Metro Area 2060 Projections (transportation, housing, best)

[NigerianNightmare]

Really interesting list. If I have some time I’ll iron out the top 10-20. It’s interesting how in some metros suburban counties outgrow other ones. I also think it’s possible that a lot of these counties will add metro areas.

[FL_Expert]

Sarasota doesn’t hit the 1M threshold?

[Nemean]

Originally Posted by FL_Expert

Sarasota doesn’t hit the 1M threshold?

Sarasota's Northport.

From what's gathered so far:

21,131,243 New York
14,330,900 Los Angeles
12,859,554 Dallas
11,857,460 Houston
10,097,097 Chicago
9,549,279 Atlanta
8,956,773 Washington
8,417,310 Miami
8,398,594 Phoenix
7,395,956 Riverside
6,843,384 Philadelphia
5,650,651 San Francisco
5,641,045 Seattle
5,482,207 Boston
4,800,127 Orlando
4,734,051 Minneapolis
4,733,461 Austin
4,701,648 Tampa
4,450,013 Las Vegas
4,368,633 Denver
4,339,437 Charlotte
4,328,242 San Diego
4,176,029 San Antonio
4,141,470 Detroit
3,505,422 Portland
3,385,441 Sacramento
3,245,384 Baltimore
3,182,539 Nashville
3,023,050 St. Louis
2,890,149 Columbus
2,796,695 Indianapolis
2,757,852 Kansas City
2,651,411 Raleigh
2,582,607 Cincinnati
2,536,155 Jacksonville
2,466,565 San Jose
2,171,647 Pittsburgh
2,089,338 Norfolk
1,967,566 Cleveland
1,927,440 Oklahoma City
1,831,074 Salt Lake City
1,735,949 Providence
1,715,188 Richmond
1,647,669 Milwaukee
1,578,230 McAllen
1,549,831 Louisville
1,547,556 Memphis
1,541,413 Cape Coral
1,424,730 Tucson
1,370,706 Fresno
1,363,050 Boise
1,357,548 Bakersfield
1,334,295 Sarasota
1,325,289 Grand Rapids
1,321,317 Charleston, SC
1,311,006 Birmingham
1,296,578 Provo
1,294,737 Hartford
1,255,481 Greenville
1,252,384 Albuquerque
1,246,898 Tulsa
1,230,319 New Orleans
1,222,412 Omaha
1,198,348 El Paso
1,188,577 Lakeland
1,167,400 Honolulu
1,142,714 Colorado Springs
1,131,854 Columbia
1,129,932 Knoxville
1,102,431 Baton Rouge
1,081,272 Worcester
1,077,787 Buffalo
1,074,945 Rochester
1,062,993 Ogden
1,049,098 Bridgeport
1,043,763 Allentown
1,130,673 Stockton
1,025,961 Daytona Beach
1,006,643 Ventura
1,003,337 Fayetteville, AR
967,940 Des Moines
963,740 Greensboro
950,806 Little Rock
947,462 Albany
944,659 Myrtle Beach
933,562 Durham
920,602 Port St. Lucie
910,034 New Haven
886,726 Madison
834,381 Winston-Salem
810,887 Dayton
780,459 Augusta
764,057 Reno
749,938 Palm Bay
733,680 Modesto
729,999 Huntsville
722,251 Killeen
700,703 Naples
612,149 Ocala
578,959 Savannah
424,778 Mobile
416,766 Montgomery

Metros larger now than one on the list as I post: Poughkeepsie, Akron, Springfield MA, Syracuse, Wichita, Toledo, Harrisburg, Spokane, Jackson, Scranton, Chattanooga, Portland ME, Lancaster, Lansing, Youngstown, Fayetteville NC, Lexington, Pensacola, Santa Rosa, Springfield MO, Lafayette, Visalia, Asheville, York, Vallejo, Santa Maria, Salinas, Salem, Reading, Salisbury, Manchester, Fort Wayne, Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Biloxi, Flint, Canton, Anchorage, Peoria, Beaumont, Shreveport, Trenton

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by Bicala

I absolutely agree. California and Arizona have water issues now.

Not now. The drought is over in most of California.

[manitopiaaa]

OK, I give up. I went through each metro that could conceivably be over 1 million and 2060 and my previous post should capture all of those. Unless I missed a pretty egregious one, I count 81 metros (incl. San Juan) at over 1 million in 2060.

Of course, if these numbers panned out and you saw this level of suburban growth, outlying counties would be added to the MSAs over time. So it probably understates the number.

Also the entire county map is public and available online in case you're curious about other metros, or calculate CSAs or pick other years. 'Woods and Poole Interactive Map Tool' on Google should bring it up (not sure if I can post a link to it or not, so playing it safe). I only picked metros I thought could plausibly get to 1 million by 2060. So a lot of those 500k-999k MSAs weren't calculated if they were low growth (say, Poughkeepsie or Toledo MSA).

[Heel82]

I appreciate your hard work, thanks. Very interesting stuff, even if as you say only a piece of the puzzle. Other counties being added in is a great point.

[Bicala]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Not now. The drought is over in most of California.

For the next 40 years? No one knows that. Would be nice, though.

[rnc2mbfl]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

[/list]
Raleigh MSA: 2,651,411

• Wake: 2,156,385

[/list]

I can't imagine a scenario where Johnston Co. isn't a half million by 2060, especially with the infrastructure investment that's currently under construction at the county's doorstep, and because the county is sizable with a large amount of undeveloped area that's convenient to Raleigh. Also, the MSA number is pretty incredible given that we are only talking about 3 total counties. I can see Johnston hitting a growth stride akin to what happened in Collin Co. TX in the 90s and 00s.
Johnston
1990: 81,306
2000: 121,965
2010: 168,878
2020: 215,999
2022: 234,778

[cpomp]

I know these are high level predictions and most of the posters on this forum will be dead in 2060... but a few stood out upon first glance...

Washington DC MSA is expected to grow from 6.3M to nearly 9M in 40 years? Growth in the DC region (like many) has stalled, I don't see the wild momentum from the 90s/00s coming back anytime soon.

I don't think Miami MSA is capable of 8.5M people, there are strict geographical limits to development, climate concerns, and quickly increasing COL.

Houston is in an increasingly frightening hurricane zone, uninhibited growth for 40 years seems unlikely.

And god help Phoenix if that area has 8.4M people, that also seems unlikely due to similar climate/resource concerns.

[atadytic19]

Originally Posted by cpomp

Houston is in an increasingly frightening hurricane zone, uninhibited growth for 40 years seems unlikely.

And god help Phoenix if that area has 8.4M people, that also seems unlikely due to similar climate/resource concerns.

Houston has been in the same spot always and has had uninhibited growth fir what? The last 100 years? It's not like it moved into a hurricane zone. Houston gets a major hurricane about every 10 years, nothing new.

I do agree that resources may be a problem for Phoenix though. Maricopa County is still growing fast, but I don't know if that is sustainable enough to push it to near 8 million people.