middle class continues to ebb away for more opportune climes.
I think the author is right, really.
I think the geography is the best for the moment, and GOP has many advantages on the short term and maybe medium term.
In the long term Democrats are advantaged by demography.If GOP doesn't become more open-minded (gays, immigration, other races) Democrats will lead and crush GOP for many decades.
1.) Latinos are generally more conservative as a whole. President Bush actually won the Hispanic vote in Texas, and came close to winning it in 2004. The issues that Latinos care most about--traditional family values, the sanctity of human life, entrepeneurship--are all GOP agenda items. The problem is that the GOP has allowed the rancor of the anti-immigration crowd to alienate even traditionally conservative Hispanics. So this one's easy: stop sounding racist and you start winning the Hispanic vote. But in no way are Hispanics a liberal voting bloc like Jews and blacks.
2.) Long-term demographics favor religious conservatives. The kitschy liberal San Francisco couple isn't having kids, while the church-goers in the suburbs are having 3, 4, and even 5 kids. And it's hard to analyze the youth vote, because as people grow up they almost always grow more, not less, conservative. Young people voting Democrat today may not vote that way in ten years. Having a family can change your views pretty quickly.
Nevertheless, it is true that young people are more liberal at this point in their lives than previous generations. If that holds true for the next generation, then you're right: social conservatism is dead as a political platform and our politics will probably continue to look more and more like Europe's.
1.) Latinos are generally more conservative as a whole.
They may have been true, but that did not stop them from voting 65 and 75% democrat in most states
Quote:
President Bush actually won the Hispanic vote in Texas, and came close to winning it in 2004.
Bush was fairly a fairly popular governor, and he actively wooed the latinos with all sorts of promises. They did not vote for bush because they were stalwart conservatives,,, they voted for him because
1 They knew him (or at least they thought they did)
2. He was their governor (hometown advantage)
3. He promised them the world (but did not pay up)
They may have been true, but that did not stop them from voting 65 and 75% democrat in most states
Bush was fairly a fairly popular governor, and he actively wooed the latinos with all sorts of promises. They did not vote for bush because they were stalwart conservatives,,, they voted for him because
1 They knew him (or at least they thought they did)
2. He was their governor (hometown advantage)
3. He promised them the world (but did not pay up)
Latinos are conservative, everybody know that.But Republicans have been stupid and sounded racists, it's pretty normal for them to vote Democrat !
Republicans must attract them if they want a political future...Some good steps have been realised in November :
-2 hispanic republicans elected in heavily hispanic districts in South Texas (pretty incredible,I didn't think they could..)
-The first hispanic governor in Nevada (Brian Sandoval) is a republican, not a democrat, certainly a good thing for the GOP brand
-The first latina governor in the USA in New Mexico (Susana Martinez)
-Marco Rubio, republican from Florida, obtained 55% of the hispanic vote in a three-way race, and he could become the first latino president of the USA, many bet on him.
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneNative
Nevertheless, it is true that young people are more liberal at this point in their lives than previous generations. If that holds true for the next generation, then you're right: social conservatism is dead as a political platform and our politics will probably continue to look more and more like Europe's.
Indeed the social conservative platform that seemed to get so much limelight in the 2004 election will be all but dead within a generation. Adolescents growing up now in many diverse communities all over the USA will highly unlikely be concerned about gay marriage in their 30's in the 2020's. By then the US will be a much more diverse ethnic melting pot as it already is compared to 20 years ago. Don't Ask Don't Tell was recently repealed and John McCain lost again, he'll be on the wrong side of history looking back. If the GOP would evolve past these antiquated hurdles I would be onboard with much of their fiscal philosophies. Time will tell.
Latinos are conservative, everybody know that.But Republicans have been stupid and sounded racists, it's pretty normal for them to vote Democrat !
And as long as that keeps on going, Latinos are going to keep voting for the Democrats. There are some Latino groups who can see past that and vote for the Republicans (most notably, Cubans) but for the most part, the vast majority of Latino people I know, despite their pretty conservative stances (especially on gay marriage, abortion, etc.), are becoming more and more staunch Democrats.
Adjoin that with the fact that the bulk majority of Latinos in the United States ARE in the millennial generation, then you have a huge nightmare for many Republican planners.
If you keep up with American media nowadays, it would seem that many Republicans think that almost every single problem we have in the United States stems from illegal immigration. Most critics of illegal immigration know the difference between a legal and illegal and make that known, but those that don't resonate to the Latino community.
However, I will say that there is a generation gap between those who were born to immigrant parents/those who are immigrants to those who's family has been here for a few generation. Those that have been here longer don't have the same fears as the 1st/2nd generation. That goes for every single ethnic group as well.
