Houston Market Cooling? Buyers Market? (Dallas: loans, home, unemployment)

[As Above So Below...]

All I know is this, houses are selling for less now than they were in 2015. My neighbor bought a house almost identical to mine for 40k less than I paid. Whether or not the Houston housing market is healthy is subjective but it’s at the very least cheaper.

[jfre81]

Yeah. Moving along.

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

All I know is this, houses are selling for less now than they were in 2015. My neighbor bought a house almost identical to mine for 40k less than I paid. Whether or not the Houston housing market is healthy is subjective but it’s at the very least cheaper.

This really sounds to me more like a correction from things getting run up a bit much on the back end of the last boom, bubble or whatever one's preferred term would be.

Not a bad thing in and of itself unless, of course, you have a house on the market. In which case you're definitely projecting a bullish message about the local housing market.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

All I know is this, houses are selling for less now than they were in 2015. My neighbor bought a house almost identical to mine for 40k less than I paid. Whether or not the Houston housing market is healthy is subjective but it’s at the very least cheaper.

A correction may be happening but using a couple of anecdotal examples as indicative the entire market is softening isn't fair. Housing appraisals and sales in my neighborhood are appreciating rapidly. Of course we are in a sweet spot of decent housing under 200k which is in very short supply in Greater Houston these days

Originally Posted by jfre81

Yeah. Moving along.



This really sounds to me more like a correction from things getting run up a bit much on the back end of the last boom, bubble or whatever one's preferred term would be.

Not a bad thing in and of itself unless, of course, you have a house on the market. In which case you're definitely projecting a bullish message about the local housing market.

I believe the Zillow source said the Housing markets in Dallas , Denver and Houston were over priced so this isn't peculiar to the Houston market. The high end market in Houston is in steep decline, a million dollar home (which is high end in Houston , but maybe not in other markets) takes over a year to sell, my guess that's the same story all over the country

[dd1153]

If you want a look at the Houston housing market look at employment and start permits for single family homes. Based on employment in Houston and the estimated 2020 start permits Houston is under supplied.

If your area is selling for less money than 2016 It doesn’t mean the market is going soft. Many factors and variables can impact this, most notability flooding.

Houston real estate market is sitting at a 3.8 month supply. Historically anything under 6 months is considered a sellers market. Properly priced homes are still selling quick.

[ganadocoog]

Originally Posted by dd1153

Properly priced homes are still selling quick.

If anything is priced low enough it will "sell quick". The only real metric that matters in my opinion is how much $$$ and how quickly "like" homes in "like" areas sell across time. My belief is that prices peaked in late 2017/early 2018. I think it was a function of an overzealous turbocharging of the market in the first year or so after Trump took office coupled with a temporary restriction in home supply due to Harvey.

[dd1153]

Originally Posted by ganadocoog

If anything is priced low enough it will "sell quick". The only real metric that matters in my opinion is how much $$$ and how quickly "like" homes in "like" areas sell across time. My belief is that prices peaked in late 2017/early 2018. I think it was a function of an overzealous turbocharging of the market in the first year or so after Trump took office coupled with a temporary restriction in home supply due to Harvey.

IMO prices haven’t peaked yet.
Low rates and low supply will drive up prices higher than 2018 in 2020.

Remember rates this time last year we’re near 5.5% - almost 2% lower today.

The supply is low and demand is high. Boom time.

[gwarnecke]

Originally Posted by dd1153

IMO prices haven’t peaked yet.
Low rates and low supply will drive up prices higher than 2018 in 2020.

Remember rates this time last year we’re near 5.5% - almost 2% lower today.

The supply is low and demand is high. Boom time.

Is supply low? I guess this varies neighborhood to neighborhood, but where I'm at in the Energy Corridor, supply far exceeds the levels that were driving the rapid price appreciation of 2010-2015. Back then, our neighborhood might have 1-3 homes for sale at any given time. Right now it has about 10.

# of homes for sale has at least dropped quite a bit from the peak a year or so ago, when a ton of Harvey-flooded and rebuilt homes were put on the market at once.

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by gwarnecke

# of homes for sale has at least dropped quite a bit from the peak a year or so ago, when a ton of Harvey-flooded and rebuilt homes were put on the market at once.

"Newly updated"

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

I believe the Zillow source said the Housing markets in Dallas , Denver and Houston were over priced

Zillow and I would be in agreement.

Dallas and Houston ran up at the same time for similar reasons. Denver had, shall we say, entirely different reasons for its rapid growth around the same time.

[dd1153]

Originally Posted by jfre81

"Newly updated"

Zillow and I would be in agreement.

Dallas and Houston ran up at the same time for similar reasons. Denver had, shall we say, entirely different reasons for its rapid growth around the same time.

The Dallas market got hot while the Houston market was cooling off, this was caused by oil prices dropping and the layoffs in Houston.

Since then, Dallas has slowed down while Houston has ramped up.

[dd1153]

Originally Posted by gwarnecke

Is supply low? I guess this varies neighborhood to neighborhood, but where I'm at in the Energy Corridor, supply far exceeds the levels that were driving the rapid price appreciation of 2010-2015. Back then, our neighborhood might have 1-3 homes for sale at any given time. Right now it has about 10.

# of homes for sale has at least dropped quite a bit from the peak a year or so ago, when a ton of Harvey-flooded and rebuilt homes were put on the market at once.

Yes I would say supply is low, based on the HAR Market Report, YoY we are at a 3.8 month supply of homes in Houston. Active listings are up only 5.2% while pending listings are up 23%.

Since the days on market is at 3.8 months, and pending sales are up 23% this means we are under supplied.

The market (as a whole) is absorbing housing faster than it can be supplied in Houston.

Combined that with low rates... jobs... booming economy and you have prices going up.

https://www.har.com/content/mls