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Old 05-11-2023, 08:32 AM
 
4,159 posts, read 2,847,570 times
Reputation: 5516

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemean View Post
Sarasota's Northport.

From what's gathered so far:

21,131,243 New York
14,330,900 Los Angeles
12,859,554 Dallas
11,857,460 Houston
10,097,097 Chicago
9,549,279 Atlanta
8,956,773 Washington
8,417,310 Miami
8,398,594 Phoenix
7,395,956 Riverside
6,843,384 Philadelphia
5,650,651 San Francisco
5,641,045 Seattle
5,482,207 Boston
4,800,127 Orlando
4,734,051 Minneapolis
4,733,461 Austin
4,701,648 Tampa
4,450,013 Las Vegas
4,368,633 Denver
4,339,437 Charlotte
4,328,242 San Diego
4,176,029 San Antonio
4,141,470 Detroit
3,505,422 Portland
3,385,441 Sacramento
3,245,384 Baltimore
3,182,539 Nashville
3,023,050 St. Louis
2,890,149 Columbus
2,796,695 Indianapolis
2,757,852 Kansas City
2,651,411 Raleigh
2,582,607 Cincinnati
2,536,155 Jacksonville
2,466,565 San Jose
2,171,647 Pittsburgh
2,089,338 Norfolk
1,967,566 Cleveland
1,927,440 Oklahoma City
1,831,074 Salt Lake City
1,735,949 Providence
1,715,188 Richmond
1,647,669 Milwaukee
1,578,230 McAllen
1,549,831 Louisville
1,547,556 Memphis
1,541,413 Cape Coral
1,424,730 Tucson
1,370,706 Fresno
Just to piggyback, here are the would be/could be/never was growth rates of the above 50 MSA's from the 2020 census:

Austin: 107.3%
Cape Coral: 102.6%
Las Vegas: 96.4%
Raleigh: 87.5%
McAllen: 81.2%
Orlando: 79.6%
Phoenix: 73.3%
Dallas: 68.4%
Houston: 66.5%
San Antonio: 63.2%

Charlotte: 63.1%
Riverside: 60.8%
Nashville: 60%
Jacksonville: 57.9%
Atlanta: 56.8%
Tampa: 48.1%
Denver: 47.4%
Salt Lake City: 45.6%
Sacramento: 41.2%
Seattle 40.4%

DC: 40.3%
Portland: 39.5%
Miami: 37.1%
Tuscon: 36.5%
Fresno: 35.9%
Oklahoma City: 35.2%
Columbus: 35.1%
Indianapolis: 32.5
San Diego: 31.2%
Richmond: 30.5%

Minneapolis: 28.3%
Kansas City: 25.8%
Cincinnati: 24.4%
San Jose: 23.3%
Louisville: 20.6%
San Francisco: 19%
Virginia Beach/Norfolk: 16.1%
Memphis: 15.7%
Baltimore: 14.1%
Boston: 10.9%

Philadelphia: 9.6%
Los Angeles: 8.6%
St. Louis: 7.2%
New York: 4.9%
Milwaukee: 4.6%
Providence: 3.5%
Chicago: -5%
Detroit: -5.7%
Cleveland: -5.8%
Pittsburgh: -8.4%
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Old 05-11-2023, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
12,163 posts, read 8,002,089 times
Reputation: 10134
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
Just to piggyback, here are the would be/could be/never was growth rates of the above 50 MSA's from the 2020 census:

Austin: 107.3%
Cape Coral: 102.6%
Las Vegas: 96.4%
Raleigh: 87.5%
McAllen: 81.2%
Orlando: 79.6%
Phoenix: 73.3%
Dallas: 68.4%
Houston: 66.5%
San Antonio: 63.2%

Charlotte: 63.1%
Riverside: 60.8%
Nashville: 60%
Jacksonville: 57.9%
Atlanta: 56.8%
Tampa: 48.1%
Denver: 47.4%
Salt Lake City: 45.6%
Sacramento: 41.2%
Seattle 40.4%

DC: 40.3%
Portland: 39.5%
Miami: 37.1%
Tuscon: 36.5%
Fresno: 35.9%
Oklahoma City: 35.2%
Columbus: 35.1%
Indianapolis: 32.5
San Diego: 31.2%
Richmond: 30.5%

Minneapolis: 28.3%
Kansas City: 25.8%
Cincinnati: 24.4%
San Jose: 23.3%
Louisville: 20.6%
San Francisco: 19%
Virginia Beach/Norfolk: 16.1%
Memphis: 15.7%
Baltimore: 14.1%
Boston: 10.9%

Philadelphia: 9.6%
Los Angeles: 8.6%
St. Louis: 7.2%
New York: 4.9%
Milwaukee: 4.6%
Providence: 3.5%
Chicago: -5%
Detroit: -5.7%
Cleveland: -5.8%
Pittsburgh: -8.4%
lol Boston added almost the same growth from 2010-2020 (9%) then they predict from 2020-2060.