And as long as that keeps on going, Latinos are going to keep voting for the Democrats. There are some Latino groups who can see past that and vote for the Republicans (most notably, Cubans) but for the most part, the vast majority of Latino people I know, despite their pretty conservative stances (especially on gay marriage, abortion, etc.), are becoming more and more staunch Democrats.
Adjoin that with the fact that the bulk majority of Latinos in the United States ARE in the millennial generation, then you have a huge nightmare for many Republican planners.
If you keep up with American media nowadays, it would seem that many Republicans think that almost every single problem we have in the United States stems from illegal immigration. Most critics of illegal immigration know the difference between a legal and illegal and make that known, but those that don't resonate to the Latino community.
However, I will say that there is a generation gap between those who were born to immigrant parents/those who are immigrants to those who's family has been here for a few generation. Those that have been here longer don't have the same fears as the 1st/2nd generation. That goes for every single ethnic group as well.
Proposals to support the legal immigration (increase the legal immigration, to fast the family reunification because some people must wait several years compared to illegals) would be a good step for Republicans I think. "We support the legal immigrants, look at what we did about it"
But I said it before, they're better now about latinos (hispanic governors, senators and representants), but they won't progress all of a sudden, several years will be necessary.
Proposals to support the legal immigration (increase the legal immigration, to fast the family reunification because some people must wait several years compared to illegals) would be a good step for Republicans I think. "We support the legal immigrants, look at what we did about it"
But I said it before, they're better now about latinos (hispanic governors, senators and representants), but they won't progress all of a sudden, several years will be necessary.
But then the Republicans are going to be losing their base: Working class White Americans. As California's gubernatorial election has shown, you can't, on one hand, be "Hispandering" for voters without having some blow back effect on the traditional base of the party. Who will represent their interests, at that point, many White Americans will believe.
There has been so much animosity toward illegal immigration and Latinos from Republican politicians for the past 20 years (pretty much the generation I grew up in) that it seems the battle lines are set in the Western states. Unlike the Blacks in the South where they were growing at roughly the same rates (or in some cases, just a bit higher) as Whites, its going to be a disaster in the West.
However, I think the article missed an important point: both Democrats and Republicans have to start treating Latinos (and at some point, Asians too we become a voter bloc that matters) like fellow Americans instead of either unwanted guests or babies that need guidance. As the generation that grew up here become repeat voters, both sides have to start being in-tune with that fact.
Proposals to support the legal immigration (increase the legal immigration, to fast the family reunification because some people must wait several years compared to illegals) would be a good step for Republicans I think. "We support the legal immigrants, look at what we did about it"
But I said it before, they're better now about latinos (hispanic governors, senators and representants), but they won't progress all of a sudden, several years will be necessary.
that would kill the republicans...
very few support increasing the legal immigration..
do a little research to see how many of the green cards go to mexicans.
Mexicans account for more than 30% of all green cards issued (three times more than all the rest of latin america combined.
altogether latin americans get more than 40% of all green cards.
so it is not like they are not getting as much as everyone else,, they are getting more.
But then the Republicans are going to be losing their base: Working class White Americans. As California's gubernatorial election has shown, you can't, on one hand, be "Hispandering" for voters without having some blow back effect on the traditional base of the party. Who will represent their interests, at that point, many White Americans will believe.
There has been so much animosity toward illegal immigration and Latinos from Republican politicians for the past 20 years (pretty much the generation I grew up in) that it seems the battle lines are set in the Western states. Unlike the Blacks in the South where they were growing at roughly the same rates (or in some cases, just a bit higher) as Whites, its going to be a disaster in the West.
However, I think the article missed an important point: both Democrats and Republicans have to start treating Latinos (and at some point, Asians too we become a voter bloc that matters) like fellow Americans instead of either unwanted guests or babies that need guidance. As the generation that grew up here become repeat voters, both sides have to start being in-tune with that fact.
You're right, it's not an easy equation...Illegal immigration is a poison for republicans, they can't support it, too dangerous.But I know 3rd generation latinos aren't so pro-illegals, more like whites in fact.
Maybe republicans should target Asians first ? They're easier to attract because family-centric and pro-business, and Asians growth is very strong in some places like Nevada,Texas,Washington, Virginia, North Carolina, they can be an asset.
Maybe they should target black immigrants too ? They're not like African Americans, so maybe they can be more politically open ?
Democrats can be optimistic I think, the trends are good for them.The weak point : the economy.Democrats should be more pro-business (remember the Clinton years), and Obama understood apparently (trade deal with South Korea, he invited CEOs, his fiscal commission say the corporate tax should be lower because 35% is too much, 23% is advised).
The future will be very interesting in the US politically ! In European countries or Japan it's not hard to predict : a much older population, advantage to the right wing politicians, and shrinking youth (in Germany young voters are ignored, but retired are massively targeted )
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