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I don't think there is much chance that 20 years from now it will be growing like it is or has been. I think climate change and other issues are going to result in some radical changes in where people live by 2038.
I don't think there is much chance that 20 years from now it will be growing like it is or has been. I think climate change and other issues are going to result in some radical changes in where people live by 2038.
Austin (and Texas in general) will actually benefit from the climate change process, the way it's been going.
...and as housing costs continue to climb there, expect the metro to continue sprawling, just like those examples (and many others).
Central Austin, which encompasses more than just the traditional Downtown, lags behind Central Dallas & Houston in terms or urban infrastructure, relaxed zoning (e.g. allowing more mixed-use & higher density), and various transit options beyond cycling or driving.
Austin (and Texas in general) will actually benefit from the climate change process, the way it's been going.
How so? Our summers are predicted to get even hotter and if we fail to be more proactive towards sustaining our water supply, then we're screwed. And Houston needs to think twice about approving developments in flood plains.
How so? Our summers are predicted to get even hotter and if we fail to be more proactive towards sustaining our water supply, then we're screwed.
Don't mind those models, summers in Texas have actually been getting wetter compared to the past, on average. The UHI process artificially inflates temperature increases. Those models also aren't good at modeling the convective summer storms compared to larger scale cold front storms.
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And Houston needs to think twice about approving developments in flood plains.
It can do its part, but areas outside city limits will have to follow suit.
It will look like it's neighbor, San Antonio. Big, sprawled, low density, low amenities, meager if any mass transit. Austin is a "new" sunbelt city and they are heading in the same direction as their peers-Jacksonville, Columbus, Indy, etc.
Without any investment in public transit, it'll be a mini Los Angeles. Not enough people moving to Austin are the urbanite type that will live in downtown, so the suburbs will keep growing. As the suburbs grow, the traffic will just push it close to an LA-style traffic mess. As LA taught the world, you can't just build freeways and add lanes to cure traffic problems. Austin's rapid growth in an area with relatively few freeways and a small urban core spells disaster. I don't see it being the "cool" place to move to in 20 years. It'll just be a bunch of white people living the suburban lifestyle while they think they live in a "cool" city but they're actually just like any suburbanite in the country because the city will become so played out.
Now, if Texas does eventually flip blue, a Democratic governor could turn all this around. With the realization that Austin is a hotspot for educated, young transplants, a Democrat would properly fund public transit in the city. Austin + amazing public transit = a long-term success story.
Without any investment in public transit, it'll be a mini Los Angeles. Not enough people moving to Austin are the urbanite type that will live in downtown, so the suburbs will keep growing. As the suburbs grow, the traffic will just push it close to an LA-style traffic mess. As LA taught the world, you can't just build freeways and add lanes to cure traffic problems. Austin's rapid growth in an area with relatively few freeways and a small urban core spells disaster. I don't see it being the "cool" place to move to in 20 years. It'll just be a bunch of white people living the suburban lifestyle while they think they live in a "cool" city but they're actually just like any suburbanite in the country because the city will become so played out.
Now, if Texas does eventually flip blue, a Democratic governor could turn all this around. With the realization that Austin is a hotspot for educated, young transplants, a Democrat would properly fund public transit in the city. Austin + amazing public transit = a long-term success story.
From what I know about Austin, residents don't want mass transit. I don't see how "turning blue" changes any of this. It's a sunbelt city you move to in order to put more space between you and other people, have the bigger house with a yard, etc. Los Angeles pioneered freeways when no one else was doing them, Measure M's passage shows the residents want world class mass transit again, which Los Angeles also pioneered in the 1910's and 20's.
To me, Austin's all of sudden "destination city" status in recent years says more about how lacking the big metros are in Texas than anything else.
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