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I wonder what kind of wild, economic downturn this group is predicting for eastern MA to have so little growth over 60 years. For comparison, Essex County is currently at ~807,000 and it grew by ~84,000 just in the 20ish years between 2000 and now.
This list has Essex Country growing by only 83,000 over 3 times that duration.
And Suffolk County had 896,000 in 1950. Considering the relative economic health of Boston, Chelsea, and Revere compared the last couple decades, not to mention the amount of new apartments being built in those cities, it seems wild that the pop wouldn’t come even remotely close the historic max even after 60 years…
I wonder what kind of wild, economic downturn this group is predicting for eastern MA to have so little growth over 60 years. For comparison, Essex County is currently at ~807,000 and it grew by ~84,000 just in the 20ish years between 2000 and now.
This list has Essex Country growing by only 83,000 over 3 times that duration.
And Suffolk County had 896,000 in 1950. Considering the relative economic health of Boston, Chelsea, and Revere compared the last couple decades, not to mention the amount of new apartments being built in those cities, it seems wild that the pop wouldn’t come even remotely close the historic max even after 60 years…
welll tbf, a lot of that was tenement housing and heavy immigrant families where 10-15+ people in a single triple decker. Now its more or less 5-10 people in a single triple decker. I don't think places like Boston or Manhattan will ever see the amount of residents per dwelling unit like they did in the first half of the twentieth century.
even the 1950s-2000s when family's would live there, units were being replaced with singles and young professionals.
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even the 1950s-2000s when family's would live there, units were being replaced with singles and young professionals.
Even considering smaller household sizes, Revere’s population increased 20.2% over just 10 years. Chelsea’s increased by 15.9%. Boston’s by 9.4%.
And yet we should believe that collectively the three are only going to grow by ~5% over the course of 40 years? That’s nuts.
Mayor Wu expressed interest/optimism in seeing Boston’s population reach 800,000 presumably within or shortly after her tenure. That alone would put Suffolk County over the 840,000 in the prediction for 2060.
Last edited by Boston Shudra; 05-11-2023 at 11:57 AM..
In 40 years, Austin grew over 300%, Orlando and Phoenix grew over 200%, Dallas and Houston grew around 150%. So even with a dramatic slowdown, I don’t think Austin growing 100% is that outlandish.
But the growth rates are only "lower" in the prediction because they started from a low baseline in the past. They're still assuming the relative same amount of raw numerical growth in the next 40 years, which is pretty preposterous for even the fastest-growing cities in the US.
Demographic decline WILL happen; it's already well in the works and likely to get more severe globally. That means fewer immigrants in addition to fewer births domestically.
And for the Sun Belt that depends so greatly on in-migration from the Northeast and Midwest?
Guess what happens to their growth when there's fewer people left in states like New York and Illinois to migrate? It's a domino effect.
Even considering smaller household sizes, Revere’s population increased 20.2% over just 10 years. Chelsea’s increased by 15.9%. Boston’s by 9.4%.
And yet we should believe that collectively the three are only going to grow by ~5% over the course of 40 years? That’s nuts.
Mayor Wu expressed interest/optimism in seeing Boston’s population reach 800,000 presumably within or shortly after her tenure. That alone would put Suffolk County over the 840,000 in the prediction for 2060.
No one should ever predict the future by calling upon the past, however. If there's anything that's certain today, it's that we have much more uncertainty globally than ever before.
Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but the confluence of economic and demographic forces brewing now all but guarantees that.
Even considering smaller household sizes, Revere’s population increased 20.2% over just 10 years. Chelsea’s increased by 15.9%. Boston’s by 9.4%.
And yet we should believe that collectively the three are only going to grow by ~5% over the course of 40 years? That’s nuts.
Mayor Wu expressed interest/optimism in seeing Boston’s population reach 800,000 presumably within or shortly after her tenure. That alone would put Suffolk County over the 840,000 in the prediction for 2060.
Well Boston is set to deliver under 5,000 residential units this year. A bit rich of Wu to assume that population when they can't even build apartments or condos lol
But the growth rates are only "lower" in the prediction because they started from a low baseline in the past. They're still assuming the relative same amount of raw numerical growth in the next 40 years, which is pretty preposterous for even the fastest-growing cities in the US.
That doesn't follow. Dallas in 1980 was bigger than Austin is now. Austin is still projected to grow at about half the rate Dallas did then (which added nearly 5 million in 40 years, where here they are expecting about 2.5 million for Austin). It's possible it will be even slower, who knows. But the idea they haven't already factored in a massive slowdown is wrong.
Well Boston is set to deliver under 5,000 residential units this year. A bit rich of Wu to assume that population when they can't even build apartments or condos lol
Source? Even if true, 5000 units per year for 40 years would mean at least 200,000 new residents if they all get filled and they’re all studios.
Once again throwing that 2060 number for the County well over 840k.
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