How will Houston's economy fare over the next 5 years? (fit in, 2013)

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by julia1999

Agree, even for people working in O&G, the price war needs attention. It usually takes three or four months for the industry to respond to the gas price war, including job cut, exploration slow down, etc. They need to take measures to adjust the profit drop anyway. Business is business.

What price war are you speaking of?

[texsn95]

lol

[cBach]

Maybe inside the loop will finally become affordable again once the bust happens?

[SouthernBoy205]

I guess the best way is to just wait until the future gets here because everyone has their own interpretation about what Houston's economy may or may not endure. I think making personal claims is going to make the topic even more confusing.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

What price war are you speaking of?

I'm guessing the price war with OPEC

Originally Posted by cBach

Maybe inside the loop will finally become affordable again once the bust happens?

It is affordable to a lot of people now !

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

I guess the best way is to just wait until the future gets here because everyone has their own interpretation about what Houston's economy may or may not endure. I think making personal claims is going to make the topic even more confusing.

You are so right Citigroup says oil would have to fall to at least $50 a barrel for domestic oil production to be cut back...

"It would take a drop in crude prices to about $50 a barrel before U.S. oil production growth would be choked off.
That's the finding in a new report from Citigroup energy analysts. They said the two-year low in U.S. oil prices is not yet stalling growth of U.S. crude production, and even at $70 per barrel, the industry would continue to increase production."

This is the price that would kill U.S. oil production growth

Stop the panic people !

[Meyerland]

Originally Posted by p0opstlnksal0t

that happens every peak of the boom wave. This happened to me any many other engineers over the last 15 years. 08-09 was the trough and we are riding back up the wave now. The down turn will happen sooner than later and we will see another trough with engineers, designer, construction crews, etc... all stagnant and slowed down to a trickle until the next wave hits and oil prices are high. companies dont invest in new projects unless they are profitable. when oil and energy prices are low the new work slows to a crawl or nothing at all.

We've personally weathered the ups and downs for twenty years no problem.

Everyone should have enough money to live off of ûntil they find a new job. That's the nature of the O&G business.

[cockermom]

Originally Posted by p0opstlnksal0t

that happens every peak of the boom wave. This happened to me any many other engineers over the last 15 years. 08-09 was the trough and we are riding back up the wave now. The down turn will happen sooner than later and we will see another trough with engineers, designer, construction crews, etc... all stagnant and slowed down to a trickle until the next wave hits and oil prices are high. companies dont invest in new projects unless they are profitable. when oil and energy prices are low the new work slows to a crawl or nothing at all.

You're absolutely right. Companies don't invest in new projects unless they are profitable and alas, there aren't many new projects right now. The downturn is happening now whether people in the industry want to acknowledge it or not, and it will continue to get worse before it gets better as it usually does based on the past. Upstream is being hit and several O&G contractors have already begun layoffs most likely because some of the major O&G companies are not renewing staff contractors' contracts when they're up for renewal due to lack of work in upstream. I suspect it's only a matter of time before some O&G upstream engineers are offered early retirement packages (but maybe they'll get lucky and will avoid that). Will be interesting to see what happens in 2015.

[jfre81]

As oil price falls, city remembers and prepares - Houston Chronicle

"But other efforts to expand the job base have produced mixed results. Wal-Mart and H.E.B. have become two of the biggest employers. United Airlines ranks high on the list, but makes its headquarters in Chicago, where it chose to remain after merging with a locally based competitor, Continental. The presence of Compaq Computer, founded here in 1982, diminished when the company was acquired by Hewlett-Packard. NASA's ambitions faded, and the private space industry has taken flight elsewhere. Ship channel trade has expanded modestly. A mechanical engineering sector has announced itself.

In several interviews on the topic of economic diversification, some of the city's most prominent cheerleaders mentioned the medical center expansion, then trailed off."

[SouthernBoy205]

This topic is so confusing. I don't know what to believe.

[Htown2013]

Even if there is a temporary slowdown, long term energy prices will continue to increase. If a few of the fledgling O&G firms cease production, supply will decrease and bring prices to equilibrium. While I see a slowdown in growth, I do not forsee an O&G bust for Houston.