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Would be interesting if NC continued this post-2020 trend of outgrowing Georgia. That would reverse several decades of Georgia growing (ever so slightly) faster.
Would be interesting if NC continued this post-2020 trend of outgrowing Georgia.
The Census has been saying that NC has outgrown GA since 2017, and we saw how that turned out during the 2020 Census. GA actually outgrew NC by a decent margin. It will be very interesting to see the 2030 numbers.
Seems like PA is widening its lead over IL. Without seeing the numbers I am going to guess IL is in moderate population decline while PA is in very slow population decline, correct?
To the contrary Illinois' population loss is probably accelerating while Pennsylvania's is probably bottoming out. This is especially true given the solid growth in Philly's collar counties that balances out rural losses. In Illinois Chicago and its suburbs are hemorrhaging losses so they aren't able to balance out the even more dramatic losses downstate.
To the contrary Illinois' population loss is probably accelerating while Pennsylvania's is probably bottoming out. This is especially true given the solid growth in Philly's collar counties that balances out rural losses. In Illinois Chicago and its suburbs are hemorrhaging losses so they aren't able to balance out the even more dramatic losses downstate.
What's interesting is that Pennsylvania's out-migration is lower on a per capita basis than most other larger Northeast/Midwest states, including Illinois.
I attribute that to having the largest, most affordable urban area in the Northeast Corridor (as you alluded to), and that's likely to continue to help keep it afloat.
Most of Pennsylvania' population loss really comes from natural decrease--more deaths than births, by a lot. Only Florida has a larger natural decrease (no surprise there).
Illinois' relatively large loss is clearly much more driven by out-migration, which seems to be perennially attributed to a challenging fiscal environment. That can be very difficult to solve, especially given how long it's been going on.
Agreed. I was just in New York the other week. That place is bursting at the seams. All this means is once again come 2030 Census will be correcting states population totals by 500k+.
5% margin of error for a state with 20,000,000 people is a 1 million person correction. I'd definitely take these with a tablespoon full of salt. At least for those states with negative growth showing.
Didn't the census basically erase all those gains in a post survey? New Jersey, Maryland and Alabama would be better examples to use. Those three were also underestimated by 100k+, and while all three are within the margin of error, MD and AL still lean towards a possible undercount, while NJ looks on point.
Granted, there's a lot of obvious misses with the census and estimates, particularly with hard to reach minorities. I was reading a Reuters child labor scandal article earlier and mentioned a bunch of undocumented Hispanic people living in a house south of Greenville, Alabama (one family had moved to Alabama four years ago). The company involved was picking people up to and from work via vans. According to the census, that county only had 260 Hispanic people.
The Washington vs Arizona count is interesting. Both are growing at a similar rate, with WA barely topping Arizona in population. Both are similar in one way as in just a few large cities. WA With Seattle/Tacoma, and Spokane. AZ with Phoenix and Tucson. The growth is different however. WA is tech driven, AZ is retirement driven. Not to say AZ is not a tech friendly area, but this seems to be a critical difference.
The Washington vs Arizona count is interesting. Both are growing at a similar rate, with WA barely topping Arizona in population. Both are similar in one way as in just a few large cities. WA With Seattle/Tacoma, and Spokane. AZ with Phoenix and Tucson. The growth is different however. WA is tech driven, AZ is retirement driven. Not to say AZ is not a tech friendly area, but this seems to be a critical difference.
Arizona grew twice as fast at 94,320 vs. 45,041 based on the Census numbers. (Though WA's 4/1/22 estimated change per the State OMB was about 97,000.)
Washington had a big edge in international migration, 37,512 to 22,219. WA was actually #8 among states, and a small edge in births/deaths, but the real difference was slight domestic outmigration in WA vs. big in-migration for AZ. I suspect a big chunk of that was Covid-related and WFH related, which is why it's all kind of a snapshot of the past (video segment of the past?) vs. a clue going forward.
Yes, population stats may be out of whack due to covid and other issues. Generally both States are growing and we may not know the full story until census 2030. That said the estimations are favoring WA over AZ. This definitely could change by 2030.
A margin of error of 5% is basically useless. The country grew by like 6.7% from 2010-2020 for example. (Especially since the same states that a shrinking the 2019 estimates hugely underestimated)
I have serious doubts Massachusetts did a total Uturn for example, from growing 7.4% on 2010-2020 to losing population 2 years in a row.
Especially since it says CT, VT, NH and ME are all growing.
There's not a single source that says its gaining people- Movers, census,, school district head counts. Its definitely losing people.
CT NH VT and ME are not like Massachusetts... furthermore yo believe they're right about 4/5 other nearby states but just wrong about Massachusetts 2 years in a row? Our governor-elect and mayo have both implied theyre worried about losing out to sates like Texas North Carolina, California..
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