2022 Population Estimates (transplants, apartments, living)
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Illegal immigrants are serverly undercounted in this country, especially with the mass migration coming across the southern border.
Yup, way undercounted. This article talks about the child labor scandal in Alabama. They focus on some shady dealings going on around Greenville, Alabama, mentioning putting up signs advertising jobs in Spanish. Butler County, while a small county of around 19k according to the last census with only 260 Hispanic people, has more Hispanic people than any of its neighboring counties except Covington, which is twice the overall population at around 37k and 654 Hispanic people.
The population is made official every 10 years. Everything else is a guess, but statisticians can form pretty very good estimates.
That is true, but Census is in fact using each decennial count to form their estimates, so theoretically 2021 estimates are the most accurate of the decade.
I'm getting the sense that some posters are being more dismissive than should be about the estimates (I'm surmising because they don't like the results), but they all absolutely do make sense given demographic and migration trends.
I certainly didn't hear much skepticism about Census estimates in the 2010s, when essentially every city, metro and state was showing growth in the estimates.
Unfortunately, we don't get to pick and choose which statistics are valid based on our "feelings."
That is true, but Census is in fact using each decennial count to form their estimates, so theoretically 2021 estimates are the most accurate of the decade.
I'm getting the sense that some posters are being more dismissive than should be about the estimates (I'm surmising because they don't like the results), but they all absolutely do make sense given demographic and migration trends.
I certainly didn't hear much skepticism about Census estimates in the 2010s, when essentially every city, metro and state was showing growth in the estimates.
Unfortunately, we don't get to pick and choose which statistics are valid based on our "feelings."
Could I be because we are 2 years removed from the Census underestimating NYC by 650,000? From 2016-2019 the census erroneously stated NYC was shrinking and people just kind of accepted it. Now the estimates are seeing the same trends in the same places (RI, NY, Illinois) continuing as if the census never happened.
If you see the 2019 estimates as correct, Massachusetts has grown faster than Arizona from 2019-2022, which is obviously incorrect.
In addition it seemed to have a pretty simple answer, immigration reliant places, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, California seem to hit the breaks on growth as the Trump Administration cut immigration in 1/2 by 2018. But then the census came out and made it quite clear, the Census Estimates were quite far off in Domestic migration numbers
In 2010 the estimates missed on Detroit by almost 20%.
Last edited by btownboss4; 12-24-2022 at 08:20 AM..
If you see the 2019 estimates as correct, Massachusetts has grown faster than Arizona from 2019-2022, which is obviously incorrect.
In 2010 the estimates missed on Detroit by almost 20%.
But you're using examples of estimates derived 9 years after a physical decennial count.
2021 is one year removed from a physical decennial count.
Now, I understand there are legitimate complaints about how the 2020 count was carried out, mostly due to political interference, but Census did make a large attempt to account for physical counting errors.
No estimate is going to be perfect and 100% precise, but it's fair to say there's accuracy in the trends.
They were so off it wasnt even funny. My own personal calculations for the US census were way more accurate than the census estimates.
If you truly think DC has less than 700k people still and NYC is shedding hundreds of thousands a year, im not sure what to tell you.
Anybody that thinks DC has the same amount of people as it did in 2015 with the year 2023 a week away has clearly not set foot in DC in going on 8 years. You really can’t add the additional housing DC does annually and believe that. I don’t think people should be upset by census numbers. The focus should be on cranes and new construction. That’s what impacts your daily life.
If the census thinks DC and NYC are the same size as 2015, then so be it. I can name about 4 entire neighborhoods in DC that didn’t even exist in 2015 lol. Again, just focus on cranes and the pace of new high-rise residential buildings with new restaurants coming to the first floor because that’s what matters when we walk out the door. DC will probably deliver more than 100,000 new housing units this decade based on what has already delivered since 2020 and what is under construction or going through permitting. How will the census account for those units? Who knows, but should we all really care?
DC is more vibrant today than I can remember in my entire life and that’s because vibrancy is everywhere now. Downtown DC is currently going through the biggest residential boom in America and hasn’t even scratched the surface of what it will become in the future so let the census say what they want.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 12-24-2022 at 08:41 AM..
But you're using examples of estimates derived 9 years after a physical decennial count.
2021 is one year removed from a physical decennial count.
Now, I understand there are legitimate complaints about how the 2020 count was carried out, mostly due to political interference, but Census did make a large attempt to account for physical counting errors.
No estimate is going to be perfect and 100% precise, but it's fair to say there's accuracy in the trends.
The 2021 estimates are going in the wrong direction for places like NYC DC and Boston. (And obviously most cities). There was a drop in 2020, but by 2021.. most of that was made up and in 2022 cities outpaced the loss.
The census is using the same formula or rate of growth year after year. NYC definitely has more people than it did in 2019, there is no doubt in my mind.
Anybody that thinks DC has the same amount of people as it did in 2015 with the year 2023 a week away has clearly not set foot in DC in going on 8 years. You really can’t add the additional housing DC does annually and believe that. I don’t think people should be upset by census numbers. The focus should be on cranes and new construction. That’s what impacts your daily life.
If the census thinks DC and NYC are the same size as 2015, then so be it. I can name about 4 entire neighborhoods in DC that didn’t even exist in 2015 lol. Again, just focus on cranes and the pace of new high-rise residential buildings with new restaurants coming to the first floor because that’s what matters when we walk out the door. DC will probably deliver more than 100,000 new housing units this decade based on what has already delivered since 2020 and what is under construction or going through permitting. How will the census account for those units? Who knows, but should we all really care?
DC is more vibrant today than I can remember in my entire life and that’s because vibrancy is everywhere now. Downtown DC is currently going through the biggest residential boom in America and hasn’t even scratched the surface of what it will become in the future so let the census say what they want.
I think it is probably difficult for the census to count the most dense cities in America. It’s not easy to quantify density compared to suburban built low density cities in the south. I think cities that have thousands of new construction units annually are especially hard to count unless that new construction is in low density cities.
I can tell you that the census is typically way off for residential permits in DC proper. I don’t know where they pull their numbers, but most years, I can count more units under construction than they report by a count in my head literally. They would be better off getting their numbers from urbanturfdc.com lol…
But you're using examples of estimates derived 9 years after a physical decennial count.
2021 is one year removed from a physical decennial count.
Now, I understand there are legitimate complaints about how the 2020 count was carried out, mostly due to political interference, but Census did make a large attempt to account for physical counting errors.
No estimate is going to be perfect and 100% precise, but it's fair to say there's accuracy in the trends.
I don’t believe there is anything malicious but Domestic migration has always been the toughest thing to get right. That’s why the big domestic losers and winners (NY, NJ, FL, AZ) were the most off from estimate to count. especially in 2020 that was almost all of the population changes it’s probably exaggerated since you don’t have as much immigration/net births to mask it. Although Immigration has rebounded quite nicely and hopefully will continue too.
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