What "season" is it in your city currently in terms of the vibe/mood? (middle-class, transplants)
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No, we're not talking about the weather or the like, but actually, the phase that your city/town is currently going through. Keep in mind that these processes take many decades, and perhaps even centuries to cycle through by the analogy of a certain time of year. Basically, every city when it is first established reaches "early spring" at a certain threshold as it begins to become a draw through a localized region, then matures to the summer phases as it becomes nationally/globally important before all too often getting over its head too much and starting to decline in the autumn phases. Some cities skip the winter phase and return to a spring phase, while others continue to experience even worse problems and bottom out at a winter phase, often seen as a poster child of urban blight/decay. For example, NYC was in its "winter" phase in the 1970s and Washington, DC was there in the 1980s. Cities like Phoenix meanwhile have never had a "winter" phase to begin with and is in the "early summer" phase currently IMO. With that said, here are the descriptors of these "seasons" describing the nature of a city:
Early spring: The city is characterized by considerable blight present, but some green shoots towards a better future are certainly evident, such as a revitalization of the nicest neighborhoods, a slight drop in crime, and/or a stop in a decline. It can be seen as a good buyer's opportunity in terms of investment and/or seeing a new city emerge, but there's always the risk that bad management could plunge the city back into winter again. If the area is rural or micropolitan, it signifies items like midsized companies starting to move in and transplants from overpriced late summer/early autumn cities seeking a quieter lifestyle.
Late spring: By now, the worst of the city's problems are clearly behind itself and the redevelopment is starting to spread beyond the original gentrified plans, but there is still considerable progress to be made, from fixing up some of the less-attractive neighborhoods, attracting top companies and organizations, and continuing to reduce problems like crime and city services. Ambitious proposals are usually laid out at this stage to really try to grab attention, and this is usually when the artists start to make their presence known and often a unique pop culture flourishes here.
Early summer: At this point, the city has certainly "made it" in terms of being a place to live again, and receives a high national profile. The redevelopment and gentrification starts to move into former "bad" neighborhoods, and other attributes like major companies and events start to move in. The "choice" neighborhoods go upscale and start to price people out into the next ring of developing neighborhoods. It's still "rough around the edges" though. Cities that were never big to begin with become major at this point, including new features like a major league team, nationally-renowned cultural institutions, and an airport that flies to numerous destinations nationally.
Late summer: At this point, the redeveloping city has now reached its peak in terms of potential, in terms of the greatest extent of gentrification, relevance in the national/global stage, and leadership. Crime often is at historical lows and services are generally efficient, while land values force more of the working-middle class towards the last neighborhoods to gentrify, while the desirable core continues to grow more upscale, attracting the wealthy readily.
Early autumn: The city still is pretty vibrant overall, but a noticeable rise in problems start to taint its perception, such as a rise in crime and emergence of a few pockets of blight, drop in services/funding, or relocation of businesses out of the city. It may also be at the point where being too expensive scares away most outsiders from considering, so it causes its talent pool to diminish to a more narrowly focused group such as the wealthy or the poor.
Late autumn: At this point, flight/ghettofication starts to become more widespread among the wealthy/middle class across wider swaths of the city, and the problems of early autumn become more severe, such as major corporations fleeing the city, the loss of cultural institutions like a major league team, and a drastic cutback in services where problems like rough roads, extreme transit delays, and more violent crimes become commonplace.
Winter: The city now is seen as a laughingstock and unattractive for many, save for a few neighborhoods here and there (usually concentrated in a narrow swath), but even those are underperforming compared a typical city in a different seasonal phase. Widespread ghettofication, blight, crime, abandoned/vacant buildings/lots, a lack of vibrancy, trash, a corrupt government, and a fading of relevance are typical of these cities. The city punches well below its weight on many fronts, including business opportunities, cultural events, transit, and public education.
Last edited by Borntoolate85; 01-31-2019 at 06:12 AM..
Oklahoma City - Late winter/early spring. The dysfunctional far-right government of the state of Oklahoma as well as geographical disadvantages will prevent the city from ever making it to true spring.
Oklahoma City - Late winter/early spring. The dysfunctional far-right government of the state of Oklahoma as well as geographical disadvantages will prevent the city from ever making it to true spring.
I'd actually place OKC in "late spring" currently. It never really experienced an autumn like many sunbelt cities, and is just starting to get some national appreciation and even has things like a major league team, attracting some decent-sized corporations, and is experiencing pretty decent growth with double-digit gains MSA and citywise (just like what happens in the spring), but it isn't quite there yet to move into summer status thanks to the relative conservatism, lack of renowned cultural institutions and events, and a true "high society" culture.
Overall, I'd say early autumn, minus the expensive part. It's important to keep in mind that prices can fall as the area becomes less and less desirable.
Reno is in late spring, I'd say. Our raw population has been growing pretty fast for ages, but I get the impression it was mostly middle-class and affluent people moving into the fringe suburban developments for a break from the California cost of living and rarely venturing into the real city, and working-class small-town people and Mexican immigrants moving into the city. Much of the inner city is still visibly in mediocre shape, though due more to institutional neglect than population decline.
Only recently have major tech companies started to come in, with the accompanying gentrification of core neighborhoods. South of downtown (Midtown) has been pushed as a "hot" district, somewhat artificially, for maybe the past decade, and is seeing a lot of hip new businesses and apartments. East and west of downtown are a little further behind, with more blight remaining, but also seeing definite visual improvements. The southeast side of town is likely the furthest off, since it's mostly working-class Latino families and too SFH-dominant and far from downtown to have that urban cachet.
I'd actually place OKC in "late spring" currently. It never really experienced an autumn like many sunbelt cities, and is just starting to get some national appreciation and even has things like a major league team, attracting some decent-sized corporations, and is experiencing pretty decent growth with double-digit gains MSA and citywise (just like what happens in the spring), but it isn't quite there yet to move into summer status thanks to the relative conservatism, lack of renowned cultural institutions and events, and a true "high society" culture.
Good points here. I think the city still does have some "late winter" attributes such as an enduring relatively poor national perception. I think the city would have to experience a significant boom bringing in transplants from around the country for that to really change and given the city's conservatism and image problem, I don't see that happening. I think proximity to Dallas/Ft Worth is another huge obstacle that will prevent OKC from ever reaching its potential. OKC does and will always struggle to snatch corporate relocations with Dallas so close.
OKC always seems to be one of those places that feels like it's just a few years away from taking off yet it never actually does. To be fair though, most of the booming cities right now are at least a tier higher. Metro areas in the 1 million population range don't seem to be doing as well right now.
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