Same with New York 5%
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Old 05-11-2023, 08:58 AM
 
4,159 posts, read 2,847,570 times
Reputation: 5516
Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
lol Boston added almost the same growth from 2010-2020 (9%) then they predict from 2020-2060.

Same with New York 5%
But from 1970-2020, Boston and NYC grew about 26% and 18% respectively in a country that grew 65%. If the national slowdown in growth is indeed coming, Boston and NYC seem some of the cities most likely to feel the effects most acutely.

That said, it's probably best to look at the groupings of cities than the actual numbers, if only to get a potential glimpse of a possible future along with a giant grain of salt.
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Old 05-11-2023, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
12,163 posts, read 8,002,089 times
Reputation: 10134
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
But from 1970-2020, Boston and NYC grew about 26% and 18% respectively in a country that grew 65%. If the national slowdown in growth is indeed coming, Boston and NYC seem some of the cities most likely to feel the effects most acutely.

That said, it's probably best to look at the groupings of cities than the actual numbers, if only to get a potential glimpse of a possible future along with a giant grain of salt.
meh, i dont know about that particularly. Maybe less than national average, but these are two extremely resilient metropolitan areas with fast growing economies. These aren't (Including SF, LA, Seattle, and DC) just suburban cities, these are huge metropolitan areas with an enormous amount of wealth and industry, fast growing mind you.

However, these cities and their Metros need to keep up housing production and transportation to stay competitive in the coming decades.

As climate change progresses, more sustainable cities will need to be prioritized.
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Old 05-11-2023, 09:44 AM
 
Location: New York City
9,379 posts, read 9,331,923 times
Reputation: 6509
Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
meh, i dont know about that particularly. Maybe less than national average, but these are two extremely resilient metropolitan areas with fast growing economies. These aren't (Including SF, LA, Seattle, and DC) just suburban cities, these are huge metropolitan areas with an enormous amount of wealth and industry, fast growing mind you.

However, these cities and their Metros need to keep up housing production and transportation to stay competitive in the coming decades.

As climate change progresses, more sustainable cities will need to be prioritized.
The point you mention about housing might be Boston's biggest hurdle.

Separately, the idea of predicting explosive growth anywhere for the next 60 years is not realistic. Not saying they won't see growth, but trends are signaling a national slowdown in population growth, birth rates, immigration, etc.
And that doesn't touch the topics of sustainability, economy, climate change, politics, COL (COL is a major factor), etc.

But my guess is as good as the next guess.
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Old 05-11-2023, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
12,163 posts, read 8,002,089 times
Reputation: 10134
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpomp View Post
The point you mention about housing might be Boston's biggest hurdle.

Separately, the idea of predicting explosive growth anywhere for the next 60 years is not realistic. Not saying they won't see growth, but trends are signaling a national slowdown in population growth, birth rates, immigration, etc.
And that doesn't touch the topics of sustainability, economy, climate change, politics, COL (COL is a major factor), etc.

But my guess is as good as the next guess.
yeah, Boston needs to build housing to keep it up. You are 100% right. Its not looking great either....

But yeah, any MSA growing over 100% is crazy.
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Old 05-11-2023, 10:25 AM
 
4,159 posts, read 2,847,570 times
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In 40 years, Austin grew over 300%, Orlando and Phoenix grew over 200%, Dallas and Houston grew around 150%. So even with a dramatic slowdown, I don’t think Austin growing 100% is that outlandish.
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Old 05-11-2023, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
26,405 posts, read 46,566,000 times
Reputation: 19539
Good luck with any of those projections actually validating by 2060 with the continual and rapid aging of the population along with declining birth rates. This could obviously change quite a bit in the next few decades, but the odds are getting less of that happening.
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Old 05-11-2023, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
12,163 posts, read 8,002,089 times
Reputation: 10134
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
In 40 years, Austin grew over 300%, Orlando and Phoenix grew over 200%, Dallas and Houston grew around 150%. So even with a dramatic slowdown, I don’t think Austin growing 100% is that outlandish.
Rapid Aging, Declining Birth Rates, Maxing out urban sprawl? Very unlikely.
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Old 05-11-2023, 11:01 AM
 
4,159 posts, read 2,847,570 times
Reputation: 5516
Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
Rapid Aging, Declining Birth Rates, Maxing out urban sprawl? Very unlikely.
You probably had 20+ metros grow 100% the last 40-year cycle. Expecting a couple to grow that much the next 40 years is already projecting a massive slowdown.
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